APPLICATION OF A SEDIMENT ROUTING MODEL TO A MIDDLE EUROPEAN WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: A simulation model that computes sediment yield due to sheet and rill erosion at the outlet of a large watershed requires daily precipitation and the soil, topographic, and vegetative characteristics of the watershed. An important problem, particularly in a large watershed, is the transport of sediment produced in the sub-watersheds to the outlet of the whole watershed. This problem is approached mathematically by a sediment routing model that is used as a component of the total model.     

Low energy comsumption management of agricultural residues

In this paper, a mechanical filtering system to treat pig slurry is proposed. The filter was made from the aerobic decomposition product of the organic fraction of municipal wastes and wheat straw was used as the support.Using a pilot plant to treat 2100 liters of swine slurry, an adequate reduction in BOD₅; COD, and other parameters was obtained. The organic matter content of the material trapped in the filter was similar to that of compost and farmyard manure, but the nitrogen and phosphorous levels and the C/N ratio were more similar to farmyard manure. After passing through a filtering system, the treated liquid can be used for fertirrigation and as a feed for algae ponds. After a period of stabilization, the solid material can be mixed to produce manure. Although wheat straw was used as the support in this experiment, other agricultural wastes such as rice straw, corn stalks, millet stems, banana, cotton, and coconut trash can be used. Rather than municipal solid waste compost, other kinds of compost obtained from agricultural wastes such as leaves, bark, husks, etc., can be used as the filter.     

Mitigation of hydrogen fluoride aerosols by dry powders

Fluid bed tests were used to determine overall reaction rates for eight different dry powders of low hazard and toxicity before and after reaction with HF. In flow chamber tests, a representative oxide, hydroxide and carbonate were used to measure the efficiency of mitigation of an HF aerosol cloud. The results show that dry powders provide a valid alternative to water spray mitigation. Powder efficiencies are higher than water efficiencies at constant weight ratio.

At present, no attempt has been made to provide any technical designs or layouts for powder mitigation systems. However, the technology for smaller systems is available through manufacturers of dry powder chemical fire extinguisher equipment. When these powders are kept dry and under nitrogen atmosphere, a shelf life of several years can be expected.     

Time series analysis of coal mine accident experience

This study investigates several forecasting techniques that can be useful to mine safety managers for studying mine accident rate behavior. Three time series models were studied for extrapolation of accident rates. These models are applied to historical accident incidence data from a coal mine. Further, a method is presented for evaluating the three models for the selection of an appropriate model. For this particular mine application, it is concluded that the more complex Box-Jenkins ARMA model as well as first order autoregressive model do not give better results than the simple exponential smoothing model. However, when the random variations or autocorrelations in the accident experience rates between periods are different, the models may predict differently. As such, specific models must be developed for each mine on the basis of statistical analysis of the mine accident experience data over time. Moreover, the importance of incorporating human judgement to interpret the results of statistical forecasting cannot be overemphasized. Integration of policy or operating changes, which may impact mine safety performance, with statistical forecasting techniques is essential to arrive at a realistic prediction of future performance.     

ON THE USE OF SEEPAGE METERS TO ESTIMATE GROUNDWATER NUTRIENT LOADING TO LAKES1

Data from a study on East Lake Tohopekaliga, Florida, indicate that the seepage meter measurement method may often overestimate nutrient contributions to lakes. Nutrient loading data from this method and a method employing lakeside piezometer nutrient data and seepage meter flows were not comparable. Seepage nutrient loading from the meter and piezometer methods comprised 39 and 18 percent of the nitrogen budget and 38 and 9 percent of the phosphorus budget, respectively, for East Lake Tohopekaliga. In terms of water, groundwater seepage accounted for only 14 percent of the total input to the lake. It is felt that some of the past studies using the seepage meter method to estimate nutrient loading may be in error due to reasons related to the enclosure of lake sediments by the meter and the accompanying anaerobic conditions which quickly result.     

Treatment of risk in environmental impact assessment

Risk assessment and environmental impact assessment have developed as separate traditions. While environmental impact assessment is a broad field that includes all activities that attempt to analyze and evaluate the effects of human and related actions on the environment, risk assessment has been concerned with the relatively well-defined regulatory problems and employs formal quantitative analysis of the probability of specific undesired events, such as cancer. Risk analytic approaches, particularly the explicit treatment of uncertainty, can significantly contribute to environmental assessments. This article discusses the type and sources of uncertainty in environmental assessments, techniques for their quantification, and ways to use uncertainty estimates to calculate probabilities of effects or probabilities of exceeding environmental standards and to determine the need for mitigation or additional research.This article was presented at the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis, Task Force Meeting on Risk and Policy Analysis under Conditions of Uncertainty, Laxenburg, Austria, November 1985.     

Ecological effects of coastal marsh impoundments: A review

Many coastal resource managers believe estuarine marshes are critically important to estuarine fish and shellfish, not only because of the habitat present for juvenile stages, but also because of the export of detritus and plant nutrients that are consumed in the estuary. Concern has been widely expressed that diking and flooding marshes (impounding) for mosquito control and waterfowl management interferes with these values of marshes. Major changes caused by impoundment include an increase in water level, a decrease in salinity, and a decrease in the exchange of marsh water with estuarine water. Alteration of species composition is dramatic after impoundment. Changes in overall production and transport phenomena, however—and the consequences of these changes— may not be as great in some cases as the concern about these has implied. Although few data are available, a more important concern may be the reduction of access by estuarine fish and shellfish to the abundant foods and cover available in many natural, as well as impounded, marshes. Perhaps even more important is the occasional removal of free access to open water when conditions become unfavorable in impounded marsh that is periodically opened and closed. Collection of comparative data on the estuarine animal use of various configurations of natural and impounded marshes by estuarine animals should lead to improved management of both impounded and unimpounded marshes.     

SENSITIVITY OF HIGH-ELEVATION STREAMS IN THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE PROVINCE TO ACIDIC DEPOSITION1

ABSTRACT: The Southern Blue Ridge Province, which encompasses parts of northern Georgia, eastern Tennessee, and western North Carolina, has been predicted to be sensitive to impacts from acidic deposition, owing to the chemical composition of the bedrock geology and soils. This study confirms the predicted potential sensitivity, quantifies the level of total alkalinity and describes the chemical characteristics of 30 headwater streams of this area. Water chemistry was measured five times between April 1983 and June 1984 at first and third order reaches of each stream during baseflow conditions. Sensitivity based on total alkalinity and the Calcite Saturation Index indicates that the headwater streams of the Province are vulnerable to acidification. Total alkalinity and p11 were generally higher in third order reaches (mean, 72 μeq/θ and 6.7) than in first order reaches (64 μeq/θ and 6.4). Ionic concentrations were low, averaging 310 and 340 μeq/θ in first and third order reaches, respectively. A single sampling appears adequate for evaluating sensitivity based on total alkalinity, but large temporal variability requires multiple sampling for the detection of changes in pH and alkalinity over time. Monitoring of stream water should continue in order to detect any subtle effects of acidic deposition on these unique resource systems.     

CALCULATION OF NONLINEAR CONFIDENCE AND PREDICTION INTERVALS FOR GROUND-WATER FLOW MODELS1

ABSTRACT: A method is derived to efficiently compute nonlinear confidence and prediction intervals on any function of parameters derived as output from a mathematical model of a physical system. The method is applied to the problem of obtaining confidence and prediction intervals for manually-calibrated ground-water flow models. To obtain confidence and prediction intervals resulting from uncertainties in parameters, the calibrated model and information on extreme ranges and ordering of the model parameters within one or more independent groups are required. If random errors in the dependent variable are present in addition to uncertainties in parameters, then calculation of prediction intervals also requires information on the extreme range of error expected. A simple Monte Carlo method is used to compute the quantiles necessary to establish probability levels for the confidence and prediction intervals. Application of the method to a hypothetical example showed that includsion of random errors in the dependent variable in addition to uncertainties in parameters can considerably widen the prediction intervals.