Long‐Term High‐Resolution Radar Rainfall Fields for Urban Hydrology

Accurate records of high‐resolution rainfall fields are essential in urban hydrology, and are lacking in many areas. We develop a high‐resolution (15 min, 1 km²) radar rainfall data set for Charlotte, North Carolina during the 2001‐2010 period using the Hydro‐NEXRAD system with radar reflectivity from the National Weather Service Weather Surveillance Radar 1988 Doppler weather radar located in Greer, South Carolina. A dense network of 71 rain gages is used for estimating and correcting radar rainfall biases. Radar rainfall estimates with daily mean field bias (MFB) correction accurately capture the spatial and temporal structure of extreme rainfall, but bias correction at finer timescales can improve cold‐season and tropical cyclone rainfall estimates. Approximately 25 rain gages are sufficient to estimate daily MFB over an area of at least 2,500 km², suggesting that robust bias correction is feasible in many urban areas. Conditional (rain‐rate dependent) bias can be removed, but at the expense of other performance criteria such as mean square error. Hydro‐NEXRAD radar rainfall estimates are also compared with the coarser resolution (hourly, 16 km²) Stage IV operational rainfall product. Stage IV is adequate for flood water balance studies but is insufficient for applications such as urban flood modeling, in which the temporal and spatial scales of relevant hydrologic processes are short. We recommend the increased use of high‐resolution radar rainfall fields in urban hydrology.     

Application of multiple-population viability analysis to evaluate species recovery alternatives

Population viability analysis (PVA) is a powerful conservation tool, but it remains impractical for many species, particularly species with multiple, broadly distributed populations for which collecting suitable data can be challenging. A recently developed method of multiple-population viability analysis (MPVA), however, addresses many limitations of traditional PVA. We built on previous development of MPVA for Lahontan cutthroat trout (LCT) (Oncorhynchus clarkii henshawi), a species listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, that is distributed broadly across habitat fragments in the Great Basin (U.S.A.). We simulated potential management scenarios and assessed their effects on population sizes and extinction risks in 211 streams, where LCT exist or may be reintroduced. Conservation populations (those managed for recovery) tended to have lower extinction risks than nonconservation populations (mean = 19.8% vs. 52.7%), but not always. Active management or reprioritization may be warranted in some cases. Eliminating non-native trout had a strong positive effect on overall carrying capacities for LCT populations but often did not translate into lower extinction risks unless simulations also reduced associated stochasticity (to the mean for populations without non-native trout). Sixty fish or 5–10 fish/km was the minimum reintroduction number and density, respectively, that provided near-maximum reintroduction success. This modeling framework provided crucial insights and empirical justification for conservation planning and specific adaptive management actions for this threatened species. More broadly, MPVA is applicable to a wide range of species exhibiting geographic rarity and limited availability of abundance data and greatly extends the potential use of empirical PVA for conservation assessment and planning.     

The decision gym: decision insurance for organizations

Conducting decision calisthenics can help an organization win competitive advantage through harnessing its tremendous knowledge, imagination, and staff experience. The paper explores how knowledge and experience mined and refined through innovative approaches like scenarios and war gaming can turn visionary ideas into successful, working realities. To fully appreciate the value of novel frameworks requires contextualizing their utility in what can be called the decision gym. The decision gym offers a way to build powerful consensus and commitment to decisions, methods to optimize processes, and a way to create, evaluate, and execute critical strategies in the face of heuristics and biases that can distort decision making.     

Sensitivity of streamflow and microbial water quality to future climate and land use change in the West of Ireland

Regional Environmental Change - This study applied catchment modeling to examine the potential effects of climate change and future land management variations on streamflow and microbial transport...     

Comparing Hydrogeomorphic Approaches to Lake Classification

A classification system is often used to reduce the number of different ecosystem types that governmental agencies are charged with monitoring and managing. We compare the ability of several different hydrogeomorphic (HGM)—based classifications to group lakes for water chemistry/clarity. We ask: (1) Which approach to lake classification is most successful at classifying lakes for similar water chemistry/clarity? (2) Which HGM features are most strongly related to the lake classes? and, (3) Can a single classification successfully classify lakes for all of the water chemistry/clarity variables examined? We use univariate and multivariate classification and regression tree (CART and MvCART) analysis of HGM features to classify alkalinity, water color, Secchi, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and chlorophyll a from 151 minimally disturbed lakes in Michigan USA. We developed two MvCART models overall and two CART models for each water chemistry/clarity variable, in each case comparing: local HGM characteristics alone and local HGM characteristics combined with regionalizations and landscape position. The combined CART models had the highest strength of evidence (ω_i range 0.92–1.00) and maximized within class homogeneity (ICC range 36–66%) for all water chemistry/clarity variables except water color and chlorophyll a. Because the most successful single classification was on average 20% less successful in classifying other water chemistry/clarity variables, we found that no single classification captures variability for all lake responses tested. Therefore, we suggest that the most successful classification (1) is specific to individual response variables, and (2) incorporates information from multiple spatial scales (regionalization and local HGM variables).     

Understanding stewardship behaviour: factors facilitating and constraining private water well stewardship

Regulatory frameworks to ensure municipal drinking water safety exist in most North American jurisdictions. However, similar protection is rarely provided to people reliant on water provided from private wells. In Canada, approximately 4 million people depend on privately owned, domestic wells for their drinking water. Numerous studies have shown that people who rely on private wells for their water supplies are at risk from nitrate and bacterial contamination. Given the fact that regulations relating to private wells tend to be weak or poorly enforced, actions taken by well owners to protect their own drinking water safety are extremely important. Drawing on one of the largest and most comprehensive surveys of private well owners ever conducted in Canada or elsewhere, this paper explores factors that influence well owner stewardship behaviour. Key behaviours examined included annual testing of well water and inspection of wells, measures to protect water quality, and proper decommissioning of unused wells. A geographically-stratified survey, sent to 4950 well owners in Ontario, Canada, resulted in an effective response rate of 34% (n = 1567). Logistic regression analyses revealed that motivations for well stewardship behaviours included reassurance, the perception of problems, and knowledge of the environment. Knowing how to perform stewardship behaviours was an important antecedent to action. Barriers to stewardship included complacency, inconvenience, ignorance, cost, and privacy concerns. To promote stewardship, local initiatives, better educational materials, and enforcement through real estate laws are all required. Ultimately, drinking water safety for people reliant on private wells is shown to be a responsibility shared by governments and private well owners.     

Nitrate production and availability in residential soils

The rapid increase in residential land area in the United States has raised concern about water pollution associated with nitrogen fertilizers. Nitrate (NO3-) is the form of reactive N that is most susceptible to leaching and runoff; thus, a more thorough understanding of nitrification and NO3(-) availability is needed if we are to accurately predict the consequences of residential expansion for water quality. In particular, there have been few assessments of how the land use history, housing density, and age of residential soils influence NO3(-) pools and fluxes, especially at depth. In this study, we used 1 m deep soil cores to evaluate potential net nitrification and mineralization, microbial respiration and biomass, and soil NO3(-) and NH4+ pools in 32 residential home lawns that differed by previous land use and age, but had similar soil types. These were compared to eight forested reference sites with similar soils. Our results suggest that a change to residential land use has increased pools and production of reactive N, which has clear implications for water quality in the region. However, the results contradict the common assumption that NO3(-) production and availability is dramatically higher in residential soils than in forests in general. While net nitrification (128.6 +/- 15.5 mg m(-2) d(-1) vs. 4.7 +/- 2.3 mg m(-2) d(-1); mean +/- SE) and exchangeable NO3(-) (3.8 +/- 0.5 g/m2 vs. 0.7 +/- 0.3 g/m2) were significantly higher in residential soils than in forest soils in this study, these measures of NO3(-) production and availability were still notably low, comparable to deciduous forest stands in other studies. A second unexpected result was that current homeowner management practices were not predictive of NO3(-) availability or production. This may reflect the transient availability of inorganic N after fertilizer application. Higher housing density and a history of agricultural land use were predictors of greater NO3(-) availability in residential soils. If these factors are good predictors across a wider range of sites, they may be useful indicators of NO3(-) availability and leaching and runoff potential at the landscape scale.