Socioeconomic Driving Factors of Nitrogen Load from Food Consumption and Preventive Measures

To diagnose environmental nitrogen (N) load from food consumption and to suggest preventive measures, this study identified relationships between nitrogen load from food consumption and driving factors by examining six representative countries and regions for the period 1970–2009 as an example. The logarithmic mean Divisia index technique was used to disassemble nitrogen load growth into four driving factors: population, economic activity, food intensity of the economy, and nitrogen content of food. In all study areas, increased economic activity was the main factor driving nitrogen load increase. The positive effect of population growth was relatively small but not negligible and changes in food intensity had a decreasing effect on nitrogen load. Changes in nitrogen content of food varied between areas. Broad strategies to reduce and mitigate nitrogen loading and decouple nitrogen load from economic growth in both developed and developing countries are suggested.     

Comparative analysis on the genetic population structures of the deep-sea whelks <Emphasis Type="Italic">Buccinum tsubai</Emphasis> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Neptunea constricta</Emphasis> in the Sea of Japan

The population structures of Buccinum tsubai and Neptunea constricta were compared using partial sequences of the mitochondrial COI gene. B. tsubai included four genetically distinguishable subpopulations (Hokkaido, Yamagata-Toyama, Yamato Bank, and San’in), which is consistent with the results of our previous study using mitochondrial 16SrRNA sequences. The genetic structure of N. constricta was also clear, but the lineage sorting corresponding to the geographical distribution was not as clear as that of B. tsubai. The difference between the genetic structures of these two species might be due to a difference in either their dispersal abilities or the historic distribution patterns in the Sea of Japan. The fossil record and nested clade analyses support the latter alternative. The four subpopulations of B. tsubai are estimated to have diverged 0.42–1.46 million years ago, providing support for the existence of intermediate water of normal salinity and oxygen concentration capable of sustaining B. tsubai between the low-salinity surface water and anoxic deep water during the Pleistocene glacial periods. The genetic diversity of the Yamato Bank subpopulation of B. tsubai was lower than that of the other subpopulations, which is likely attributable to the small size of the Yamato Bank subpopulation.     

Scientific understanding of stakeholders’ behavior in mining community

We attempt to understand, scientifically, how different members of the mining concession, impacted communities, and government authorities behave when a conflicting situation arises. The main purpose of our effort is to start developing a framework for the scientific modeling of stakeholders’ behavior, and we create a reality-driven generic scenario of conflict. We assume that the managers and superintendants of a mining operation currently envision a problem; one that tests the limits of the commitment of the company’s mission statement, and of the spectrum of actions taken which are embedded in the “culture” of the company’s corporate social responsibility. It is an “event” that highlights the nature of an overall problem that the company would like to predict and act proactively: the integration of scientific tools, sustainability, and cultural realities within a mining framework. We adapt an agent-based modeling approach and start with a theoretical understanding of certain social behavior, build a model, and simulate “what if” scenarios to understand its dynamics to gain a better insight of the complexity of a seemingly simple social system of interest.     

Recycling and consumption in Germany and Japan: a case of toilet paper

This paper compares the recycling attitudes of consumers in Germany and Japan, based on our nationwide questionnaires. We analyzed consumption behavior as well as recycling behavior in narrow sense, because it is important to study the former to see how the supply of recycled materials is balanced with the demand, particularly in Japan which exports little recycled materials. Toilet paper was adopted as a specific good for study, because consumers have options of buying virgin products and recycled products. It was found that German households pay for waste collection specifically and have higher recycling rates than Japanese households. On the other hand, similar figures in German and Japanese consumers were observed with regard to consumption of recycled products. Their purchasing criteria and preference on virgin and recycled products of toilet paper were examined by self-report and blind test with 2×2 experimental design for toilet paper (German versus Japanese, virgin versus recycled). Blind test showed that people prefer domestic and virgin products in both countries. Half of respondents rating virgin products guessed that the products contained recycled material. For Japanese, the material of the sample toilet paper, made from virgin pulp, seems to be a more determining factor than the nationality of products, i.e. made in Japan. On the other hand, for Germans, the domestic nature seems to be a more dominant factor than the material, i.e. made from virgin material. Canonical discriminant analysis in conjunction with logistic regression based on self-reporting data detected the characters ‘multiplied’, ‘appearance’ and ‘brand’ as major factors making the difference in preference between the two countries. The possible reasons causing the similarity and dissimilarity between the two countries are discussed with reference to the background history.     

A global analysis of residential heating and cooling service demand and cost-effective energy consumption under different climate change scenarios up to 2050

Climate change and energy service demand exert influence on each other through temperature change and greenhouse gas emissions. We have consistently evaluated global residential thermal demand and energy consumption up to the year 2050 under different climate change scenarios. We first constructed energy service demand intensity (energy service demand per household) functions for each of three services (space heating, space cooling, and water heating). The space heating and cooling demand in 2050 in the world as a whole become 2.1–2.3 and 3.8–4.5 times higher than the figures for 2010, whose ranges are originated from different global warming scenarios. Cost-effective residential energy consumption to satisfy service demand until 2050 was analyzed keeping consistency among different socio-economic conditions, ambient temperature, and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission pathways using a global energy assessment model. Building shell improvement and fuel fuel-type transition reduce global final energy consumption for residential thermal heating by 30% in 2050 for a 2 °C target scenario. This study demonstrates that climate change affects residential space heating and cooling demand by regions, and their desirable strategies for cost-effective energy consumption depend on the global perspectives on CO₂ emission reduction. Building shell improvement and energy efficiency improvement and fuel fuel-type transition of end-use technologies are considered to be robust measures for residential thermal demand under uncertain future CO₂ emission pathways.     

The effect of bidirectional opinion diffusion on social license to operate

This is a companion paper to an earlier work in which an agent-based model is proposed by Nakagawa et al. for exploring the emergent phenomena of social license to operate (SLO) of a mining company. In this paper, the structure of the original model is described, along with the enhanced ability for the two-way diffusion of information and opinion among agents. This is achieved through the addition of a global “dialogue” variable, which dictates the extent to which higher influence agents accept opinion from agents of lower influence. Initial findings suggest that the bidirectional diffusion of information has a large effect on the time that the modelling population takes to reach a Social License consensus, and the effect is especially pronounced for low dialogue values. In other words, the Social License of communities characterized by a low preference for dialogue (as opposed to “top-down” mandated communication) will be largely affected by small changes in the preference for dialogue. Findings also suggest that as a modelling community becomes more and more open to dialogue, the effect on the time to consensus becomes less and less pronounced until it becomes negligible at a fairly low dialogue level.     

Thermal treatment of rice bran by portion-wise addition in the presence of an organo-iron catalyst

For raw organic wastes (ROWs) that are produced on a daily basis, a thermal treatment using an organo-iron catalyst with the ROW added in portion was examined for conversion to compost-like materials (CLMs). The mixture of initial materials (rice bran as a model ROW, red loam as a bulking agent, and an organo-iron catalyst) was incubated at 60?°C for 5?days. It was then heated at 170?°C for 8?h, and small portions of a mixture of rice bran and catalyst were added. This process was repeated a total of 45 times. The qualities of the CLMs were evaluated, based on the degree of humification of humic-like acids (HLAs) that were contained in the products. Thus, the HLAs were extracted from the prepared CLMs, and the levels of unsaturated carbons and oxygen- and nitrogen-containing compounds were analyzed and used as indices of the degree of humification. The influence of the initial materials on the degree of humification of the HLAs was investigated, and the highest degree of humification was obtained when red loam and the catalyst were both added with the initial materials.     

Finding regulation among seemingly unregulated populations: a practical framework for analyzing multivariate population time series for their interactions

The structure of ecological communities is often thought to be strongly influenced by population interactions. The interactions are often labeled as bottom-up and top-down control. Previous approaches to identify these processes often assume each population in the community is itself regulated. Therefore, each time series follows a stationary process. However, complex community structure and a lack of regulation in an individual population can result in inappropriate inferences based on traditional statistical approaches. Here, we introduce a statistical framework to analyze potentially non-stationary time series that are collectively regulated. We demonstrate the method with catch-per-unit-effort time series data of selected populations in the Gulf of Mexico. In the Gulf, we found that most of the time series data, which span 26 years, were non-stationary, thus individually unregulated. Species interaction patterns were location-dependent, but where brown shrimp interacted significantly with other species, we identified significant bottom-up forcing. On the other hand, we find almost no evidence of top-down forcing throughout the study areas.     

Terrestrial water cycle and the impact of climate change

The terrestrial water cycle and the impact of climate change are critical for agricultural and natural ecosystems. In this paper, we assess both by running a macro-scale water balance model under a baseline condition and 2 General Circulation Model (GCM)-based climate change scenarios. The results show that in 2021-2030, water demand will increase worldwide due to climate change. Water shortage is expected to worsen in western Asia, the Arabian Peninsula, northern and southern Africa, northeastern Australia, southwestern North America, and central South America. A significant increase in surface runoff is expected in southern Asia and a significant decrease is expected in northern South America. These changes will have implications for regional environment and socioeconomics.     

A Bayesian approach to probabilistic ecological risk assessment: risk comparison of nine toxic substances in Tokyo surface waters

Background, aim, and scope  

Quantitative risk comparison of toxic substances is necessary to decide which substances should be prioritized to achieve effective risk management. This study compared the ecological risk among nine major toxic substances (ammonia, bisphenol-A, chloroform, copper, hexavalent chromium, lead, manganese, nickel, and zinc) in Tokyo surface waters by adopting an integrated risk analysis procedure using Bayesian statistics.