Advancing effects analysis for integrated, large-scale wildfire risk assessment

In this article, we describe the design and development of a quantitative, geospatial risk assessment tool intended to facilitate monitoring trends in wildfire risk over time and to provide information useful in prioritizing fuels treatments and mitigation measures. The research effort is designed to develop, from a strategic view, a first approximation of how both fire likelihood and intensity influence risk to social, economic, and ecological values at regional and national scales. Three main components are required to generate wildfire risk outputs: (1) burn probability maps generated from wildfire simulations, (2) spatially identified highly valued resources (HVRs), and (3) response functions that describe the effects of fire (beneficial or detrimental) on the HVR. Analyzing fire effects has to date presented a major challenge to integrated risk assessments, due to a limited understanding of the type and magnitude of changes wrought by wildfire to ecological and other nonmarket values. This work advances wildfire effects analysis, recognizing knowledge uncertainty and appropriately managing it through the use of an expert systems approach. Specifically, this work entailed consultation with 10 fire and fuels program management officials from federal agencies with fire management responsibilities in order to define quantitative resource response relationships as a function of fire intensity. Here, we demonstrate a proof-of-concept application of the wildland fire risk assessment tool, using the state of Oregon as a case study.     

Nitrate, phosphate, and ammonium loads at subsurface drains: agroecosystems and nitrogen management

Artificial subsurface drainage in cropland creates pathways for nutrient movement into surface water; quantification of the relative impacts of common and theoretically improved management systems on these nutrient losses remains incomplete. This study was conducted to assess diverse management effects on long-term patterns (1998-2006) of NO, NH, and PO loads (). We monitored water flow and nutrient concentrations at subsurface drains in lysimeter plots planted to continuous corn ( L.) (CC), both phases of corn-soybean [ (L.) Merr.] rotations (corn, CS; soybean, SC), and restored prairie grass (PG). Corn plots were fertilized with preplant or sidedress urea-NHNO (UAN) or liquid swine manure injected in the fall (FM) or spring (SM). Restored PG reduced NO eightfold compared with fields receiving UAN (2.5 vs. 19.9 kg N ha yr; < 0.001), yet varying UAN application rates and timings did not affect NO across all CCUANs and CSUANs. The NO from CCFM (33.3 kg N ha yr) were substantially higher than for all other cropped fields including CCSM (average 19.8 kg N ha yr, < 0.001). With respect to NH and PO, only manured soils recorded high but episodic losses in certain years. Compared with the average of all other treatments, CCSM increased NH in the spring of 1999 (217 vs. 680 g N ha yr), while CCFM raised PO in the winter of 2005 (23 vs. 441 g P ha yr). Our results demonstrate that fall manuring increased nutrient losses in subsurface-drained cropland, and hence this practice should be redesigned for improvement or discouraged.     

Creating safe walkable streetscapes: Does house design and upkeep discourage incivilities in suburban neighbourhoods?

There is growing evidence that residents are more likely to walk in attractive neighbourhoods, and that negative visual cues can deter residents from engaging in physical activity. This study explored the premise that house design and upkeep could inhibit the incidence of physical disorder in suburban streets, thus contributing to a more pleasant walking environment for pedestrians. Street segments (n = 443) in new residential developments (n = 61) in Perth, Western Australia, were audited for house attributes that facilitate natural surveillance (e.g., porch/verandah) or indicate territoriality (e.g., garden/lawn upkeep), and physical incivilities. A composite index of street-level house attributes yielded highly significant associations with disorder (trend test p = 0.001) and graffiti (trend test p = 0.005), signifying that the cumulative effect of several key attributes had greater potential to discourage incivilities in the street than any single characteristic. The findings suggest house design and upkeep may contribute to the creation of safe, inviting streets for pedestrians.     

Feature Extraction Techniques for Measuring Piñon and Juniper Tree Cover and Density,and Comparison with Field-Based Management Surveys

Western North America is experiencing a dramatic expansion of piñon (Pinus spp.) and juniper (Juniperus spp.) (P-J) trees into shrub-steppe communities. Feature extracted data acquired from remotely sensed imagery can help managers rapidly and accurately assess this land cover change in order to manage rangeland ecosystems at a landscape-scale. The objectives of this study were to: (1) develop an effective and efficient method for accurately quantifying P-J tree canopy cover and density directly from high resolution photographs and (2) compare feature-extracted data to typical in-situ datasets used by land managers. Tree cover was extracted from aerial-photography using Feature Analyst^®. Tree density was calculated as the sum of the total number of individual polygons (trees) within the tree cover output file after isolation using a negative buffer post-processing technique. Feature-extracted data were compared to ground reference measurements from Utah’s Division of Wildlife Resources Range Trend Project (DWR-RTP). We found that the proposed feature-extraction techniques used for measuring cover and density were highly correlated to ground reference and DWR-RTP datasets. Feature-extracted measurements of cover generally showed a near 1:1 relationship to these data, while tree density was underestimated; however, after calibration for juvenile trees, a near 1:1 relationship was realized. Feature-extraction techniques used in this study provide an efficient method for assessing important rangeland indicators, including: density, cover, and extent of P-J tree encroachment. Correlations found between field and feature-extracted data provide evidence to support extrapolation between the two approaches when assessing woodland encroachment.     

A brief guide to model selection,multimodel inference and model averaging in behavioural ecology using Akaike’s information criterion

Akaike’s information criterion (AIC) is increasingly being used in analyses in the field of ecology. This measure allows one to compare and rank multiple competing models and to estimate which of them best approximates the “true” process underlying the biological phenomenon under study. Behavioural ecologists have been slow to adopt this statistical tool, perhaps because of unfounded fears regarding the complexity of the technique. Here, we provide, using recent examples from the behavioural ecology literature, a simple introductory guide to AIC: what it is, how and when to apply it and what it achieves. We discuss multimodel inference using AIC—a procedure which should be used where no one model is strongly supported. Finally, we highlight a few of the pitfalls and problems that can be encountered by novice practitioners.     

Mitigation of atrazine, S-metolachlor, and diazinon using common emergent aquatic vegetation

By the year 2050, the population of the United States is expected to reach over 418 million,while the global population will reach 9.6 billion. To provide safe food and fiber, agriculture must balance pesticide usage against impacts on natural resources. Challenges arise when storms cause runoff to be transported to aquatic receiving systems. Vegetated systems such as drainage ditches and constructed wetlands have been proposed as management practices to alleviate pesticide runoff. Twelve experimental mesocosms(1.3 × 0.71 × 0.61 m) were filled with sediment and planted with a monoculture of one of three wetland plant species(Typha latifolia, Leersia oryzoides, and Sparganium americanum).Three mesocosms remained unvegetated to serve as controls. All mesocosms were amended with 9.2 ± 0.8 μg/L, 12 ± 0.4 μg/L, and 3.1 ± 0.2 μg/L of atrazine, metolachlor, and diazinon, respectively, over a 4 hr hydraulic retention time to simulate storm runoff.Following the 4 hr amendment, non-amended water was flushed through mesocosms for an additional 4 hr. Outflow water samples were taken hourly from pre-amendment through8 hr, and again at 12, 24, 48, 72, and 168 hr post-amendment. L. oryzoides and T. latifolia had mean atrazine, metolachlor, and diazinon retentions from 51%–55% for the first 4 hr of the experiment. Aside from S. americanum and atrazine(25% retention), unvegetated controls had the lowest pesticide retention(17%–28%) of all compared mesocosms. While native aquatic vegetation shows promise for mitigation of pesticide runoff, further studies increasing the hydraulic retention time for improved efficiency should be examined.     

A conceptual model of the social–ecological system of nature-based solutions in urban environments

This article provides a perspective on nature-based solutions. First, the argument is developed that nature-based solutions integrate social and ecological systems. Then, theoretical considerations relating to relational values, multifunctionality, transdisciplinarity, and polycentric governance are briefly outlined. Finally, a conceptual model of the social–ecological system of nature-based solutions is synthesised and presented. This conceptual model comprehensively defines the social and ecological external and internal systems that make up nature-based solutions, and identifies theoretical considerations that need to be addressed at different stages of their planning and implementation The model bridges the normative gaps of existing nature-based solution frameworks and could be used for consistent, comprehensive, and transferable comparisons internationally. The theoretical considerations addressed in this article inform practitioners, policymakers, and researchers about the essential components of nature-based solutions. The conceptual model can facilitate the identification of social and ecological interconnections within nature-based solutions and the range of stakeholders and disciplines involved.     

A global ecological signal of extinction risk in terrestrial vertebrates

To determine the distribution and causes of extinction threat across functional groups of terrestrial vertebrates, we assembled an ecological trait data set for 18,016 species of terrestrial vertebrates and utilized phylogenetic comparative methods to test which categories of habitat association, mode of locomotion, and feeding mode best predicted extinction risk. We also examined the individual categories of the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List extinction drivers (e.g., agriculture and logging) threatening each species and determined the greatest threats for each of the four terrestrial vertebrate groups. We then quantified the sum of extinction drivers threatening each species to provide a multistressor perspective on threat. Cave dwelling amphibians (p < 0.01), arboreal quadrupedal mammals (all of which are primates) (p < 0.01), aerial and scavenging birds (p < 0.01), and pedal (i.e., walking) squamates (p < 0.01) were all disproportionately threatened with extinction in comparison with the other assessed ecological traits. Across all threatened vertebrate species in the study, the most common risk factors were agriculture, threatening 4491 species, followed by logging, threatening 3187 species, and then invasive species and disease, threatening 2053 species. Species at higher risk of extinction were simultaneously at risk from a greater number of threat types. If left unabated, the disproportionate loss of species with certain functional traits and increasing anthropogenic pressures are likely to disrupt ecosystem functions globally. A shift in focus from species- to trait-centric conservation practices will allow for protection of at-risk functional diversity from regional to global scales.     

A balancing act: Optimizing free chlorine contact time to minimize iodo-DBPs, NDMA, and regulated DBPs in chloraminated drinking water

Many drinking water treatment plants in the U.S. have switched from chlorination to chloramination to lower levels of regulated trihalomethane (THM) and haloacetic acid (HAA) disinfection byproducts (DBPs) in drinking water and meet the current regulations. However, chloramination can also produce other highly toxic/carcinogenic, unregulated DBPs: iodo-acids, iodo-THMs, and N-nitrosodimethylamine (NDMA). In practice, chloramines are generated by the addition of chlorine with ammonia, and plants use varying amounts of free chlorine contact time prior to ammonia addition to effectively kill pathogens and meet DBP regulations. However, iodo-DBPs and nitrosamines are generally not considered in this balancing of free chlorine contact time. The goal of our work was to determine whether an optimal free chlorine contact time could be established in which iodo-DBPs and NDMA could be minimized, while keeping regulated THMs and HAAs below their regulatory limits. The effect of free chlorine contact time was evaluated for the formation of six iodo-trihalomethanes (iodo-THMs), six iodo-acids, and NDMA during the chloramination of drinking water. Ten different free chlorine contact times were examined for two source waters with different dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and bromide/iodide. For the low DOC water at pH 7 and 8, an optimized free chlorine contact time of up to 1 h could control regulated THMs and HAAs, as well as iodo-DBPs and NDMA. For the high DOC water, a free chlorine contact time of 5 min could control iodo-DBPs and NDMA at both pHs, but the regulated DBPs could exceed the regulations at pH 7.