应用IVE模型计算上海市机动车污染物排放

为了解上海市机动车污染现状,建立上海市机动车源排放清单,分别选择上海市中心城区、商业区和收入相对较低区域中的主干道、快速道和次干道3种共9条典型道路,开展机动车技术水平参数、比功率(VSP)分布状况、启动状况等测试,并在此基础上将International Vehicle E-mission(IVE)模型本地化.调查结果表明,上海市区实际道路上轻型客车、出租车、公交巴士、卡车和摩托车(包含助动车)分别占道路总车流量的41.0%、30.8%、15.6%、6.9%和5.7%;从技术组成看,约85%的轻型客车和97%的出租车均安装有三元催化装置,约30%的公交巴士和90%的卡车没有达到欧Ⅰ标准;机动车的VSP分布主要集中在-2.9～1.2 kw·t-1.模式计算结果表明,2004年上海市机动车CO、VOC、NOx和PM排放量分别为57.06×104t、7.75×104t、9.20×104t和0.26×104t;20%的高排放车对总排放量的贡献占到25%～45%;启动过程中排放的CO、VOC和PM占总排放量的15%～25%,NOx仅占总排放量的4.5%.     

Hydrocarbon emission fingerprints from contemporary vehicle/engine technologies with conventional and new fuels

The present paper presents results from the analysis of 29 individual C₂–C₉ hydrocarbons (HCs) specified in the European Commission Ozone Directive. The 29 HCs are measured in exhaust from common, contemporary vehicle/engine/fuel technologies for which very little or no data is available in the literature. The obtained HC emission fingerprints are compared with fingerprints deriving from technologies that are being phased out in Europe. Based on the total of 138 emission tests, thirteen type-specific fingerprints are extracted (Mean ± SD percentage contributions from individual HCs to the total mass of the 29 HCs), essential for receptor modelling source apportionment. The different types represent exhaust from Euro3 and Euro4 light-duty (LD) diesel and petrol-vehicles, Euro3 heavy-duty (HD) diesel exhaust, and exhaust from 2-stroke preEuro, Euro1 and Euro2 mopeds. The fuels comprise liquefied petroleum gas, petrol/ethanol blends (0–85% ethanol), and mineral diesel in various blends (0–100%) with fatty acid methyl esters, rapeseed methyl esters palm oil methyl esters, soybean oil methyl or sunflower oil methyl esters. Type-specific tracer compounds (markers) are identified for the various vehicle/engine/fuel technologies.An important finding is an insignificant effect on the HC fingerprints of varying the test driving cycle, indicating that combining HC fingerprints from different emission studies for receptor modelling purposes would be a robust approach.The obtained results are discussed in the context of atmospheric ozone formation and health implications from emissions (mg km^?1 for LD and mopeds and mg kW h^?1 for HD, all normalised to fuel consumption: mg dm^?3 fuel) of the harmful HCs, benzene and 1,3-butadiene.Another important finding is a strong linear correlation of the regulated “total” hydrocarbon emissions (tot-HC) with the ozone formation potential of the 29 HCs (ΣPO₃ = (1.66 ± 0.04) × tot-RH; r² = 0.93). Tot-HC is routinely monitored in emission control laboratories, whereas C₂–C₉ are not. The revealed strong correlations broadens the usability of data from vehicle emission control laboratories and facilitates the comparison of the ozone formation potential of HCs in exhaust from of old and new vehicle/engine/fuel technologies.     

Rapidly assessing cobenefits to advance threat-management alliances

Conservation strategies aimed at reducing threats to biodiversity can have significant implications for multiple sectors in a socioeconomic system, but these cobenefits are often poorly understood. For example, many of the threats to native species also impede agricultural production, yet agriculture is typically perceived as in competition with conservation objectives. Although a comprehensive, multiobjective decision analysis is usually beyond the scope and capacity of conservation decision makers, failing to incorporate key socioeconomic costs and benefits into conservation decision-making processes can result in missed opportunities for diversifying outcomes and creating cost-sharing multisectoral partnerships. We devised a straightforward and readily interpretable approach to incorporate cobenefits into a threat-management prioritization approach. We used it to analyze the agricultural cobenefits of implementing 9 invasive animal management strategies designed to ensure the persistence of 148 threatened species across Australia's Lake Eyre Basin over 50 years. A structured elicitation process with 24 participants (scientists, land managers, agriculturalists, and other stakeholders) was used to collect information on each strategy, including costs, technical and social feasibility, benefits to native threatened species, and cobenefits to agricultural production systems. The costs of targeted invasive animal management to save threatened species across the basin (AU$33 million/year) outweighed the overall benefits to the agricultural industry (estimated AU$226 million/year). The return on investment for these management strategies varied substantially when agricultural cobenefits were considered alongside threatened species benefits and showed synergies and challenges. Our approach demonstrates the value of incorporating cobenefits of conservation actions into cost-effectiveness analyses to guide potential investment and partnerships and to diversify implementation pathways.     

Spatio-temporal patterns of juvenile marine turtle occurrence in waters of the European continental shelf

We present data spanning approximately 100 years regarding the spatial and temporal occurrence of marine turtle sightings and strandings in the northeast Atlantic from two public recording schemes and demonstrate potential signals of changing population status. Records of loggerhead (n = 317) and Kemp’s ridley (n = 44) turtles occurring on the European continental shelf were most prevalent during the autumn and winter, when waters were coolest. In contrast, endothermic leatherback turtles (n = 1,668) were most common during the summer. Analysis of the spatial distribution of hard-shell marine turtle sightings and strandings highlights a pattern of decreasing records with increasing latitude. The spatial distribution of sighting and stranding records indicates that arrival in waters of the European continental shelf is most likely driven by North Atlantic current systems. Future patterns of spatial-temporal distribution, gathered from the periphery of juvenile marine turtles habitat range, may allow for a broader assessment of the future impacts of global climate change on species range and population size.     

The prognostic factors in the prenatal diagnosis of the echogenic fetal lung

The prenatal diagnosis of an echogenic fetal lung (EFL) is now often made in the early second trimester using high-resolution ultrasound. This ultrasound appearance is usually caused by a congenital cystic adenomatoid lung malformation (CCAM), an intrapulmonary lung sequestration or obstruction of a major airway. In order to provide prognostic guidelines to parents who may be considering termination of a fetus with these findings, we have analysed a series of 11 cases diagnosed in our centre over the past 2 years in conjunction with 60 cases from major published series. The data suggest that in the absence of non-immune hydrops fetalis (NIHF) or other anomalies, the outcome for the fetuses is excellent, with over 90 per cent survival. Neither early diagnosis (24 weeks) nor the presence of mediastinal shift is a poor prognostic indicator. In addition, it appears that if NIHF is absent at diagnosis, the chance that it will develop as the pregnancy continues is small (6 per cent). Furthermore, there is a significant (up to 30 per cent) chance that this ultrasound finding will resolve in utero. The development of in utero fetal surgical techniques may be the only hope for those hydropic fetuses who appear to have a dismal prognosis.     

How effective are broad-scale nutrient mass balances for determining the sustainability of lot-feed manure application?

Nutrient mass balances have been used to assess a variety of land resource scenarios, at various scales. They are widely used as a simple basis for policy, planning, and regulatory decisions but it is not clear how accurately they reflect reality. This study provides a critique of broad-scale nutrient mass balances, with particular application to the fertiliser use of beef lot-feeding manure in Queensland.Mass balances completed at the district and farm scale were found to misrepresent actual manure management behaviour and potentially the risk of nutrient contamination of water resources. The difficulties of handling stockpile manure and concerns about soil compaction mean that manure is spread thickly over a few paddocks at a time and not evenly across a whole farm. Consequently, higher nutrient loads were applied to a single paddock less frequently than annually. This resulted in years with excess nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium remaining in the soil profile. This conclusion was supported by evidence of significant nutrient movement in several of the soil profiles studied.Spreading manure is profitable, but maximum returns can be associated with increased risk of nutrient leaching relative to conventional inorganic fertiliser practices. Bio-economic simulations found this increased risk where manure was applied to supply crop nitrogen requirements (the practice of the case study farms, 200–5000 head lot-feeders).Thus, the use of broad-scale mass balances can be misleading because paddock management is spatially heterogeneous and this leads to increased local potential for nutrient loss. In response to the effect of spatial heterogeneity policy makers who intend to use mass balance techniques to estimate potential for nutrient contamination should apply these techniques conservatively.     

Optimizing carbon sequestration in commercial forests by integrating carbon management objectives in wood supply modeling

This paper provides a methodology for generating forest management plans, which explicitly maximize carbon (C) sequestration at the forest-landscape level. This paper takes advantage of concepts first presented in a paper by Meng et al. (2003; Mitigation Adaptation Strategies Global Change 8:371–403) by integrating C-sequestration objective functions in existing wood supply models. Carbon-stock calculations performed in Woodstock^TM (RemSoft Inc.) are based on C yields generated from volume table data obtained from local Forest Development Survey plots and a series of wood volume-to-C content conversion factors specified in von Mirbach (2000). The approach is used to investigate the impact of three demonstration forest-management scenarios on the C budget in a 110,000 ha forest in south-central New Brunswick, Canada. Explicit demonstration scenarios addressed include (1) maximizing timber extraction either by clearcut or selection harvesting for greatest revenue generation, (2) maximizing total C storage in the forest landscape and in wood products generated from harvesting, and (3) maximizing C storage together with revenue generation. The level of clearcut harvesting was greatest for scenario 1 (≥15 × 10⁴ m³ of wood and ≥943 ha of land per harvesting period), and least for scenario 2 (=0 m³ per harvesting period) where selection harvesting dominated. Because softwood saw logs were worth more than pulpwood ($60 m⁻³ vs. $40 m⁻³) and were strategic to the long-term storage of C, the production of softwood saw logs exceeded the production of pulpwood in all scenarios. Selection harvesting was generally the preferred harvesting method across scenarios. Only in scenario 1 did levels of clearcut harvesting occasionally exceed those of selection harvesting, mainly in the removal of old, dilapidated stands early in the simulation (i.e., during periods 1 through 3). Scenario 2 provided the greatest total C-storage increase over 80 years (i.e., 14 × 10⁶ Mg C, or roughly 264 Mg ha⁻¹) at a cost of $111 per Mg C due to lost revenues. Scenarios 3 and 1 produced reduced storage rates of roughly 9 × 10⁶ Mg C and 3 × 10⁶ Mg C, respectively; about 64% and 22% of the total, 80-year C storage calculated in scenario 2. The bulk of the C in scenario 2 was stored in the forest, amounting to about 76% of the total C sequestered.     

Heterogeneity shapes invasion: host size and environment influence susceptibility to a nonnative pathogen.

Theoretical study of invasion dynamics has suggested that spatial heterogeneity should strongly influence the rate and extent of spreading organisms. However, empirical support for this prediction is scant, and the importance of understanding heterogeneity for real-world systems has remained ambiguous. This study quantified the influence of host and environmental heterogeneity on the dynamics of a 19-year disease invasion by the exotic and fatal pathogen, Phytophthora lateralis, within a stream population of its host tree, Port Orford cedar (Chamaecyparis lawsoniana). Using dendrochronology, we reconstructed the invasion history along a 1350-m length of infected stream, which serves as the only route of pathogen dispersal. Contrary to theoretical predictions, the temporal progression of the disease invasion was not related to a host's downstream spatial position, but instead was determined by two sources of heterogeneity: host size and proximity to the stream channel. These sources of heterogeneity influenced both the epidemic and endemic dynamics of this pathogen invasion. This analysis provides empirical support for the influence of heterogeneity on the invasion dynamics of a commercially important forest pathogen and highlights the need to incorporate such natural variability into both invasion theory and methods aimed at controlling future spread.     

N fertilization effects on denitrification and N cycling in an aggrading forest.

We investigated N cycling and denitrification rates following five years of N and dolomite amendments to whole-tree harvested forest plots at the long-term soil productivity experiment in the Fernow Experimental Forest in West Virginia, USA. We hypothesized that changes in soil chemistry and nutrient cycling induced by N fertilization would increase denitrification rates and the N2O:N2 ratio. Soils from the fertilized plots had a lower pH (2.96) than control plots (3.22) and plots that received fertilizer and dolomite (3.41). There were no significant differences in soil %C or %N between treatments. Chloroform-labile microbial biomass carbon was lower in fertilized plots compared to control plots, though this trend was not significant. Extractable soil NO3- was elevated in fertilized plots on each sample date. Soil-extractable NH4+, NO3-, pH, microbial biomass carbon, and %C varied significantly by sample date suggesting important seasonal patterns in soil chemistry and N cycling. In particular, the steep decline in extractable NH4+ during the growing season is consistent with the high N demands of a regenerating forest. Net N mineralization and nitrification also varied by date but were not affected by the fertilization and dolomite treatments. In a laboratory experiment, denitrification was stimulated by NO3- additions in soils collected from all field plots, but this effect was stronger in soils from the unfertilized control plots, suggesting that chronic N fertilization has partially alleviated a NO3- limitation on denitrification rates. Dextrose stimulated denitrification only in the whole-tree-harvest soils. Denitrification enzyme activity varied by sample date and was elevated in fertilized plots for soil collected in July 2000 and June 2001. There were no detectable treatment effects on N2O or N2 flux from soils under anaerobic conditions, though there was strong temporal variation. These results suggest that whole-tree harvesting has altered the N status of these soils so they are less prone to N saturation than more mature forests. It is likely that N losses associated with the initial harvest and high N demand by aggrading vegetation is minimizing, at least temporarily, the amount of inorganic N available for nitrification and denitrification, even in the fertilized plots in this experiment.