Effects of human footprint and biophysical factors on the body-size structure of fished marine species

Marine fisheries in coastal ecosystems in many areas of the world have historically removed large-bodied individuals, potentially impairing ecosystem functioning and the long-term sustainability of fish populations. Reporting on size-based indicators that link to food-web structure can contribute to ecosystem-based management, but the application of these indicators over large (cross-ecosystem) geographical scales has been limited to either fisheries-dependent catch data or diver-based methods restricted to shallow waters (<20 m) that can misrepresent the abundance of large-bodied fished species. We obtained data on the body-size structure of 82 recreationally or commercially targeted marine demersal teleosts from 2904 deployments of baited remote underwater stereo-video (stereo-BRUV). Sampling was at up to 50 m depth and covered approximately 10,000 km of the continental shelf of Australia. Seascape relief, water depth, and human gravity (i.e., a proxy of human impacts) were the strongest predictors of the probability of occurrence of large fishes and the abundance of fishes above the minimum legal size of capture. No-take marine reserves had a positive effect on the abundance of fishes above legal size, although the effect varied across species groups. In contrast, sublegal fishes were best predicted by gradients in sea surface temperature (mean and variance). In areas of low human impact, large fishes were about three times more likely to be encountered and fishes of legal size were approximately five times more abundant. For conspicuous species groups with contrasting habitat, environmental, and biogeographic affinities, abundance of legal-size fishes typically declined as human impact increased. Our large-scale quantitative analyses highlight the combined importance of seascape complexity, regions with low human footprint, and no-take marine reserves in protecting large-bodied fishes across a broad range of species and ecosystem configurations.     

Statistical Evaluation of Variables Affecting Occurrence of Hydrocarbons in Aquifers Used for Public Supply,California

The variables affecting the occurrence of hydrocarbons in aquifers used for public supply in California were assessed based on statistical evaluation of three large statewide datasets; gasoline oxygenates also were analyzed for comparison with hydrocarbons. Benzene is the most frequently detected (1.7%) compound among 17 hydrocarbons analyzed at generally low concentrations (median detected concentration 0.024 μg/l) in groundwater used for public supply in California; methyl tert‐butyl ether (MTBE) is the most frequently detected (5.8%) compound among seven oxygenates analyzed (median detected concentration 0.1 μg/l). At aquifer depths used for public supply, hydrocarbons and MTBE rarely co‐occur and are generally related to different variables; in shallower groundwater, co‐occurrence is more frequent and there are similar relations to the density or proximity of potential sources. Benzene concentrations are most strongly correlated with reducing conditions, regardless of groundwater age and depth. Multiple lines of evidence indicate that benzene and other hydrocarbons detected in old, deep, and/or brackish groundwater result from geogenic sources of oil and gas. However, in recently recharged (since ~1950), generally shallower groundwater, higher concentrations and detection frequencies of benzene and hydrocarbons were associated with a greater proportion of commercial land use surrounding the well, likely reflecting effects of anthropogenic sources, particularly in combination with reducing conditions.     

Conjunctive Water Use in Confined Basalt Aquifers: An Evaluation Using Geochemistry,a Numerical Model,and Historical Water Level

As withdrawals from deep compartmentalized aquifers increasingly exceed recharge throughout the western United States, conjunctive water use management alternatives have become an applied research priority. This study highlights both details and limitations of the role of irrigation canal seepage as groundwater recharge, revealing the regional limitations of canal seepage as a dependable source of recharge in overdrawn aquifers. A suite of geochemical indicators were used together with a numerical model to evaluate current and future management scenarios focused on recharge derived from seepage from a region‐wide irrigation canal system. Twenty‐five years of static groundwater level data were used to relate spatial trends determined using geochemistry and groundwater modeling with “on‐the‐ground” management practices, which vary based on acreage, crop, and irrigation scheduling. Increasing groundwater age determined using isotope analysis, and declines in potentiometric heads, each correlate with increasing distance from the canal reaches. Predictive modeling indicates that if pumping is gradually reduced, as has been suggested by management agencies, that recharge from canal seepage will be negligible by 2035 due to regional groundwater through‐flow and the pattern of potentiometric head recovery. Unfortunately, historic hydrographs suggest that under current groundwater development conditions most wells are not sustainable, irrespective of proximity to the canal.     

Variation in vegetation cover and livestock mobility needs in Sahelian West Africa

A new approach was developed to evaluate the implications of the spatiotemporal variability of green vegetation for the dispersion of livestock that is required to access quality forage in semi-arid Africa. Maximum NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) at 1 km² resolution was determined for concentric rings (0–31 km radii) around 227 individual sample locations within the study area for 14 dates (between 1 April to 1 November) annually over the 2000–2010 period. A sigmoidal curve was fitted to points within the maximum NDVI × distance radii space to determine the asymptote distance (AD) – the radius at which further dispersion from the sample location does not lead to significant gains in access to green forage. AD was found to: increase with latitude (or increasing aridity); decline as the rainy season proceeds; and show no trend over the 2000–2010 period. These results introduce much-needed empirical data to current debates surrounding the scales of governance to support livestock mobility.     

Seasonal variation in the effects of food availability on gametogenesis in the purple urchin (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Strongylocentrotus purpuratus</Emphasis>)

The amount of food and when it is available affect both the timing of reproduction and the number of gametes produced by purple sea urchins, Strongylocentrotus purpuratus. To investigate this further, the effects of food availability on feeding rates, gonad growth, and gamete development were examined in S. purpuratus collected from the Point Loma kelp forest near San Diego, California, USA (32.69° N, 117.26° W) in September (Fall) 2007, and February (Spring) and July (Summer) 2008, using laboratory mesocosms. Each seasonal laboratory feeding experiment lasted 3 months, and different levels of food availability were established with different feeding frequencies (from 1 to 7 days week⁻¹). Gonad tissues of male and female urchins were staged at the end of each experiment using histological analyses. Reduced food availability resulted in increased daily consumption rates, especially in the Fall when gamete development began. Food limitation at this time resulted in failure to produce viable gametes, suggesting there is a critical period early in gonad development when food limitation affects reproductive competency. Food limitation later in gonad development did not stop viable gamete production, although it did reduce gamete output.     

Long-term population dynamics of seeded plants in invaded grasslands

In recent decades, dozens of studies have involved attempts to introduce native and desirable nonnative plant species into grasslands dominated by invasive weeds. The newly introduced plants have proved capable of establishing, but because they are rarely monitored for more than four years, it is unknown if they have a high likelihood of persisting and suppressing invaders for the long-term. Beyond invaded grasslands, this lack of long-term monitoring is a general problem plaguing efforts to reintroduce a range of taxa into a range of ecosystems. We introduced species from seed and then periodically measured plant abundances for nine years at one site and 15 years at a second site. To our knowledge, our 15-year data are the longest to date from a seeding experiment in invaded, never-cultivated grassland. At one site, three seeded grasses maintained high densities for three or more years, but then all or nearly all individuals died. At the second site, one grass performed similarly, but two other grasses proliferated and at least one greatly suppressed the dominant invader (Centaurea maculosa). In one study, our point estimate suggests that the seeded grass Thinopyrum intermedium reduced C. maculosa biomass by 93% 15 years after seeding. In some cases, data from three and fewer years after seeding falsely suggested that seeded species were capable of persisting within the invaded grassland. In other cases, data from as late as nine years after seeding falsely suggested seeded populations would not become large enough to suppress the invader. These results show that seeded species sometimes persist and suppress invaders for long periods, but short-term data cannot predict if, when, or where this will occur. Because short-term data are not predictive of long-term seeded species performances, additional long-term data are needed to identify effective practices, traits, and species for revegetating invaded grasslands.     

Forest conservation delivers highly variable coral reef conservation outcomes

Coral reefs are threatened by human activities on both the land (e.g., deforestation) and the sea (e.g., overfishing). Most conservation planning for coral reefs focuses on removing threats in the sea, neglecting management actions on the land. A more integrated approach to coral reef conservation, inclusive of land-sea connections, requires an understanding of how and where terrestrial conservation actions influence reefs. We address this by developing a land-sea planning approach to inform fine-scale spatial management decisions and test it in Fiji. Our aim is to determine where the protection of forest can deliver the greatest return on investment for coral reef ecosystems. To assess the benefits of conservation to coral reefs, we estimate their relative condition as influenced by watershed-based pollution and fishing. We calculate the cost-effectiveness of protecting forest and find that investments deliver rapidly diminishing returns for improvements to relative reef condition. For example, protecting 2% of forest in one area is almost 500 times more beneficial than protecting 2% in another area, making prioritization essential. For the scenarios evaluated, relative coral reef condition could be improved by 8-58% if all remnant forest in Fiji were protected rather than deforested. Finally, we determine the priority of each coral reef for implementing a marine protected area when all remnant forest is protected for conservation. The general results will support decisions made by the Fiji Protected Area Committee as they establish a national protected area network that aims to protect 20% of the land and 30% of the inshore waters by 2020. Although challenges remain, we can inform conservation decisions around the globe by tackling the complex issues relevant to integrated land-sea planning.     

Modeling range dynamics in heterogeneous landscapes: invasion of the hemlock woolly adelgid in eastern North America

Range expansion by native and exotic species will continue to be a major component of global change. Anticipating the potential effects of changes in species distributions requires models capable of forecasting population spread across realistic, heterogeneous landscapes and subject to spatiotemporal variability in habitat suitability. Several decades of theory and model development, as well as increased computing power and availability of fine-resolution GIS data, now make such models possible. Still unanswered, however, is the question of how well this new generation of dynamic models will anticipate range expansion. Here we develop a spatially explicit stochastic model that combines dynamic dispersal and population processes with fine-resolution maps characterizing spatiotemporal heterogeneity in climate and habitat to model range expansion of the hemlock woolly adelgid (HWA; Adelges tsugae). We parameterize this model using multiyear data sets describing population and dispersal dynamics of HWA and apply it to eastern North America over a 57-year period (1951-2008). To evaluate the model, the observed pattern of spread of HWA during this same period was compared to model predictions. Our model predicts considerable heterogeneity in the risk of HWA invasion across space and through time, and it suggests that spatiotemporal variation in winter temperature, rather than hemlock abundance, exerts a primary control on the spread of HWA. Although the simulations generally matched the observed current extent of the invasion of HWA and patterns of anisotropic spread, it did not correctly predict when HWA was observed to arrive in different geographic regions. We attribute differences between the modeled and observed dynamics to an inability to capture the timing and direction of long-distance dispersal events that substantially affected the ensuing pattern of spread.     

Predicting national sustainability: The convergence of energetic,economic and environmental realities

The “constraint space” dictated by energetic, economic and environmental realities on scenarios for future organization of humanity and nature is explored from the perspective of the energy and resources driving economies. Net energy of energy sources is presented as an index (Emergy Yield Ratio; EYR) that must be evaluated for energy sources to better understand their potential contributions to society, but more important, as an indicator of the changes needed in the future if lower net yielding sources are to be relied upon. An aggregate EYR was calculated for the USA economy and shown to have decreased by 38% since 1950, from 11/1 to 6.8/1. Several measures of efficiency at the scale of national economies are explored and the data suggest that the most efficient economies are also the most energetically intense (as measured by empower intensity). An index of environmental loading is suggested as a measure to evaluate environmental efficacy. An obvious outcome is that the smallest most energetically intense countries have the highest environmental loads, and those with large land area and/or continental shelves have the lowest ratios. An Emergy Sustainability Index (EmSI) is defined, computed for countries, and proposed as a multi-dimensional measure of long-term sustainability. The most sustainable economies are those with the highest EYR and lowest environmental loads.