CLIMATIC CHANGE AND U.S. WATER RESOURCES: FROM MODELED WATERSHED IMPACTS TO NATIONAL ESTIMATES1

ABSTRACT: Water is potentially one of the most affected resources as climate changes. Though knowledge and understanding has steadily evolved about the nature and extent of many of the physical effects of possible climate change on water resources, much less is known about the economic responses and impacts that may emerge. Methods and results are presented that examine and quantify many of the important economic consequences of possible climate change on U.S. water resources. At the core of the assessment is the simulation of multiple climate change scenarios in economic models of four watersheds. These Water Allocation and Impact Models (Water‐AIM) simulate the effects of modeled runoff changes under various climate change scenarios on the spatial and temporal dimensions of water use, supply, and storage and on the magnitude and distribution of economic consequences. One of the key aspects and contributions of this approach is the capability of capturing economic response and adaptation behavior of water users to changes in water scarcity. By reflecting changes in the relative scarcity (and value) of water, users respond by changing their patterns of water use, intertemporal storage in reservoirs, and changes in the pricing of water. The estimates of economic welfare change that emerge from the Water‐AIM models are considered lower‐bound estimates owing to the conservative nature of the model formulation and key assumptions. The results from the Water‐AIM models form the basis for extrapolating impacts to the national level. Differences in the impacts across the regional models are carried through to the national assessment by matching the modeled basins with basins with similar geographical, climatic, and water use characteristics that have not been modeled and by using hydro‐logic data across all U.S. water resources regions. The results from the national analysis show that impacts are borne to a great extent by nonconsumptive users that depend on river flows, which rise and fall with precipitation, and by agricultural users, primarily in the western United States, that use a large share of available water in relatively low‐valued uses. Water used for municipal and industrial purposes is largely spared from reduced availability because of its relatively high marginal value. In some cases water quality concerns rise, and additional investments may be required to continue to meet established guidelines.     

A LOW COST DRIP IRRIGATION SYSTEM FOR SMALL FARMERS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES1

ABSTRACT: In areas where water is scarce, drip irrigation provides the most efficient way to conserve irrigation water, but its cost of £1000 an acre is prohibitive for most small farmers in developing countries. The cost was reduced by 90 percent by (1) making dripper lines moveable, so that each line reaches ten rows instead of one; (2) replacing 25-cent emitters with simple 0.70 mm holes punched by a heated needle; and (3) using £3.00 off-the-shelf 20 liter containers with cloth filters in place of expensive filter systems. This reduced the cost of a half-acre system to £50. The low cost system was field tested in the hill areas of Nepal, and in mulberry cultivation in Andhra Pradesh, India. Uniformity of flow from emitters was 73–84 percent. Small farmers reported that the low cost trickle irrigation system cut labor requirements in half, and doubled the area irrigated by the same amount of water. The low cost drip system is likely to be widely adopted by small farmers in semi-arid and hilly regions.     

Control of Fly Ash from Conventional Coal-Fired Utility Boilers

This paper presents a detailed review and critical evaluation of current technologies as applied to fine particulate emissions from coal-fired utility boilers. Quantitative assessments of the capabilities of both conventional and novel air pollution control devices to meet three different performance standards—the present New Source Performance Standard (NSPS) of 0.03 Ib particulate/MBtu heat input, and standards of 0.05 and 0.1 Ib particulate/MBtu are included. Each of the three conventional devices (electrostatic precipitator, fabric filter baghouse, and wet scrubber) is compared and rated with respect to eight different performance categories. This information can be used to determine the relative effectiveness and attractiveness of these three control devices. Novel devices are compared and rated in the same manner, the conclusions from which may provide the research administrator with a guide for the selection of those novel devices which offer the best potential for commercialization.

The major conclusions of the investigation are: (1) The use of conventional scrubbers for fine particulate control on coal-fired utility boilers may no longer be feasible at the new NSPS of 0.03 Ib/MBtu. (2) At the old NSPS (0.1 Ib/MBtu) conventional electrostatic precipitators and baghouses were often competitive. For the new stricter standard, however, the baghouse generally is the more attractive alternative. (3) Novel devices appear to offer almost no hope for this particular application (at a commercial level) between now and 1985 and only little hope before 1990.     

Past reproductive success affects future habitat selection

Correlational studies have shown that an individual's past reproductive success often increases its breeding site fidelity (i.e., the tendency to return to a previously occupied location), suggesting that individuals use their reproductive experience to assess habitat quality. However, the causality of the relationship between reproductive success and site fidelity is still uncertain. In a field experiment, the effect of mating success on site fidelity was isolated from potential confounding variables in a territorial dragonfly, the eastern amberwing (Perithemis tenera). The experiment controlled for site quality, intrinsic characteristics of males, previous territorial experience at the site, arrival order, and territorial evictions. Males that were prevented from mating were much more likely to change sites the following day than control males that were allowed to mate. This result was not affected by age, the amount of time a male spent on the site, or mortality. These results imply that individuals use their own reproductive success to assess the quality of the habitat. The benefit to an individual of using its reproductive success to determine habitat quality is discussed relative to other sources of information. Received: 31 May 1996 / Accepted: 31 January 1997     

Documenting lemming population change in the Arctic: Can we detect trends?

Lemmings are a key component of tundra food webs and changes in their dynamics can affect the whole ecosystem. We present a comprehensive overview of lemming monitoring and research activities, and assess recent trends in lemming abundance across the circumpolar Arctic. Since 2000, lemmings have been monitored at 49 sites of which 38 are still active. The sites were not evenly distributed with notably Russia and high Arctic Canada underrepresented. Abundance was monitored at all sites, but methods and levels of precision varied greatly. Other important attributes such as health, genetic diversity and potential drivers of population change, were often not monitored. There was no evidence that lemming populations were decreasing in general, although a negative trend was detected for low arctic populations sympatric with voles. To keep the pace of arctic change, we recommend maintaining long-term programmes while harmonizing methods, improving spatial coverage and integrating an ecosystem perspective.     

Effects of Residential Development on Forest-Dwelling Neotropical Migrant Songbirds

Many bird species are in local or regional decline because of habitat loss or degradation. We attempted to disentangle the effects of residential development from the effects of forest size on forest-bird communities, with particular emphasis on Neotropical migrant species. Two variables were examined for their influence on avian diversity and abundance: forest size and the number of houses outside a forest within 100 m of the edge. We found that Neotropical migrants consistently increased in number and abundance as forest size increased. Of greater interest, we found that the number of houses surrounding a forest severely undermined its suitability for Neotropical migrants. Neotropical migrants consistently decreased in diversity and abundance as the level of adjacent development increased, regardless of forest size. The effects of development were striking: 4-ha woodlots without any nearby houses had on average a richer, more abundant Neotropical community than did 25-ha urban woodlots. No predictable pattern of change concerning development or forest size was observed for short-distance migrants or permanent residents. Current planning regulations generally permit housing right up to forest edges. This practice may prevent protection of ecological features within the forest. Threshold distances for housing developments around forests need to be determined to prevent or minimize adverse effects on features and functions within the forests.     

Ashes from fluidized bed combustion of residual forest biomass: recycling to soil as a viable management option

Although bottom ash (BA) [or mixtures of bottom and fly ash (FA)] from clean biomass fuels is currently used as liming agent, additive for compost, and fertilizer on agricultural and forest soils in certain European countries, in several other countries most of the ashes are currently disposed in landfills. This is due to both a lack of a proper classification of the materials and of regulatory barriers.Chemical characterization including analysis of an array of potentially toxic elements (PTEs) proved that over 100,000 tons of BA currently landfilled every year in Portugal actually complied with legal limits for PTEs for soil fertilizers applied in other countries. Pot experiments were conducted, testing three dosages of BA and FA (1, 2.5, and 5%, in weight) in three mining soils with different properties. Additions of ash materials to soils led to an increase in the pore water pH relative to control pots (0% of ash added) and had a clear impact on DOC and on the solubilization of both macro- and micronutrients (notably Cu).The results from the case study using BA and FA from a Portuguese biomass thermal power plant demonstrate that it is imperative to further develop a regulatory framework to alleviate technological and environmental barriers for biomass ash utilization as raw material for fertilizers and/or soil liming agent, in accordance with the goals of the circular economy. A more harmonized view on how to assess the merits and risks of the re-use of these materials is also needed.     

The alcohol interlock: an underutilized resource for predicting and controlling drunk drivers

This report summarizes evidence presented during the Third Annual Ignition Interlock Symposium at Vero Beach, Florida, 29 October 2002. The ignition interlock prevents a car from starting when blood alcohol concentration (BAC) is elevated. We review some of our prior work as well as introduce previously unpublished results to demonstrate the manner in which the data recorded by the alcohol ignition interlock device can serve as an advance predictor of future driving under the influence (DUI) of alcohol risks. Data used in this current report represent approximately 2,200 ignition interlock users from Alberta, Canada, and about 8,000 interlock users from Quebec, Canada; the Alberta data set contained 5.5 million breath tests and the Quebec data 18.8 million breath tests. All tests are time and date stamped and this information was used to characterize patterns of BAC and vehicle use, and the relationship between BAC elevations and DUI offenses that accumulated after the interlock was removed from the vehicles. Findings from Cox regression show that BAC elevations >.02-.04% are more potent predictors of repeat DUI (p<.0001) than even prior DUI (p<.006), usually found to be the strongest indicator of driver risk. Prior DUI obviously has no use for scaling the risk of first-time offenders. Drivers who are both multiple offenders and who have more than a few elevated interlock BAC tests are much more likely to repeat DUI. The timing and pattern of elevated BAC tests provided during the time drivers were required to use an alcohol ignition interlock device are remarkably similar on both a daily basis and an hourly basis when the interlock programs from the two provinces are compared directly. Both provinces had higher rates of elevated tests on Saturday and Sunday, and the fewest elevated tests on Tuesdays. The absolute rate of elevated tests is similar despite the two provinces adhering to different interlock lockout points (.02% Quebec;.04% Alberta). Charts tracking the Monday-Friday timing of elevated BAC tests by hour are nearly identical for both provinces. The most elevated BAC tests occurred between 7 and 9 A.M. Monday to Friday, even though most vehicle start attempts occurred much later in the day. This higher rate of elevated morning BAC likely represents drinking from the prior evening with alcohol not yet cleared from circulation; those with elevated BAC in the early morning were more likely to have a repeat offense even after accounting for prior DUI and the higher overall rate of elevated BAC tests. This is viewed as evidence of a drinking problem that will lead to impaired driving after the controlling function of the interlock is removed. Policy changes are discussed that might take better advantage of interlock information to improve the public response to drunk driving.     

Isomeric analysis of PCDD/PCDF in waste incinerator fly ash by GC-MS/MS

The development of an analytical method for the analysis of PCDD/PCDF in flyash using a bench analytical system comprising of a gas chromatograph fitted with an ion trap detector operated in the tandem MS mode is described. The optimum settings for the most important MS/MS parameters are given, including those for the less reported mono- to tri-chlorinated dioxin and furan congener groups. Flyash samples from three waste incineration plants representing a decommissioned 1970s plant design, an upgraded and still operating plant originally designed in the 1970s, and a modern 1990s design operating plant have been analysed for PCDD/PCDF. The flyash samples were analysed for PCDD/PCDF using the methods developed and the total PCDD/PCDF, I-TEQ values and isomeric profiles are reported. The flyash from the older decommissioned incinerator had very significantly higher concentrations of PCDD/PCDF compared to the modern incinerator flyash.