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671.
Our objectives are to evaluate inter-continental source-receptor relationships for fine aerosols and to identify the regions whose emissions have dominant influence on receptor continents. We simulate sulfate, black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), and mineral dust aerosols using a global coupled chemistry-aerosol model (MOZART-2) driven with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis meteorology for 1997–2003 and emissions approximately representing year 2000. The concentrations of simulated aerosol species in general agree within a factor of 2 with observations, except that the model tends to overestimate sulfate over Europe in summer, underestimate BC and OC over the western and southeastern (SE) U.S. and Europe, and underestimate dust over the SE U.S. By tagging emissions from ten continental regions, we quantify the contribution of each region's emissions on surface aerosol concentrations (relevant for air quality) and aerosol optical depth (AOD, relevant for visibility and climate) globally. We find that domestic emissions contribute substantially to surface aerosol concentrations (57–95%) over all regions, but are responsible for a smaller fraction of AOD (26–76%). We define “background” aerosols as those aerosols over a region that result from inter-continental transport, DMS oxidation, and emissions from ships or volcanoes. Transport from other continental source regions accounts for a substantial portion of background aerosol concentrations: 36–97% for surface concentrations and 38–89% for AOD. We identify the Region of Primary Influence (RPI) as the source region with the largest contribution to the receptor's background aerosol concentrations (or AOD). We find that for dust Africa is the RPI for both aerosol concentrations and AOD over all other receptor regions. For non-dust aerosols (particularly for sulfate and BC), the RPIs for aerosol concentrations and AOD are identical for most receptor regions. These findings indicate that the reduction of the emission of non-dust aerosols and their precursors from an RPI will simultaneously improve both air quality and visibility over a receptor region.  相似文献   
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ABSTRACT

An apparent increasing trend in the summer concentrations of particulate sulfur at Shenandoah (for the time period 1982-1995) and at Great Smoky Mountains (for the time period 1984-1995) has been pointed out by some researchers. Others have suggested that these increasing trends may be an analytical artifact resulting from the switch from the Stacked Filter Units (SFU) measurement system to the IMPROVE (Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments) measurement system that occurred during the winter of 1987. To obtain a better understanding of the effect of the protocol change, we investigate the changes in the seasonal averages of sulfur concentrations for successive pairs of years for the period 1980-1996 for about 20 national park sites in the United States. For the period 1980-1987, we use sulfur data from the old (SFU) database and for the period 1988-1996, we use the IMPROVE database. Changes from one year to the next similar to that between 1987 and 1988 occurred during other years and seasons suggesting that chance causes alone could perhaps explain it, the degree to which chance could have caused the changes was measured using the permutation test for matched. At the very least, additional information such as side by side readings using SFU and IMPROVE measurement methods, may be needed to better understand any systematic effect in the sulfur measurements that may be ascribable to the protocol change.  相似文献   
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Water and sustainability   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
This inquiry summarizes global water resources and patterns of use, applies indicators of water sustainability in order to identify areas of water stress, and examines prospects for water sustainability in the list century. A long-range conventional development scenario is introduced based on a vision of the future in which the values, consumption patterns and dynamics of the Western industrial society will be progressively played out on a global scale. The scenario is driven by commonly cited projections of population and economic growth, assumes no major changes in water policy and, following historic trends, incorporates progressive improvements in the efficiency of water use. The scenario helps clarify the constraints of a conventional picture of water development, and provides a useful point of departure for examining alternative long-range scenarios and their implications for water and development policy. In the conventional development scenario, there is growing pressure on water resources, particularly in developing regions. Strategies for beginning a transition to a sustainable water development path are summarized .  相似文献   
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