EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT OF POPULATIONS USING ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING,DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS,AND GIS1

ABSTRACT: Simulation of ground-water flow and fate of contaminants in the subsurface environment constitutes a major phase of most environmental assessment and site remediation studies. These simulation studies yield information on spatial and temporal distributions of contaminants in the subsurface media. An important use of this information is to conduct exposure assessment studies. Spatial and temporal distributions of both chemical concentrations and exposed populations render this integrated exposure analysis task rather difficult. Geographic Information Systems (GIS), on the other hand, provide a platform in which layered, spatially distributed databases can be manipulated with ease, thereby simplifying exposure analysis tasks significantly. In this paper, we describe procedures that combine the simulation models and demographic databases under a GIS platform to automate the exposure assessment phase of a typical health assessment study. Procedures developed herein significantly simplify the post-processing phase of the analysis, and render the overall task more ‘user friendly.’ A site-specific application is included as a demonstration of the proposed process.     

Screening method for locating groundwater monitoring wells

The traditional approach to characterizing the extent of groundwater contamination is often phased over a period of several years. A screening method has been developed that allows the investigation process to be reduced to a single phase. Existing data are used to develop a preliminary estimate of the extent of contamination, which is refined by the screening method using groundwater data collected and analyzed in the field. The screening method is applicable at sites with volatile organic compound contamination. Groundwater samples are collected using direct push or drill rig assisted methods, and the groundwater headspace gas is analyzed for the contaminant of interest. The refined estimate is used to locate all of the groundwater monitoring wells necessary to finalize the estimate of the extent of contamination. Therefore, only one investigation phase is required, and time and cost savings are realized with respect to the traditional multiphase approach. The screening method was successfully applied at a CERCLA site in Nebraska with two distinct plumes of TCE-contaminated groundwater. The Nebraska remedial investigation was completed approximately 18 months earlier than the estimated completion of a comparable phased investigation, with a corresponding cost reduction estimated at approximately 10 percent. If data from the screening method were used instead of data from monitoring wells, the estimated cost savings would be over 50 percent. Additional applications and evaluations may lead to industry and regulatory acceptance of the method as a primary characterization tool.     

Fog collection's role in water planning for developing countries

In certain locations, the combination of meteorological conditions and topography are such that persistent fogs cover coastal or interior mountains. The droplets from these fogs are collected by trees or other tall vegetation. They can also be collected by appropriately designed man-made collectors, to provide large volumes of water for domestic, agriculture or forestry uses. The largest project to date has provided, since March 1992, an average of 11 000 litres of water per day (*****l/d) to a village of 330 people in the arid coastal desert of northern Chile. This project and others are reviewed. The impact of the deforestation of high elevation areas, and the subsequent loss of fog water input in a watershed are discussed, as are guidelines for water planners.     

External threats to ecosystems of US national parks

Activities beyond national park boundaries are now the principal source of threats to park natural resource integrity. Assessing the full impact of major threats as air and water pollution requires a long-term ecosystem-level approach in research design and execution, and park management. Failure to take such an approach renders most existing park data bases useless in the documentation of external threats. While the concept of managing national parks as ecosystems is not new, Park Service research and its organization have not provided the information necessary for such a basis of management. Quantifying the impacts on park resources due to external hydrologic regulation and air pollution is a good example of the need to employ an ecosystem approach in research. However, implementing such a program will require a fundamental change in research administration, priority setting, and conceptual approach.The first four of the articles in this special section arise from an AAAS symposium onExternal Threats to Ecosystems of the National Parks in the USA, which was convened in 1982. The articles have been revised to reflect subsequent developments in this field. The first article, by Dr. Stottlemyer, the symposium organizer, serves as an introduction to the topic. The fifth article in this special section was submitted separately, but included because it also is related to this particular topic.     

Work role centrality of industrial workers as related to organizational conditions,task autonomy,managerial orientations and personal characteristics

The study shows that, for a sample of 818 industrial workers, work role centrality (WRC) is positively related to task autonomy and to organizational conditions of sector of ownership, unit-type of production system, and production stability; it is also weakly related to the orientations of production managers concerning the sharing of information, general supervision and granting autonomy. The task autonomy - work role centrality relationship is maintained beyond other organizational conditions, but the effects of managerial orientations are attenuated by task autonomy and by organizational conditions. Situational conditions such as production system and stability, managerial orientations and task autonomy add to the variance of WRC explained by personal attributes of gender, education and job training, and by the outcome of job satisfaction, and a combined model of both types of variables is the most efficient. Generally, work role centrality is found to be a fairly sensitive response to the work situation, but it is suggested that perceptual and attitudinal data be added to the explanatory model.     

A framework for understanding the consumptive orientation of recreational fishermen

Fishermen were aggregated into high-, mid-, and low-consumptive groups according to the importance they placed on catching fish. Analysis of variance indicated that each consumptive group was unique in the importance it placed on other fish-related variables. Low-consumptive fishermen rated most other aspects of the fishing experience, such as interacting with nature, relaxation, and escaping the daily routine, more important than did high-consumptive fishermen. Low-consumptive fishermen also fished more frequently and were generally more satisfied with their most recent fishing trip than were high-consumptive-oriented fishermen. The three groups can be viewed as different fishing constituencies. By understanding their characteristics, we can gain additional insights into the impacts of management decisions on recreational fishermen and their experiences.     

‘The good district’: Newbury as a seed‐bed for success

This study analyses the behaviour of high technology and new firms in the Newbury District of Berkshire in terms of employment, location, genealogy, and local economic impact. It finds that encouraged by good communications networks and a ‘resident electronics establishment’, the direct, as opposed to the indirect, employment consequences are generally encouraging, but not widely replicable. Moreover, the general picture of employment growth masks important differences in labour demand across occupations, particularly with respect to ‘traditional male’ skilled manual workers.     

Problems with using overlay mapping for planning and their implications for geographic information systems

As part of the planning process, maps of natural factors are often superimposed in order to identify areas which are suitable or unsuitable for a particular type of resource management. Overlay maps may also be used to identify analysis areas for predictive modeling of resource productivity and ecological response to management. Current interest in applying computer-assisted mapping technology to making overlay maps is drawing attention to geographic information systems for this purpose. The resultant maps, however, may be so inaccurate or unable to capture significant units of productivity and ecological response that they could lead to imperfect or false conclusions. Recommendations are made on how to proceed in light of these problems.     

INFLUENCE OF SMALL MAMMALS ON STORMFLOW RESPONSES OF PINE-COVERED CATCHMENTS1

ABSTRACT: The relative abundance of small mammals in five forest land cover types on the upper Coastal Plain of north Mississippi was determined. Burrowing mammals accounted for one-half of the total captures; one shrew species that accounted for over one-fourth of the total captures had a strong affinity for well-stocked pine plantations. The opportunity for detention and retention of rainfall was enhanced by burrowing activity. Reductions of stormflow volumes 12 to 15 years after replacing poor quality, upland hardwoods with loblolly pine were only partially explained by increased interception of rainfall; much of the residual reductions are postulated to be due to small mammal burrows. Small mammal activity deserves further study as an important aspect of forest land hydrology.     

STATISTICAL METHODS AND SAMPLING DESIGN FOR ESTIMATING STEP TRENDS IN SURFACE-WATER QUALITY1

ABSTRACT: This paper addresses two components of the problem of estimating the magnitude of step trends in surface water quality. The first is finding a robust estimator appropriate to the data characteristics expected in water-quality time series. The Hodges-Lehmann class of estimators is found to be robust in comparison to other nonparametric and moment-based estimators. A seasonal Hodges-Lehmann estimator is developed and shown to have desirable properties. Second, the effectiveness of various sampling strategies are examined using Monte Carlo simulation coupled with application of this estimator. The simulation is based on a large set of total phosphorus data from the Potomac River. To assure that the simulated records have realistic properties, the data are modeled in a multiplicative fashion incorporating flow, hysteresis, seasonal, and noise components. The results demonstrate the importance of balancing the length of the two sampling periods and balancing the number of data values between the two periods. The inefficiency of sampling at frequencies much in excess of 12 samples per year is demonstrated. Rotational sampling designs are discussed, and efficient designs, at least for this river and constituent, are shown to involve more than one year of active sampling at frequencies of about 12 per year.