Hydropower development in the lower Mekong basin: alternative approaches to deal with uncertainty

Governments in the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) face decisions that involve trade-offs between the economic benefits from hydropower generation and potentially irreversible negative impacts on the ecosystems that provide livelihoods and food security to the rural poor. As a means of comparing these trade-offs, a sensitivity analysis of the benefit-cost analysis of certain Basin Development Plan (BDP) scenarios was undertaken. By changing some key assumptions in the BDP about discount rates, the value of lost capture fisheries, future aquaculture production in the LMB, and the value of lost ecosystem services from wetlands to reflect the full range of uncertainty, at the extremes, there could be a reversal of the Net Present Value (NPV) estimates of the scenarios from a positive $33 billion to negative $274 billion. This report recommends when dealing with large-scale, complex projects: a more comprehensive, integrated human and natural systems framework and adaptive management approach to LMB planning and development that deals with the entire watershed; a more comprehensive analysis and treatment of risk and uncertainty; a more thorough assessment of the value of direct and indirect ecosystem services; a broader set of scenarios that embody alternative models of development, broader stakeholder participation; and better treatment of the effects of infrastructure construction on local cultures and the poor.     

Agroforestry buffers for nonpoint source pollution reductions from agricultural watersheds

Despite increased attention and demand for the adoption of agroforestry practices throughout the world, rigorous long-term scientific studies confirming environmental benefits from the use of agroforestry practices are limited. The objective was to examine nonpoint-source pollution (NPSP) reduction as influenced by agroforestry buffers in watersheds under grazing and row crop management. The grazing study consists of six watersheds in the Central Mississippi Valley wooded slopes and the row crop study site consists of three watersheds in a paired watershed design in Central Claypan areas. Runoff water samples were analyzed for sediment, total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorus (TP) for the 2004 to 2008 period. Results indicate that agroforestry and grass buffers on grazed and row crop management sites significantly reduce runoff, sediment, TN, and TP losses to streams. Buffers in association with grazing and row crop management reduced runoff by 49 and 19%, respectively, during the study period as compared with respective control treatments. Average sediment loss for grazing and row crop management systems was 13.8 and 17.9 kg ha yr, respectively. On average, grass and agroforestry buffers reduced sediment, TN, and TP losses by 32, 42, and 46% compared with the control treatments. Buffers were more effective in the grazing management practice than row crop management practice. These differences could in part be attributed to the differences in soils, management, and landscape features. Results from this study strongly indicate that agroforestry and grass buffers can be designed to improve water quality while minimizing the amount of land taken out of production.     

Salinity management using an anionic polymer in a pecan field with calcareous-sodic soil

Soil salinity and sodicity have long been recognized as the major concerns for irrigated agriculture in the Trans-Pecos Basin, where fields are being flood irrigated with Rio Grande River water that has elevated salinity. Reclamation of these salt-affected lands is difficult due to fine-texture, high shrink-swell soils with low permeability. Conventional practice of subsoiling to improve soil permeability is expensive and has had limited success on the irrigated soils that have appreciable amounts of readily weatherable Ca minerals. If these native Ca sources can be effectively used to counter sodicity, it can improve soil permeability and reduce amelioration costs. This study evaluated the effects of 3 yr of polyacrylamide (PAM) application at 10 mg L concentration during the first irrigation of the season to evaluate soil permeability, in situ Ca mineral dissolution, and leaching of salts from the effective root zone in a pecan field of El Paso County, TX. Results indicated that PAM application improved water movement throughout the effective root zone that resulted in Na leaching. Polymer application significantly decreased CaCO (estimated based on inorganic C analysis) concentrations in the top 45 cm compared with baseline levels, indicating solubilization and redistribution of calcite. The PAM application also reduced soil electrical conductivity (EC) in the top 60 cm (4.64-2.76 dS m) and sodium adsorption ratio (SAR) from 13.1 to 5.7 mmol L in the top 75-cm depths. As evidence of improved soil conditions, pecan nut yields increased by 34% in PAM-treated fields over the control. Results suggested that PAM application helped in effective use of native Ca sources present in soils of the study site and reduced Na by improving soil permeability.     

Leaf quality, predators, and stochastic processes in the assembly of a diverse herbivore community

Ecological communities are structured by both deterministic, niche-based processes and stochastic processes such as dispersal. A pressing issue in ecology is to determine when and for which organisms each of these types of processes is important in community assembly. The roles of deterministic and stochastic processes have been studied for a variety of communities, but very few researchers have addressed their contribution to insect herbivore community structure. Insect herbivore niches are often described as largely shaped by the antagonistic pressures of predation and host plant defenses. However host plants are frequently discrete patches of habitat, and their spatial arrangement can affect herbivore dispersal patterns. We studied the roles of predation, host plant quality, and host spatial proximity for the assembly of a diverse insect herbivore community on Quercus alba (white oak) across two growing seasons. We examined abundances of feeding guilds to determine if ecologically similar species responded similarly to variation in niches. Most guilds responded similarly to leaf quality, preferring high-nitrogen, low-tannin host plants, particularly late in the growing season, while bird predation had little impact on herbivore abundance. The communities on the high-quality plants tended to be larger and, in some cases, have greater species richness. We analyzed community composition by correlating indices of community similarity with predator presence, leaf quality similarity, and host plant proximity. Birds did not affect community composition. Community similarity was significantly associated with distance between host plants and uncorrelated with leaf quality similarity. Thus although leaf quality significantly affected the total abundance of herbivores on a host plant, in some cases leading to increased species richness, dispersal limitation may weaken this relationship. The species composition of these communities may be driven by stochastic processes rather than variation in host plant characteristics or differential predation by insectivorous birds.     

Ontic openness: An absolute necessity for all developmental processes

The physicist Walter M. Elsasser is mostly known for his work on the Earth's magnetism. Less attention has been paid to his efforts toward identifying what are the real differences between physical and biological systems. One essential distinction he recognized was that physical systems are largely homogenous while biological systems always revealed what he called ordered heterogeneity. Calculation of the possible configurations of such heterogeneous systems almost always leads to combinatorial explosions and to what Elsasser referred to as immense numbers. Such calculations have the consequence that any such systems are necessarily unique - mathematically speaking they represent one-sets.Another consequence is that immense numbers automatically introduce enormous uncertainty and indeterminacy into the system. Such systems are said to be ontically open. Applying this perspective to the genome and employing the notion of informational entropy reveals a common drive behind all development. This means that both conventional Darwinian evolution as well as the genomic mistakes that are believed to lie behind processes like aging and diseases can be interpreted against the background of one and the same process.At the same time the approach demonstrates how Darwinian evolution encompasses other notions such as Kauffman's “adjacent possible” ( [Kauffman, 1995] and [Kauffman, 2000]) and Eldrege's and Gould's “evolution via punctuated equilibria” (e.g., [Eldredge and Gould, 1972] and [Gould and Eldredge, 1977]).     

The effects of forest harvest intensity in combination with wind disturbance on carbon dynamics in Lake States Mesic Forests

Total forest carbon (C) storage is determined by succession, disturbances, climate, and the edaphic properties of a site or region. Forest harvesting substantially affects C dynamics; these effects may be amplified if forest harvesting is intensified to provide biofuel feedstock. We tested the effects of harvest intensity on landscape C using a simulation modeling approach that included C dynamics, multiple disturbances, and successional changes in composition. We developed a new extension for the LANDIS-II forest landscape disturbance and succession model that incorporates belowground soil C dynamics derived from the CENTURY soil model. The extension was parameterized and calibrated using data from an experimental forest in northeastern Wisconsin, USA. We simulated a 9800 ha forested landscape over 400 years with wind disturbance combined with no harvesting, harvesting with residual slash left on site (‘standard harvest’), and whole-tree harvesting. We also simulated landscapes without wind disturbance and without eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis) to examine the effects of detrital quantity and quality on C dynamics. We estimated changes in live C, detrital C, soil organic C, total C, and forest composition. Overall, the simulations without harvesting had substantially greater total C and continued to sequester C. Standard harvest simulations had more C than the whole tree harvest simulations. Under both harvest regimes, C accrual was not evident after 150 years. Without hemlock, SOC was reduced due to a decline in detritus and a shift in detrital chemistry. In conclusion, if the intensity of harvesting increases we can expect a corresponding reduction in potential C storage. Compositional changes due to historic circumstances (loss of hemlock) may also affect forest C although to a lesser degree than harvesting. The modeling approach presented enabled us to consider multiple, interacting drivers of landscape change and the subsequent changes in forest C.     

A Perspective on Nonstationarity and Water Management1

Hirsch, Robert M., 2011. A Perspective on Nonstationarity and Water Management. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(3):436‐446. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00539.x Abstract: This essay offers some perspectives on climate‐related nonstationarity and water resources. Hydrologists must not lose sight of the many sources of nonstationarity, recognizing that many of them may be of much greater magnitude than those that may arise from climate change. It is paradoxical that statistical and deterministic approaches give us better insights about changes in mean conditions than about the tails of probability distributions, and yet the tails are very important to water management. Another paradox is that it is difficult to distinguish between long‐term hydrologic persistence and trend. Using very long hydrologic records is helpful in mitigating this problem, but does not guarantee success. Empirical approaches, using long‐term hydrologic records, should be an important part of the portfolio of research being applied to understand the hydrologic response to climate change. An example presented here shows very mixed results for trends in the size of the annual floods, with some strong clusters of positive trends and a strong cluster of negative trends. The potential for nonstationarity highlights the importance of the continuity of hydrologic records, the need for repeated analysis of the data as the time series grow, and the need for a well‐trained cadre of scientists and engineers, ready to interpret the data and use those analyses to help adjust the management of our water resources.     

Carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus elemental stoichiometry in aquacultured and wild-caught fish and consequences for pelagic nutrient dynamics

The elemental carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) compositions of the whole-body and gut content of wild marine fish inhabiting the Bay of Biscay (Northeast Atlantic) were studied. Furthermore, the literature was examined for studies of aquacultured fish, reporting the elemental composition of the whole-body fish, that of their food, and nutrient assimilation and gross growth efficiencies (GGE). In both wild-caught and aquacultured fish, significant differences in C, N and P elemental composition were found between species, with P being the most variable component. Differences among species in terms of C, N and P content could be explained by varying proportions of storage compounds in whole-body fish, and varying degrees of ossification. Aquacultured fish feces were found to be P-rich, because of a lower P assimilation efficiency, compared to C or N assimilation efficiencies. Examination of aquacultured fish literature also revealed that C, N and P GGE and nutrient resupply ratios agreed with basic principles of homeostatic regulation of whole-body fish elemental composition. Extrapolation of the results to broader marine systems indicated that fish may be important for conveying nutrients toward the ocean interior.