A Method for Ensemble Wildland Fire Simulation

An ensemble simulation system that accounts for uncertainty in long-range weather conditions and two-dimensional wildland fire spread is described. Fuel moisture is expressed based on the energy release component, a US fire danger rating index, and its variation throughout the fire season is modeled using time series analysis of historical weather data. This analysis is used to characterize the seasonal trend in ERC, autocorrelation of residuals, and daily standard deviation and stochastically generate artificial time series of afternoon fuel moisture. Daily wind speed and direction are sampled stochastically from joint probabilities of historical wind speed and direction for the date range of the fire simulation period. Hundreds or thousands of fire growth simulations are then performed using the synthetic fire weather sequences. The performance of these methods is evaluated in terms of the number of ensemble member simulations, one- versus two-dimensional fire spread simulations, and comparison with results from 91 fires occurring from 2007 to 2009. Simulations were found to be in consistent agreement with observations, but trends indicate that the ensemble average of simulated fire sizes were consistently larger than actual fires whereas the farthest extent burned by fires was underestimated.     

Occurrence of PCBs in raw and finished drinking water at seven public water systems along the Hudson River

Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were measured in raw and finished drinking water at seven Public Water Systems (PWSs) along the Hudson River as part of a baseline monitoring program prior to the extensive sediment dredging of the Upper Hudson River. Water samples were either analyzed using an Aroclor method (based on USEPA Method 508) or a congener method (Modified Green Bay Mass Balance Method). Using the congener-based method, raw water concentrations ranged from <9.3 to 164.3 ng/L and finished water concentrations ranged from <9.3 to 186.6 ng/L. Using the Aroclor method, finished water concentrations ranged from <5.0 to 200.9 ng/L. Most finished water samples above 73.0 ng/L were from a PWS with wells drilled near the river. Excluding the well data, total PCB concentrations in raw water at systems in the Upper River were similar to concentrations at systems in the Lower River, though the congener patterns differed. Paired comparison of total PCB concentrations using the two analytical methods showed good agreement, although raw water showed a different relationship than finished water.     

Substratum preferences in planula larvae of two species of scleractinian corals, Goniastrea retiformis and Stylaraea punctata

To test whether coral planulae recruit randomly to different coral reef habitats or have specific substratum preferences, the settling behavior of planulae from two shallow water coral species from Pago Bay, Guam (13°25.02N, 144°47.30E) were examined in the laboratory in June and July of 1995. Goniastrea retiformis is generally restricted to the shallow reef front (<10 m depth) in areas dominated by crustose coralline algae (CCA), while Stylaraea punctata is abundant on inner reef flats were CCA coverage is low and sand and carbonate rubble covered by biofilms is common. When presented with four substrata (1) carbonate rock scrubbed free of biofilm and dried as a control, (2) the CCA Hydrolithon reinboldii, (3) the CCA Peyssonelia sp., and (4) naturally conditioned carbonate rubble covered by a biofilm, G. retiformis larvae showed a significant preference for H. reinboldii, and S. punctata larvae for the carbonate biofilm treatment. The preference shown by S. punctata larvae for biofilmed surfaces did not diminish with increasing larval age up to 11 days. These results suggest that the larvae of both species are capable of habitat selection, and that the preferred substrata among those tested bears a relationship to the habitats in which adult colonies were found. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Electrokinetic ion transport through unsaturated soil: 1. Theory, model development, and testing

An electromigration transport model for non-reactive ion transport in unsaturated soil was developed and tested against laboratory experiments. This model assumed the electric potential field was constant with respect to time, an assumption valid for highly buffered soil, or when the electrode electrolysis reactions are neutralized. The model also assumed constant moisture contents and temperature with respect to time, and that electroosmotic and hydraulic transport of water through the soil was negligible. A functional relationship between ionic mobility and the electrolyte concentration was estimated using the chemical activity coefficient. Tortuosity was calculated from a mathematical relationship fitted to the electrical conductivity of the bulk pore water and soil moisture data. The functional relationship between ionic mobility, pore-water concentration, and tortuosity as a function of moisture content allowed the model to predict ion transport in heterogeneous unsaturated soils. The model was tested against laboratory measurements assessing anionic electromigration as a function of moisture content. In the test cell, a strip of soil was spiked with red dye No 40 and monitored for a 24-h period while a 10-mA current was maintained between the electrodes. Electromigration velocities predicted by the electromigration transport model were in agreement with laboratory experimental results. Both laboratory-measured and model-predicted dye migration results indicated a maximum transport velocity at moisture contents less than saturation due to competing effects between current density and tortuosity as moisture content decreases.     

A stochastic model for estimating sustainable limits to wildlife mortality in a changing world

Human-caused mortality of wildlife is a pervasive threat to biodiversity. Assessing the population-level impact of fisheries bycatch and other human-caused mortality of wildlife has typically relied upon deterministic methods. However, population declines are often accelerated by stochastic factors that are not accounted for in such conventional methods. Building on the widely applied potential biological removal (PBR) equation, we devised a new population modeling approach for estimating sustainable limits to human-caused mortality and applied it in a case study of bottlenose dolphins affected by capture in an Australian demersal otter trawl fishery. Our approach, termed sustainable anthropogenic mortality in stochastic environments (SAMSE), incorporates environmental and demographic stochasticity, including the dependency of offspring on their mothers. The SAMSE limit is the maximum number of individuals that can be removed without causing negative stochastic population growth. We calculated a PBR of 16.2 dolphins per year based on the best abundance estimate available. In contrast, the SAMSE model indicated that only 2.3–8.0 dolphins could be removed annually without causing a population decline in a stochastic environment. These results suggest that reported bycatch rates are unsustainable in the long term, unless reproductive rates are consistently higher than average. The difference between the deterministic PBR calculation and the SAMSE limits showed that deterministic approaches may underestimate the true impact of human-caused mortality of wildlife. This highlights the importance of integrating stochasticity when evaluating the impact of bycatch or other human-caused mortality on wildlife, such as hunting, lethal control measures, and wind turbine collisions. Although population viability analysis (PVA) has been used to evaluate the impact of human-caused mortality, SAMSE represents a novel PVA framework that incorporates stochasticity for estimating acceptable levels of human-caused mortality. It offers a broadly applicable, stochastic addition to the demographic toolbox to evaluate the impact of human-caused mortality on wildlife.     

Constitutive and induced defenses to herbivory in above- and belowground plant tissues

A recent surge in attention devoted to the ecology of soil biota has prompted interest in quantifying similarities and differences between interactions occurring in above- and belowground communities. Furthermore, linkages that interconnect the dynamics of these two spatially distinct ecosystems are increasingly documented. We use a similar approach in the context of understanding plant defenses to herbivory, including how they are allocated between leaves and roots (constitutive defenses), and potential cross-system linkages (induced defenses). To explore these issues we utilized three different empirical approaches. First, we manipulated foliar and root herbivory on tobacco (Nicotiana tabacum) and measured changes in the secondary chemistry of above- and belowground tissues. Second, we reviewed published studies that compared levels of secondary chemistry between leaves and roots to determine how plants distribute putative defense chemicals across the above- and belowground systems. Last, we used meta-analysis to quantify the impact of induced responses across plant tissue types. In the tobacco system, leaf-chewing insects strongly induced higher levels of secondary metabolites in leaves but had no impact on root chemistry. Nematode root herbivores, however, elicited changes in both leaves and roots. Virtually all secondary chemicals measured were elevated in nematode-induced galls, whereas the impact of root herbivory on foliar chemistry was highly variable and depended on where chemicals were produced within the plant. Importantly, nematodes interfered with aboveground metabolites that have biosynthetic sites located in roots (e.g., nicotine) but had the opposite effect (i.e., nematodes elevated foliar expression) on chemicals produced in shoots (e.g., phenolics and terpenoids). Results from our literature review suggest that, overall, constitutive defense levels are extremely similar when comparing leaves with roots, although certain chemical classes (e.g., alkaloids, glucosinolates) are differentially allocated between above- and belowground parts. Based on a meta-analysis of induced defense studies we conclude that: (1) foliar induction generates strong responses in leaves, but much weaker responses in roots, and (2) root induction elicits responses of equal magnitude in both leaves and roots. We discuss the importance of this asymmetry and the paradox of cross-system induction in relation to optimal defense theory and interactions between above- and belowground herbivory.     

Elephants as agents of habitat creation for small vertebrates at the patch scale

Ecologists increasingly recognize the ability of certain species to influence ecological processes by engineering the physical environment, but efforts to develop a predictive understanding of this phenomenon are in their early stages. While many believe that the landscape-scale effects of ecosystem engineers will be to increase habitat diversity and therefore the abundance and richness of other species, few generalities exist about the effects of engineering at the scale of the engineered patch. According to one hypothesis, activities that increase structural habitat complexity within engineered patches will have positive effects on the abundance or diversity of other organisms. Here I show that, by damaging trees and increasing their structural complexity, browsing elephants create refuges used by a common arboreal lizard. Observational surveys and a lizard transplant experiment revealed that lizards preferentially occupy trees with real or simulated elephant damage. A second experiment showed that lizards vacate trees when elephant-engineered refuges are removed. Furthermore, local lizard densities increased with (and may be constrained by) local densities of elephant-damaged trees. This facilitative effect of elephants upon lizards via patch-scale habitat modification runs contrary to previously documented negative effects of the entire ungulate guild on lizards at the landscape scale, suggesting that net indirect effects of large herbivores comprise opposing trophic and engineering interactions operating at different spatial scales. Such powerful megaherbivore-initiated interactions suggest that anthropogenic changes in large-mammal densities will have important cascading consequences for ecological communities.     

Biofilm grazing in a higher vertebrate: the western sandpiper, Calidris mauri

We show that a higher vertebrate can graze surficial intertidal biofilm, previously only considered a food source for rasping invertebrates and a few specialized fish. Using evidence from video recordings, stomach contents, and stable isotopes, we describe for the first time the grazing behavior of Western Sandpipers (Calidris mauri) and estimate that biofilm accounts for 45-59% of their total diet or 50% of their daily energy budget. Our finding of shorebirds as herbivores extends the trophic range of shorebirds to primary consumers and potential competitors with grazing invertebrates. Also, given individual grazing rates estimated at seven times body mass per day and flock sizes into the tens of thousands, biofilm-feeding shorebirds could have major impacts on sediment dynamics. We stress the importance of the physical and biological processes maintaining biofilm to shorebird and intertidal conservation.     

Are rivers just big streams? A pulse method to quantify nitrogen demand in a large river

Given recent focus on large rivers as conduits for excess nutrients to coastal zones, their role in processing and retaining nutrients has been overlooked and understudied. Empirical measurements of nutrient uptake in large rivers are lacking, despite a substantial body of knowledge on nutrient transport and removal in smaller streams. Researchers interested in nutrient transport by rivers (discharge >10000 L/s) are left to extrapolate riverine nutrient demand using a modeling framework or a mass balance approach. To begin to fill this knowledge gap, we present data using a pulse method to measure inorganic nitrogen. (N) transport and removal in the Upper Snake River, Wyoming, USA (seventh order, discharge 12000 L/s). We found that the Upper Snake had surprisingly high biotic demand relative to smaller streams in the same river network for both ammonium (NH4+) and nitrate (NO3-). Placed in the context of a meta-analysis of previously published nutrient uptake studies, these data suggest that large rivers may have similar biotic demand for N as smaller tributaries. We also found that demand for different forms of inorganic N (NH4+ vs. NO3-) scaled differently with stream size. Data from rivers like the Upper Snake and larger are essential for effective water quality management at the scale of river networks. Empirical measurements of solute dynamics in large rivers are needed to understand the role of whole river networks (as opposed to stream reaches) in patterns of nutrient export at regional and continental scales.     

Spatial–temporal pattern of bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus L. 1758) gonad maturation across the Mediterranean Sea

Atlantic bluefin tuna (BFT; Thunnus thynnus) is a migrating species straddling the North Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean Sea. It is assumed that this species is divided into a western and an eastern stock, which spawn in the Gulf of Mexico and the Mediterranean Sea, respectively. To learn more about the reproductive behavior of the eastern BFT stock, we tracked gonadal development in adult fish that were sampled between April and July during three consecutive years (2003–2005). Sampling campaigns were carried out using common fishing methods at selected locations within the Mediterranean Sea, namely Levantine Sea, Malta, and Balearic Islands. An additional sampling point, Barbate, was situated northwest of the Straits of Gibraltar along the Atlantic coast. Morphometric parameters such as the total body mass (M _B) and the weights of the gonads (M _G) were recorded, and the respective gonadosomatic index (GSI) values were calculated. The data collected revealed two important trends: (1) GSI values are higher in fish caught in the eastern rather than the western locations across the Mediterranean Sea, and (2) the GSI reaches maximum values between late May and early June in Levantine Sea (eastern Mediterranean Sea), and only 2 and 4 weeks later in the central (Malta) and western (Balearic Islands) locations, respectively. The advanced gonadal development in BFT correlates well with higher sea surface temperatures. Our findings also distinguish the northern Levantine Sea BFT population (mean M _B 78.41 ± 4.13 kg), and the Barbate BFT population with the greatest M _B (all fish sampled > 100 kg). These data reflect a situation in which the eastern Mediterranean basin may function as a habitat for young BFT, until they gain a larger M _B and are able to move to the Atlantic Ocean. However, the existence of genetically discrete BFT populations in the Mediterranean Sea cannot be ruled out.