An analysis of motorcycle injury and vehicle damage severity using ordered probit models

Problem: Motorcycles constitute about 19% of all motorized vehicles in Singapore and are generally overrepresented in traffic accidents, accounting for 40% of total fatalities. Method: In this paper, an ordered probit model is used to examine factors that affect the injury severity of motorcycle accidents and the severity of damage to the vehicle for those crashes. Nine years of motorcycle accident data were obtained for Singapore through police reports. These data included categorical assessments of the severity of accidents based on three levels. Damage severity to the vehicle was also assessed and categorized into four levels. Categorical data of this type are best analyzed using ordered probit models because they require no assumptions regarding the ordinality of the dependent variable, which in this case is the severity score. Various models are examined to determine what factors are related to increased injury and damage severity of motorcycle accidents. Results: Factors found to lead to increases in the probability of severe injuries include the motorcyclist having non-Singaporean nationality, increased engine capacity, headlight not turned on during daytime, collisions with pedestrians and stationary objects, driving during early morning hours, having a pillion passenger, and when the motorcyclist is determined to be at fault for the accident. Factors leading to increased probability of vehicle damage include some similar factors but also show some differences, such as less damage associated with pedestrian collisions and with female drivers. In addition, it was also found that both injury severity and vehicle damage severity levels are decreasing over time.     

CONFLICT ANALYSIS OF THE SHOAL LAKE SUBDWISION1

ABSTRACT: The techniques of conflict analysis derived from game theory were applied to the Shoal Lake water supply conflict in southeastern Manitoba, Canada. The issue of conflict is the desire of an Indian Band in the area to build cottage lots near the intake for water supply for the City of Winnipeg. The City of Winnipeg contends that such a development would seriously affect the quality of water supplied to the City, thereby increasing its treatment costs significantly. The four major players defined for the conflict are the City of Winnipeg, Indian Band No. 40, the Province of Manitoba, and the Federal Department of Indian and Northern Affairs. The results of the conflict analysis suggest that the introduction of the provincial and federal government into the conifict will not assist significantly in its resolution and that further progress on the resolution is unlikely until the results of Federal Environment Assessment Review office hearing become available.     

A field intercomparison and fundamental characterization of various dust samplers with a reference sampler

The European Economic Community Council Directive 80/779/EEC describes air quality limit values and guide values for sulfur dioxide and suspended particulates. However, article 10, paragraph 1 does not define well enough the reference method required, amongst others, for the gravimetric measurement of suspended particulates. It is explicity stated in article 10, paragraph 5 of the directive, that "the commission shall, in selected locations in the member states and in cooperation with the latter, carry out studies on the sampling...of suspended particulates. These studies shall be designed in particular to promote the harmonization of methods of sampling and analysis of these pollutants." Therefore, in a joint research program the Umweltbundesamt (grant #104 02263), the commission of European Communities (grant #84-B-6642-11-017-11-N) and the U.S. EPA (grant #2-432U-3580) funded the development of a reference dust sampler by the Fraunhofer-Institute of Toxicology and Aerosol Research (FhlTA, in Hannover, Federal Republic of Germany) in order: to study the particle size distribution of ambient air aerosol at a number of selected sites; to compare the results obtained with the reference dust sampler with those of particle samplers operated in Europe and the United States; to verify the applicability of wind tunnel results to sampling behaviour in the free atmosphere.     

Importance of cholinesterase kinetic parameters in environmental monitoring using estuarine fish

The aim of the present study was to determine the kinetic parameters and cholinesterase (ChE) activity in two teleost fish, the white mouth croaker Micropogonias furnieri (Scianidae) and the Madamango sea catfish Cathorops spixii (Ariidae), to verify their suitability as sentinel species of aquatic pollution by anticholinergic compounds. Individuals of each species were captured in one reference and one polluted site in the Southern Brazilian coast. Brain tissue was used as enzyme source. Inhibition kinetic parameters indicated that ChE from C. spixii collected at the reference site showed more affinity (Ka) for eserine that from those collected at the polluted site. The opposite was observed for the carbamylation constants (Kc). Thus, similar inhibition constants (Ki) were observed. M. furnieri brain showed an extremely low sensitivity to in vitro inhibition by eserine, indicating that it is not a suitable biomarker to be employed in environmental monitoring of anticholinergic compounds. Results from the present study also point to the need for considering kinetic analysis when cholinesterase activity is employed as a biomarker.     

Field survey of the occurrence and significance of regeneration in Amphiura chiajei (Echinodermata: Ophiuroidea) from Killary Habrour,west coast of Ireland

The boreo-Mediterranean amphiurid Amphiura chiajei Forbes occurs in high numbers (700 individuals/m²) in Killary Harbour, a fjordic inlet on the west coast of Ireland. 99.1% of the adult individuals show signs of arm regeneration, while 0.5% show regeneration of the disc. A study of the phenomenon commenced in November 1987 and continued on a seasonal basis until July 1989. Specimens were collected by SCUBA. The overall mean length of regenerated arm tissue over the 21 mo sampling period was 33.5±6.5 mm. Regeneration points were most common in the proximal and in the distal one-third of each arm. An overall mean of 4.21±0.3 arms per individual showed evidence of regeneration, while biomass assays revealed that regenerated tissue accounted for up to 57.9% of the total body weight. Anthropogenic activity (e.g. bottom trawling) may contribute to regeneration, although sub-lethal predation appears to be the main causitive factor of regeneration. Gut analyses of potential predators at the sampling station revealed that fish species (especially the Pleuronectidae) are particularly implicated. This predation seems to vary seasonally, being greatest in the summer months. Since the larger individuals showed the greatest evidence of arm regeneration, it is assumed that such sub-lethal damage is a persistent experience. Whatever the causality, the population of A. chiajei in Killary Harbour is deemed to be highly resilient.     

Incorporating Uncertainty Into the Ranking of SPARROW Model Nutrient Yields From Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin Watersheds1

Abstract: Excessive loads of nutrients transported by tributary rivers have been linked to hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico. Management efforts to reduce the hypoxic zone in the Gulf of Mexico and improve the water quality of rivers and streams could benefit from targeting nutrient reductions toward watersheds with the highest nutrient yields delivered to sensitive downstream waters. One challenge is that most conventional watershed modeling approaches (e.g., mechanistic models) used in these management decisions do not consider uncertainties in the predictions of nutrient yields and their downstream delivery. The increasing use of parameter estimation procedures to statistically estimate model coefficients, however, allows uncertainties in these predictions to be reliably estimated. Here, we use a robust bootstrapping procedure applied to the results of a previous application of the hybrid statistical/mechanistic watershed model SPARROW (Spatially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes) to develop a statistically reliable method for identifying “high priority” areas for management, based on a probabilistic ranking of delivered nutrient yields from watersheds throughout a basin. The method is designed to be used by managers to prioritize watersheds where additional stream monitoring and evaluations of nutrient‐reduction strategies could be undertaken. Our ranking procedure incorporates information on the confidence intervals of model predictions and the corresponding watershed rankings of the delivered nutrient yields. From this quantified uncertainty, we estimate the probability that individual watersheds are among a collection of watersheds that have the highest delivered nutrient yields. We illustrate the application of the procedure to 818 eight‐digit Hydrologic Unit Code watersheds in the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River basin by identifying 150 watersheds having the highest delivered nutrient yields to the Gulf of Mexico. Highest delivered yields were from watersheds in the Central Mississippi, Ohio, and Lower Mississippi River basins. With 90% confidence, only a few watersheds can be reliably placed into the highest 150 category; however, many more watersheds can be removed from consideration as not belonging to the highest 150 category. Results from this ranking procedure provide robust information on watershed nutrient yields that can benefit management efforts to reduce nutrient loadings to downstream coastal waters, such as the Gulf of Mexico, or to local receiving streams and reservoirs.     

Correlation of human olfactory responses to airborne concentrations of malodorous volatile organic compounds emitted from swine effluent

Direct multicomponent analysis of malodorous volatile organic compounds (VOCs) present in ambient air samples from 29 swine (Sus scrofa) production facilities was used to develop a 19-component artificial swine odor solution that simulated olfactory properties of swine effluent. Analyses employing either a human panel consisting of 14 subjects or gas chromatography were performed on the air stream from an emission chamber to assess human olfactory responses or odorant concentration, respectively. Analysis of the olfactory responses using Fisher's LSD statistics showed that the subjects were sensitive to changes in air concentration of the VOC standard across dilutions differing by approximately 16%. The effect of chemical synergisms and antagonisms on human olfactory response magnitudes was assessed by altering the individual concentration of nine compounds in artificial swine odor over a twofold concentration range while maintaining the other 18 components at a constant concentration. A synergistic olfactory response was observed when the air concentration of acetic acid was increased relative to the concentration of other VOC odorants in the standard. An antagonistic olfactory response was observed when the air concentration of 4-ethyl phenol was increased relative to the other VOC odorants in the standard. The collective odorant responses for nine major VOCs associated with swine odor were used to develop an olfactory prediction model to estimate human odor response magnitudes to swine manure odorants through measured air concentrations of indicator VOCs. The results of this study show that direct multicomponent analysis of VOCs emitted from swine effluent can be applied toward estimating perceived odor intensity.