How do Europeans want to live in 2040? Citizen visions and their consequences for European land use

The aspirations, motivations and choices of individual European citizens are a major driver of the future of global, European and local land use. However, until now no land use study has explicitly attempted to find out how the general public wants to live in the future. This paper forms a first attempt to survey European citizens to understand their desired future lives in relation to consequences for European land use. We used a crowdsourcing experiment to elicit visions from young Europeans about their lives in 2040. Participants completed a graphic novel around carefully selected questions, allowing them to create a story of their imagined future lives in pictures. The methodology worked well, and the sample seemed reasonably representative albeit skewed towards an educated population. In total, 1131 responses from 29 countries were received. Results show a strong desire for change, and for more sustainable lifestyles. There is desire for local and ecologically friendly food production, to eat less meat, to have access to green infrastructure and the ability to cycle to work. However, international travel remains popular, and the desire for extensive food production and owning detached houses with gardens will likely result in complex land use trade-offs. Future work could focus more specifically on quantifying these trade-offs and inform respondents about the consequences of their lifestyle choices. This was a first attempt to use crowdsourcing to understand citizen visions for their lives in the future, and our lessons learned will help future studies improve representativeness and increase responses.

     

Land managers’ behaviours modulate pathways to visions of future land systems

Regional Environmental Change - Attempts to influence the development of land systems are often based on detailed scenarios that constrain relevant factors, describe a range of divergent but...     

Fragmentation drives tropical forest fragments to early successional states: A modelling study for Brazilian Atlantic forests

Land use leads to massive habitat destruction and fragmentation in tropical forests. Despite its global dimensions the effects of fragmentation on ecosystem dynamics are not well understood due to the complexity of the problem. We present a simulation analysis performed by the individual-based model FORMIND. The model was applied to the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, one of the world's biodiversity hot spots, at the Plateau of São Paulo. This study investigates the long-term effects of fragmentation processes on structure and dynamics of different sized remnant tropical forest fragments (1-100 ha) at community and plant functional type (PFT) level. We disentangle the interplay of single effects of different key fragmentation processes (edge mortality, increased mortality of large trees, local seed loss and external seed rain) using simulation experiments in a full factorial design.Our analysis reveals that particularly small forest fragments below 25 ha suffer substantial structural changes, biomass and biodiversity loss in the long term. At community level biomass is reduced up to 60%. Two thirds of the mid- and late-successional species groups, especially shade-tolerant (late successional climax) species groups are prone of extinction in small fragments. The shade-tolerant species groups were most strongly affected; its tree number was reduced more than 60% mainly by increased edge mortality. This process proved to be the most powerful of those investigated, explaining alone more than 80% of the changes observed for this group. External seed rain was able to compensate approximately 30% of the observed fragmentation effects for shade-tolerant species.Our results suggest that tropical forest fragments will suffer strong structural changes in the long term, leading to tree species impoverishment. They may reach a new equilibrium with a substantially reduced subset of the initial species pool, and are driven towards an earlier successional state. The natural regeneration potential of a landscape scattered with forest fragments appears to be limited, as external seed rain is not able to fully compensate for the observed fragmentation-induced changes. Our findings suggest basic recommendations for the management of fragmented tropical forest landscapes.     

Brominated-chlorinated diphenyl ethers formed by thermolysis of polybrominated diphenyl ethers at low temperatures

Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) are a group of brominated flame retardants (BFRs) used mainly as additives in different kinds of plastic material. Various PBDEs are found in all environmental compartments as well as in tissue and blood serum of animals and humans due to their persistence and tendency to bioaccumulate. Emission of PBDEs into the environment can occur during recycling of PBDE-containing plastic material or during their uncontrolled or insufficient combustion as e.g. in accidental fires or landfill fires. Under these circumstances, PBDEs can also function as precursor molecules for the formation of polybrominated dibenzodioxins (PBDDs) and dibenzofurans (PBDFs). In this study, we qualitatively investigated the reaction of two PBDE congeners, 2,2′,4,4′-tetrabromo diphenyl ether (BDE 47) and 2,2′,4,4′,5,5′-hexabromo diphenyl ether (BDE 153), as well as hexabromobenzene (HBB), a flame retardant used in the past, when exposed to temperatures between 250 °C and 500 °C. The formed reaction products were analysed by high resolution gas chromatography–low resolution mass spectrometry (HRGC-LRMS). Among others brominated–chlorinated diphenyl ethers were formed by chlorodebromination of the PBDEs. In addition, thermolysis of BDE 47 and BDE 153 in the presence of tetrachloromethane as model substance for an organic chlorine source was studied. Thermal treatment of HBB resulted in the formation of brominated–chlorinated benzenes.     

EFFECT OF SYSTEM LAYOUT ON SUBSURFACE DRAINAGE COST IN FLAT IRRIGATED LAND1

ABSTRACT: The economic feasibility of large-scale subsurface drainage projects in irrigated land is affected by construction costs. This study was conducted to evaluate the effect of two different types of subsurface drainage system layout on construction costs for a 1000 ha pilot area located in the Nile Delta of Egypt. The two types of layout studied were the conventional layout currently used in Egypt and the modified layout that was developed for reducing water losses from rice fields. When compared to the conventional layout, the modified layout resulted in a reduction of 6.74 percent in construction costs (714,464 US$ versus 766,142 US$). This cost reduction is explained by the need for lesser lengths of large diameter collector pipes with the modified layout, which results from the smaller drainage area of subsurface drainage systems (average 23.7 versus 30.8 ha). We have found that the cost of subsurface drainage can be minimized by reducing the area drained by each subsurface drainage system.     

The impact of fragmentation and density regulation on forest succession in the Atlantic rain forest

The Atlantic Rain Forest, an important biodiversity hot spot, has faced severe habitat loss since the last century which has resulted in a highly fragmented landscape with a large number of small forest patches (<100 ha). For conservation planning it is essential to understand how current and future forest regeneration depends on ecological processes, fragment size and the connection to the regional seed pool. We have investigated the following questions by applying the forest growth simulation model FORMIND to the situation of the Atlantic Forest in the state of São Paulo, SE Brazil: (1) which set of parameters describing the local regeneration and level of density regulation can reproduce the biomass distribution and stem density of an old growth forest in a reserve? (2) Which additional processes apart from those describing the dynamics of an old growth forest, drive forest succession of small isolated fragments? (3) Which role does external seed input play during succession? Therefore, more than 300 tree species have been classified into nine plant functional types (PFTs), which are characterized by maximum potential height and shade tolerance. We differentiate between two seed dispersal modes: (i) local dispersal, i.e. all seedlings originated from fertile trees within the simulated area and (ii) external seed rain. Local seed dispersal has been parameterized following the pattern oriented approach, using biomass estimates of old growth forest. We have found that moderate density regulation is essential to achieve coexistence for a broad range of regeneration parameters. Considering the expected uncertainty and variability in the regeneration processes it is important that the forest dynamics are robust to variations in the regeneration parameters. Furthermore, edge effects such as increased mortality at the border and external seed rain have been necessary to reproduce the patterns for small isolated fragments. Overall, simulated biomass is much lower in the fragments compared to the continuous forest, whereas shade tolerant species are affected most strongly by fragmentation. Our simulations can supplement empirical studies by extrapolating local knowledge on edge effects of fragments to larger temporal and spatial scales. In particular our results show the importance of external seed rain and therefore highlight the importance of structural connectivity between regenerating fragments and mature forest stands.