A Variance Estimator for Constrained Estimates of Change in Relative Categorical Frequencies

Consistent estimators of change and state becomes an issue when sample data come from a mix of permanent and temporary observation units. A joint maximum likelihood estimator of state and change creates estimates of state that depend on antecedent viz. posterior survey results and may differ from estimates of state derived from a single-date analysis of the sample data. A constrained estimator of change in relative categorical frequencies that eliminates this potential inconsistency is proposed and a model based estimator of their sampling variance is developed. The performance of the constrained estimator is quantified against six criteria and a joint maximum likelihood estimator in simulated sampling from 15 populations with three combinations of permanent and temporary samples, four to six categorical class attributes, and constant size between sampling dates. Bias of the constrained estimators was negligible but larger than for joint maximum likelihood estimators. Mean absolute deviations and variances of constrained estimators were generally at par with the joint estimators. Constrained estimators of root mean square errors and achieved coverage of nominal confidence intervals of constrained estimators were occasionally better. A generalized variance function for the constrained estimates of change is provided as a computational shortcut.     

Probability analyses of combining background concentrations with model-predicted concentrations

In order to calculate total concentrations for comparison to ambient air quality standards, monitored background concentrations are often combined with model predicted concentrations. Models have low skill in predicting the locations or time series of observed concentrations. Further, adding fixed points on the probability distributions of monitored and predicted concentrations is very conservative and not mathematically correct. Simply adding the 99th percentile predicted to the 99th percentile background will not yield the 99th percentile of the combined distributions. Instead, an appropriate distribution can be created by calculating all possible pairwise combinations of the 1-hr daily maximum observed background and daily maximum predicted concentration, from which a 99th percentile total value can be obtained. This paper reviews some techniques commonly used for determining background concentrations and combining modeled and background concentrations. The paper proposes an approach to determine the joint probabilities of occurrence of modeled and background concentrations. The pairwise combinations approach yields a more realistic prediction of total concentrations than the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) guidance approach and agrees with the probabilistic form of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards.

Implications: EPA's current approaches to determining background concentrations for compliance modeling purposes often lead to “double counting” of background concentrations and actual plume impacts and thus lead to overpredictions of total impacts. Further, the current Tier 1 approach of simply adding the top ends of the background and model predicted concentrations (e.g., adding the 99th percentiles of these distributions together) results in design value concentrations at probabilities in excess of the form of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards.     

Comparative statistical study of hourly precipitation determined by radar-based Stage IV and ground-based methods in the North Central United States

Detailed hourly precipitation data are required for long-range modeling of dispersion and wet deposition of particulate matter and water-soluble pollutants using the CALPUFF model. In sparsely populated areas such as the north central United States, ground-based precipitation measurement stations may be too widely spaced to offer a complete and accurate spatial representation of hourly precipitation within a modeling domain. The availability of remotely sensed precipitation data by satellite and the National Weather Service array of next-generation radars (NEXRAD) deployed nationally provide an opportunity to improve on the paucity of data for these areas. Before adopting a new method of precipitation estimation in a modeling protocol, it should be compared with the ground-based precipitation measurements, which are currently relied upon for modeling purposes. This paper presents a statistical comparison between hourly precipitation measurements for the years 2006 through 2008 at 25 ground-based stations in the north central United States and radar-based precipitation measurements available from the National Center for Environmental Predictions (NCEP) as Stage IV data at the nearest grid cell to each selected precipitation station. It was found that the statistical agreement between the two methods depends strongly on whether the ground-based hourly precipitation is measured to within 0.1 in/hr or to within 0.01 in/hr. The results of the statistical comparison indicate that it would be more accurate to use gridded Stage IV precipitation data in a gridded dispersion model for a long-range simulation, than to rely on precipitation data interpolated between widely scattered rain gauges.

Implications:

The current reliance on ground-based rain gauges for precipitation events and hourly data for modeling of dispersion and wet deposition of particulate matter and water-soluble pollutants results in potentially large discontinuity in data coverage and the need to extrapolate data between monitoring stations. The use of radar-based precipitation data, which is available for the entire continental United States and nearby areas, would resolve these data gaps and provide a complete and accurate spatial representation of hourly precipitation within a large modeling domain.     

Local Perceptions of Changes in Traditional Ecological Knowledge: A Case Study from Malekula Island,Vanuatu

Traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) is a critical global resource that may be eroding amid social and environmental change. Here, we present data on local perceptions of TEK change from three communities on Malekula Island in Vanuatu. Utilizing a structured interview (n = 120), we find a common perception of TEK loss. Participants defined two key periods of TEK erosion (roughly 1940–1960 and 1980–present), and noted that TEK decline was driven both external (e.g., church) and internal (e.g., shifting values) processes. Erosion was perceived to more comprehensive in the worldview domain than in aspects of ethnobiological knowledge and practice. These data indicate the perceived fragility of TEK systems and the complexity of TEK change. TEK systems are critical to natural resource management, and data such as these will assist in designing nuanced responses to the ongoing loss of cultural knowledge and practice.     

Why do <Emphasis Type="Italic">Manduca sexta</Emphasis> feed from white flowers? Innate and learnt colour preferences in a hawkmoth

Flower colour is an important signal used by flowering plants to attract pollinators. Many anthophilous insects have an innate colour preference that is displayed during their first foraging bouts and which could help them locate their first nectar reward. Nevertheless, learning capabilities allow insects to switch their colour preferences with experience and thus, to track variation in floral nectar availability. Manduca sexta, a crepuscular hawkmoth widely studied as a model system for sensory physiology and behaviour, visits mostly white, night-blooming flowers lacking UV reflectance throughout its range in the Americas. Nevertheless, the spectral sensitivity of the feeding behaviour of naïve moths shows a narrow peak around 450 nm wavelengths, suggesting an innate preference for the colour blue. Under more natural conditions (i.e. broader wavelength reflectance) than in previous studies, we used dual choice experiments with blue- and white-coloured feeders to investigate the innate preference of naïve moths and trained different groups to each colour to evaluate their learning capabilities. We confirmed the innate preference of M. sexta for blue and found that these moths were able to switch colour preferences after training experience. These results unequivocally demonstrate that M. sexta moths innately prefer blue when presented against white flower models and offer novel experimental evidence supporting the hypothesis that learning capabilities could be involved in their foraging preferences, including their widely observed attraction to white flowers in nature.     

Sediment and nutrient dynamics during snowmelt runoff generation in a southern Taiga catchment of Russia

The water quality of the Volga catchment, Russia, is diminished and major nutrients reach critical levels. Proper management strategies depend on process knowledge about nutrient sources and pathways as well as appropriate models. For the 18.8 km² experimental catchment Lubazhinkha, 100 km south of Moscow, a monitoring scheme was conducted to identify runoff generation and nutrient source areas. The grey forest soils of the catchment are utilized with arable land and pasture (54%) and forest areas. The received results show a high intra-annual and inter-annual dynamic of the snowmelt runoff generation as major hydrological process. Overall sediment export rates during the 3 years of snowmelt investigation from 2003 to 2005 are low with a maximum of 0.33 t ha⁻¹ during snowmelt period 2005 and effectively reduced by a dam at the catchment outlet. Also, the total phosphorus loss from the catchment is low reaching from 0.03 to 0.35 kg ha⁻¹ during the snowmelt periods. However, sediment and total phosphorus concentrations vary within one snowmelt event and can reach high concentrations. Detailed analysis of element concentrations during snowmelt events allows an identification of different flow components and runoff generating mechanisms. During low flow situations phosphorus and dissolved organic carbon are transferred from the arable soils with slow flow components to the channel. In contrast to this situation, the sources of sediment and nutrients split up temporarily and spatially during high flow situations. Aside arable fields that are source of sediment and phosphorus during snowmelt episodes, the forested areas were detected as major source for the export of dissolved organic carbon with surface runoff. In particular these areas are characterized by a late thawing of the topsoil which causes a delayed peak of dissolved organic carbon concentration. The awareness of the dynamic and complex catchment reaction during snowmelt events is of importance for the development of proper management strategies.     

Indicators of sustainable production: framework and methodology

This paper presents a new tool for promoting business sustainability — indicators of sustainable production. It first introduces the concept of sustainable production as defined by the Lowell Center for Sustainable Production, University of Massachusetts Lowell. Indicators of sustainable production are discussed next, including their dimensions and desirable qualities. Based on the Lowell Center Indicator Framework, the authors suggest a new methodology of core and supplemental indicators for raising companies' awareness and measuring their progress toward sustainable production systems. Twenty-two core indicators are proposed and a detailed guidance for their application is included. An eight-step model provides a context for indicator implementation. The paper concludes with a summary of the strengths and weaknesses of the methodology as well as recommendations for testing the indicators.     

Early ultrasound diagnosis of Neu–Laxova syndrome

We report the mid-trimester prenatal diagnosis of Neu–Laxova syndrome (NLS) in two at risk families utilizing serial sonographic examinations. Ultrasound and pathologic findings from seven affected pregnancies, the largest case series of NLS to date, are presented. One fetus had anencephaly and incomplete rachischisis, an anomaly that has not been previously reported in association with NLS. Ultrasonographic detection of severe intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR), abnormally postured limbs, microcephaly, and edema allowed prenatal diagnosis of NLS in five of these at risk pregnancies during the mid-trimester. Growth curves derived from serial sonograms reveal abnormalities of all standard biometric measurements. The growth discrepancy was most pronounced in the measurements of the biparietal diameter, which were consistently less than two standard deviations below the mean across all gestational ages. This case series confirms that aberrant growth and anomalies may be detected sufficiently early in gestation to permit prenatal diagnosis of NLS. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Second-trimester maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (MSAFP) iselevated in women with adverse pregnancy outcome associated with inherited thrombophilias

Obstetric complications, such as severe pre-eclampsia, fetal growth restriction, abruptio placentae, or stillbirth are associated with abnormally elevated second-trimester maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (MSAFP) and β subunit of human chorionic gonadotrophin (βhCG). This has been attributed to placental abnormalities. Women with thrombophilias have been shown to have abnormalities of the placenta resulting in adverse pregnancy outcome in these patients. The purpose of the present study was to evaluate whether women with pregnancy complications and inherited thrombophilias have abnormally elevated second-trimester MSAFP or βhCG. Sixty-two women with pregnancy complications were tested for inherited thrombophilias several months after delivery. The thrombophilia group included 29 women with pregnancy complications and an inherited thrombophilia and the control group included 33 other patients without thrombophilia. Patients in the thrombophilia group had a higher median MoM MSAFP compared to the controls (1.337 vs 1.086, p=0.0516). The incidence of abnormally elevated MSAFP (>2.5 MoM) was also significantly higher in the thrombophilia group compared to controls (21% vs 3%, p=0.04). Neither the median MoM βhCG nor the incidence of abnormally elevated βhCG were significantly different between the groups. We conclude that second trimester MSAFP, but not βhCG, is abnormally elevated in patients with thrombophilia and obstetric complications. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.