Misuse of null hypothesis significance testing: would estimation of positive and negative predictive values improve certainty of chemical risk assessment?

Although generally misunderstood, the p value is the probability of the test results or more extreme results given H₀ is true: it is not the probability of H₀ being true given the results. To obtain directly useful insight about H₀, the positive predictive value (PPV) and the negative predictive value (NPV) may be useful extensions of null hypothesis significance testing (NHST). They provide information about the probability of statistically significant and non-significant test outcomes being true based on an a priori defined biologically meaningful effect size. The present study explores the utility of PPV and NPV in an ecotoxicological context by using the frequently applied Daphnia magna reproduction test (OECD guideline 211) and the chemical stressor lindane as a model system. The results indicate that especially the NPV deviates meaningfully between a test design strictly following the guideline and an experimental procedure controlling for α and β at the level of 0.05. Consequently, PPV and NPV may be useful supplements to NHST that inform the researcher about the level of confidence warranted by both statistically significant and non-significant test results. This approach also reinforces the value of considering α, β, and a biologically meaningful effect size a priori.     

Science with Society in the Anthropocene

Interdisciplinary scientific knowledge is necessary but not sufficient when it comes to addressing sustainable transformations, as science increasingly has to deal with normative and value-related issues. A systems perspective on coupled human–environmental systems (HES) helps to address the inherent complexities. Additionally, a thorough interaction between science and society (i.e., transdisciplinarity = TD) is necessary, as sustainable transitions are sometimes contested and can cause conflicts. In order to navigate complexities regarding the delicate interaction of scientific research with societal decisions these processes must proceed in a structured and functional way. We thus propose HES-based TD processes to provide a basis for reorganizing science in coming decades.     

Insights into the dissolution and the three-dimensional structure of insensitive munitions formulations

Two compounds, 2,4-dinitroanisole (DNAN) and 3-nitro-1,2,4-triazol-5-one (NTO) are the main ingredients in a suite of explosive formulations that are being, or soon will be, fielded at military training ranges. We aim to understand the dissolution characteristics of DNAN and NTO and three insensitive muntions (IM) formulations that contain them. This information is needed to accurately predict the environmental fate of IM constituents, some of which may be toxic to people and the environment. We used Raman spectroscopy to identify the different constituents in the IM formulations and micro computed tomography to image their three-dimensional structure. These are the first three-dimensional images of detonated explosive particles.     

Development and field validation of an indicator to assess the relative mobility and risk of pesticides in the Lourens River catchment,South Africa

A GIS based pesticide risk indicator that integrates exposure variables (i.e. pesticide application, geographic, physicochemical and crop data) and toxicity endpoints (using species sensitivity distributions) was developed to estimate the Predicted Relative Exposure (PREX) and Predicted Relative Risk (PRRI) of applied pesticides to aquatic ecosystem health in the Lourens River catchment, Western Cape, South Africa. Samples were collected weekly at five sites from the beginning of the spraying season (October) till the beginning of the rainy season (April) and were semi quantitatively analysed for relevant pesticides applied according to the local farmers spraying programme. Monitoring data indicate that physicochemical data obtained from international databases are reliable indicators of pesticide behaviour in the Western Cape of South Africa. Sensitivity analysis identified K_OC as the most important parameter influencing predictions of pesticide loading derived from runoff. A comparison to monitoring data showed that the PREX successfully identified hotspot sites, gave a reasonable estimation of the relative contamination potential of different pesticides at a site and identified important routes of exposure (i.e. runoff or spray drift) of different pesticides at different sites. All pesticides detected during a monitored runoff event, were indicated as being more associated with runoff than spray drift by the PREX. The PRRI identified azinphos-methyl and chlorpyrifos as high risk pesticides towards the aquatic ecosystem. These results contribute to providing increased confidence in the use of risk indicator applications and, in particular, could lead to improved utilisation of limited resources for monitoring and management in resource constrained countries.     

Economics and Alternatives for Sulfur Removal from Coke Oven Gas

Two processes are currently being employed in North America for the desulfurization of coke oven gas, the Vacuum Carbonate System, and the Stretford System. A third, the Sulfi-ban Process, which was recently announced, now has several plants scheduled for construction. Overall operating requirements for each of these processes are considered in detail. Emphasis is placed on an identification of power and steam requirements, the types and amounts of solid and/or liquid waste streams produced together with methods for their treatment, and the net desulfurization efficiencies achieved by each process. Detailed estimates of capital and operating costs for desulfurization are considered, and equipment needs for environmental control requirements are discussed.     

Collection of Aerosol Particles by Electrostatic Droplet Spray Scrubbers

Theoretical calculations and experimental measurements show that the collection of small aerosol particles (0.05 to 5 micron diameter range) by water droplets in spray scrubbers can be substantially increased by electrostatically charging the droplets and particles to opposite polarity. Measurements with a 140 acfm two chamber spray scrubber (7 seconds gas residence time) showed an increase in the overall particle collection efficiency from 68.8% tit uncharged conditions to 93.6% at charged conditions, with a dioctyl phthalate aerosol (1.05 μm particle mass mean diameter and 2.59 geometric standard deviation). The collection efficiency for 0.3 μm particles increased from 35 to 87% when charged. During 1973–1974 a 1000 acfm pilot plant electrostatic scrubber was constructed inside a 40 ft trailer for evaluation on controlling particu-late emissions from pulp mill operations (funded by Northwest Pulp and Paper Association). Field tests performed on the particle emissions exhausting from SO₂ absorption towers treating the gases from a magnesium based sulfite recovery boiler have shown particle collection efficiencies ranging from about 60 to 99% by weight, depending on the electrostatic scrubber operating conditions. Energy requirements for the University of Washington electrostatic scrubber are about 0.5 hp/1000 acfm (350 Watts/1000 acfm) including gas pressure drop, water pressure drop, and electrostatic charging of the water spray droplets and the particles.     

Cooling Towers and the Environment

Measurements of natural draft cooling tower plume behavior, as well as meteorological variables, were obtained from aircraft flights near major power plants of the American Electric Power System. Persistence of the visible plume to great distances depends essentially on ambient humidity. Atmospheric stability at plume elevation was also important. Cooling tower-induced fog at ground-level was never observed in any of the tests, and aerodynamic downwash of the visible plume was absent also. The cooling towers did cause modification of natural clouds and they occasionally shadowed some local areas from the sun. Merging of the stack and cooling tower plumes was a common occurrence.     

Characterization of Particulates from Power Plants

The emphasis on participate control from industrial processes has been shifted recently towards fine particulates, having diameters less than 3 microns. There exists an urgent need for more scientific information of fine particle characterization.^1,2 Coal and oil fired power plants are among the largest anthropogenic point sources of particulate matter.³ Limited knowledge is available on particle size distribution and trace metal composition in power plant emissions.^4-7 The morphological properties of particle emissions have been largely neglected. In this report we present some information on particle characteristics for an oil-fired and coal-fired power plant.     

Theory for Penetration in A Pulse-Jet Cleaned Fabric Filter

Presently, there is no effective way to interpret or predict dust penetration through a pulse-jet cleaned fabric filter. This paper presents a model which considers penetration straight through the filter and penetration by seepage. A considerable number of studies have been devoted to penetration by the straight through process; however, a comparison of data from the literature with the present model indicates that seepage and not straight through penetration accounts for virtually all penetrating dust. Although insufficient information is presently available to use the model to predict penetration, the model does show trends that should occur with changes in filter operating variables such as filtration velocity and pulse pressure, and suggests areas in which further research is necessary.