The ‘Bayesics’ of Ranked Set Sampling

Ranked set sampling can be useful when measurements are expensive but units from the popu- lation can be easily ranked. In this situation one may draw k units from the population, rank them, select one on which to make the expensive measurement, draw another k units, rank them, select one, and so on. The method was originally suggested by McIntyre (1952) in connection with pasture yields and is obviously applicable in other situations as well. Dell and Clutter (1972) and Patil et al. (1994) explain the basics from a classical point of view. Our aim is to examine the procedure from a Bayesian point of view, determine whether ranked set sampling provides advantages over simple random sampling and explore some optimality questions     

Book reviews

Earth Politics. Ernst Ulrich von Weizsacker, 1994, London, Zed Books, 234 pp. ISBN 1 85649 174 9, pb £14.95; hb £36.95

Greening Your Local Authority. Janice Morphet (Ed.), 1994, London, Pitman Publishing (originally Harlow, Longman), 144 pp. ISBN 0582 229 065, pb £32.50

Ecology and Society: an introduction. Luke Martell, 1994 London, Polity Press, 250 pp. ISBN 0 7456 1022 6, hb £39.50, ISBN 0 7456 1023 4, pb £11.95

The Politics of the Environment. Robert E. Goodin, 1994. Cheltenham, Edward Elgar, 599 pp. ISBN 1 85278 872 0, hb £115.00

Introduction to Environmental Impact Assessment John Glasson, Riki Therivel & Andrew Chadwick, 1994, London, UCL Press, 352 pp. ISBN 1 85728 117 9, hb £45.00, ISBN 1 85728 118 7, pb £14.95

Planning for the Planet: sustainable development strategies for local and strategic plans. Friends of the Earth, 1994, London, FoE, 104 pp. ISBN 1 85750 224 8, £12.00

Environmental Strategy and Sustainable Development: the corporate challenge for the 21st century. Richard Welford, 1995, London, Routledge, 240 pp. ISBN 0 415 10551 X, hb £40.00, ISBN 0 415 10552 8, pb £12.99

Housing and the Environment: a new agenda. Mark Bhatti, Jane Brooke & Mike Gibson (Eds), 1994, Foreword by Jonathon Porritt, Coventry, Chartered Institute of Housing, 210 pp. ISBN 0 901 607 738, £14.95     

Hydrocarbon Measurements During the 1992 Southern Oxidants Study Atlanta Intensive: Protocol and Quality Assurance

Abstract

A major component of the Southern Oxidants Study (SOS) 1992 Atlanta Intensive was the measurement of atmospheric nonmethane hydrocarbons. Ambient air samples were collected and analyzed by a network of strategically located automated gas chromatography (GC) systems (field systems). In addition, an extensive canister sampling network was deployed. Combined, more than 3000 chromatograms were recorded. The SOS science team targeted for quantitative analysis 56 compounds which may be substantial contributors to ozone formation or used as air mass tracers. A quality assurance program was instituted to ensure that good measurements were being made throughout the network for each target compound. Common, high-quality standards were used throughout the network. The performance of individual field systems was evaluated during the intensive through the analysis of challenge mixtures. This methodology helped to identify and correct analytical problems as they arose.     

Lay concepts on CCS deployment in Switzerland based on qualitative interviews

Laypeople's acceptance and perception of Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage (CCS) can have an influence on its political feasibility. It is important, therefore, to study how laypeople perceive CCS and which cognitions they hold with respect to this technique. We conducted in-depth interviews with laypeople (N = 16) to explore their mental concepts of CCS. Little knowledge about CCS was detected among laypeople. We also found that laypeople fear that a deployment of CCS could create incentives that would hinder a sustainable development of the energy economy. A misunderstanding of the concepts of hydro- and geostatic pressure, as well as a lack of knowledge about the physical–chemical properties of carbon dioxide seemed to trigger fundamental rejection of CCS among some laypeople. This qualitative study identifies concepts that underlie CCS perception, and these should be objects of future studies. We provide some suggestions for risk management and communication about CCS.     

Diversity, Seasonality, and Context of Mammalian Roadkills in the Southern Great Plains

Thousands of mammals are killed annually from vehicle collisions, making the issue an important one for conservation biologists and environmental managers. We recorded all readily identifiable kills on or immediately adjacent to roads in the southern Great Plains from March 2004–March 2007. We also recorded distance traveled, whether a road was paved or divided, the number of lanes, and prevailing habitat. Surveys were opportunistic and were conducted by car during conditions of good visibility. Over our 239 surveys and >16,500 km traveled, we recorded 1412 roadkills from 18 different mammal species (size ranged from Sciurus squirrels to the white-tailed deer, Odocolieus virginianus). The overall kill rate was 8.50 / 100 km. Four species were prone to collisions: the Virginia opossum (Didelphis virginiana), nine-banded armadillo (Dasypus novemcinctus), striped skunk (Mephitis mephitis), and northern raccoon (Procyon lotor). Together they accounted for approximately 85% (1198) of all roadkills. Mortality rate differed significantly between 2- and 4-lane roads (8.39 versus 7.79 / 100 km). Kill rates were significantly higher on paved versus unpaved roads (8.60 versus 3.65 / 100 km), but did not depend on whether a road was divided. Roadkills were higher in spring than in fall (1.5×), winter (1.4×), or summer (1.3×). The spring peak (in kills / 100 km) was driven chiefly by the armadillo (2.76 in spring/summer versus 0.73 in autumn/winter) and opossum (2.65 versus 1.47). By contrast, seasonality was dampened by a late winter/early spring peak in skunk mortalities, for which 41% occurred in the 6-week period of mid-February through March. The raccoon did not exhibit a strong seasonal pattern. Our data are consistent with dispersal patterns of these species. Our results underscore the high rate of highway mortality in the southern plains, as well as differences in seasonality and road type that contribute to mortality. Conservation and management efforts should focus on creating underpasses or using other means to reduce roadkill rates.     

Using Ecological Footprints as a Policy Driver: The Case of Sustainable Construction Planning Policy in London

The heuristic value of the ecological footprint (EF) conceptual device has met with considerable political and civic buy-in at national, regional and local levels. It is seen as particularly valuable for visualizing ecological overshoot but debates about methodological soundness have undermined this potential. This paper examines the emerging opportunities for advanced footprinting approaches that use input-output analysis to test 'what if?' policy scenarios and hence turn EF into a proactive driver for sustainability-oriented policy development. It focuses on the London case and the specific arena of planning policy for sustainable construction.     

Determining Sources of Fecal Bacteria in Waterways

The microbiological contamination of waterways by pathogenic microbes has been, and is still, a persistent public safety concern in the United States and in most countries of the world. As most enteric pathogens are transmitted through the fecal–oral route, fecal pollution is generally regarded as the major contributor of pathogens to waterways. Fecal pollution of waterways can originate from wastewater treatment facilities, septic tanks, domestic- and wild-animal feces, and pets. Because enteric pathogens are derived from human or animal sources, techniques capable of identifying and apportioning fecal sources have been intensively investigated for use in remediation efforts and to satisfy regulatory concerns. Pollution of human origin is of the most concern, since human feces is more likely to contain human-specific enteric pathogens. Fecal indicator bacteria have been used successfully as the primary tool for microbiologically based risk assessment. However measurement of fecal indicator bacteria does not define what pathogens are present, or define the sources of these bacteria. Microbial source tracking (MST) methods that have the ability to differentiate among sources of fecal pollution are currently under development. These methods will ultimately be useful for risk assessment purposes and to aid regulatory agencies in developing strategies to remediate microbiologically impaired waterways.     

Comparison and Evaluation of Gridded Precipitation Datasets in a Kansas Agricultural Watershed Using SWAT

Gridded precipitation datasets are becoming a convenient substitute for gauge measurements in hydrological modeling; however, these data have not been fully evaluated across a range of conditions. We compared four gridded datasets (Daily Surface Weather and Climatological Summaries [DAYMET], North American Land Data Assimilation System [NLDAS], Global Land Data Assimilation System [GLDAS], and Parameter‐elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model [PRISM]) as precipitation data sources and evaluated how they affected hydrologic model performance when compared with a gauged dataset, Global Historical Climatology Network‐Daily (GHCN‐D). Analyses were performed for the Delaware Watershed at Perry Lake in eastern Kansas. Precipitation indices for DAYMET and PRISM precipitation closely matched GHCN‐D, whereas NLDAS and GLDAS showed weaker correlations. We also used these precipitation data as input to the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model that confirmed similar trends in streamflow simulation. For stations with complete data, GHCN‐D based SWAT‐simulated streamflow variability better than gridded precipitation data. During low flow periods we found PRISM performed better, whereas both DAYMET and NLDAS performed better in high flow years. Our results demonstrate that combining gridded precipitation sources with gauge‐based measurements can improve hydrologic model performance, especially for extreme events.     

Source contributions to the mutagenicity of urban particulate air pollution

Using organic compounds as tracers, a chemical mass balance model was employed to investigate the relationship between the mutagenicity of the urban organic aerosol sources and the mutagenicity of the atmospheric samples. The fine particle organic mass concentration present in the 1993 annual average Los Angeles-area composite sample was apportioned among eight emission source types. The largest source contributions to fine particulate organic compound mass concentration were identified as smoke from meat cooking, diesel-powered vehicle exhaust, wood smoke, and paved road dust. However, the largest source contributions to the mutagenicity of the atmospheric sample were natural gas combustion and diesel-powered vehicles. In both the human cell and bacterial assay systems, the combined mutagenicity of the composite of primary source effluents predicted to be present in the atmosphere was statistically indistinguishable from the mutagenicity of the actual atmospheric sample composite. Known primary emissions sources appear to be capable of emitting mutagenic organic matter to the urban atmosphere in amounts sufficient to account for the observed mutagenicity of the ambient samples. The error bounds on this analysis, however, are wide enough to admit to the possible importance of additional mutagenic organics that are formed by atmospheric reaction (e.g., 2-nitrofluoranthene has been identified as an important human cell mutagen in the atmospheric composite studied here, accounting for approximately 1% of the total sample mutagenic potency).     

The effects of temperature and salinity on reproductive success of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Temora longicornis</Emphasis> in the Baltic Sea: a copepod coping with a tough situation

At specific locations within the Baltic Sea, thermoclines and haloclines can create rapid spatial and temporal changes in temperature (T) and salinity (S) exceeding 10°C and 9 psu with seasonal ranges in temperature exceeding 20°C. These wide ranges in abiotic factors affect the distribution and abundance of Baltic Sea copepods via species-specific, physiological-based impacts on vital rates. In this laboratory study, we characterized the influence of T and S on aspects of reproductive success and naupliar survival of a southwestern Baltic population of Temora longicornis (Copepoda: Calanoida). First, using ad libitum feeding conditions, we measured egg production (EP, no. of eggs female⁻¹ day⁻¹) at 12 different temperatures between 2.5 and 24°C, observing the highest mean EP at 16.9°C (12 eggs female⁻¹ day⁻¹). Next, the effect of S on EP and hatching success (HS, %) was quantified at 12°C for cohorts that had been acclimated to either 8, 14, 20 or 26 psu and tested at each of five salinities (8, 14, 20, 26 and 32 psu). The mean EP was highest for (and maximum EP similar among) 14, 20 and 26 psu cohorts when tested at their acclimation salinity whereas EP was lower at other salinities. For adults reared at 8 psu, a commonly encountered salinity in Baltic surface waters, EP was relatively low at all test salinities—a pattern indicative of osmotic stress. When incubated at 12°C and 15 different salinities between 0 and 34 psu, HS increased asymptotically with increasing S and was maximal (82.6–84.3%) between 24 and 26 psu. However, HS did depend upon the adult acclimation salinity. Finally, the 48-h survival of nauplii hatched and reared at 14 psu at one of six different temperatures (10, 12, 14, 16, 18 and 20°C) was measured after exposure to a novel salinity (either 7 or 20 psu). Upon exposure to 7 psu, 48-h naupliar mortality increased with increasing temperature, ranging from 26.7% at 10°C to 63.2% at 20°C. In contrast, after exposure to 20 psu, mortality was relatively low at all temperatures (1.7% at 10°C and ≤26.7% for all other temperatures). An intra-specific comparison of EP for three different T. longicornis populations revealed markedly different temperature optima and clearly demonstrated the negative impact of brackish (Baltic) salinities. Our results provide estimates of reproductive success and early survival of T. longicornis to the wide ranges of temperatures and salinities that will aid ongoing biophysical modeling examining climate impacts on this species within the Baltic Sea.