A robust simulation–optimization modeling system for effluent trading—a case study of nonpoint source pollution control

In this study, a robust simulation–optimization modeling system (RSOMS) is developed for supporting agricultural nonpoint source (NPS) effluent trading planning. The RSOMS can enhance effluent trading through incorporation of a distributed simulation model and an optimization model within its framework. The modeling system not only can handle uncertainties expressed as probability density functions and interval values but also deal with the variability of the second-stage costs that are above the expected level as well as capture the notion of risk under high-variability situations. A case study is conducted for mitigating agricultural NPS pollution with an effluent trading program in Xiangxi watershed. Compared with non-trading policy, trading scheme can successfully mitigate agricultural NPS pollution with an increased system benefit. Through trading scheme, [213.7, 288.8]?×?10³ kg of TN and [11.8, 30.2]?×?10³ kg of TP emissions from cropped area can be cut down during the planning horizon. The results can help identify desired effluent trading schemes for water quality management with the tradeoff between the system benefit and reliability being balanced and risk aversion being considered.     

Annual and weekly patterns of ozone and particulate matter in Jeddah,Saudi Arabia

Air pollution has been an increasing concern within the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern countries. In this work the authors present an analysis of daily ozone (O₃), nitrogen oxide (NO_x), and particulate matter (<10 μm aerodynamic diameter; PM₁₀) concentrations for two years (2010 and 2011) at sites in and around the coastal city of Jeddah, as well as a remote background site for comparison. Monthly and weekly variations, along with their implications and consequences, were also examined. O₃ within Jeddah was remarkably low, and exhibited the so-called weekend effect—elevated O₃ levels on the weekends, despite reduced emissions of O₃ precursors on those days. Weekend O₃ increases averaged between 12% and 14% in the city, suggesting that NO_x/volatile organic compound (VOC) ratios within cities such as Jeddah may be exceptionally high. Sites upwind or far removed from Jeddah did not display this weekend effect. Based on these results, emission control strategies in and around Jeddah must carefully address NO_x/VOC ratios so as to reduce O₃ at downwind locations without increasing it within urban locations themselves. PM₁₀ concentrations within Jeddah were elevated compared with North American cites of similar climatology, though comparable to other large cities within the Middle East.

Implications:Daily concentrations of O₃, PM₁₀, and NO_x in and around the city of Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, are analyzed and compared with those of other reference cities. Extremely low O₃ levels, along with a significant urban weekend effect (higher weekend O₃, despite reduced NO_x concentrations), is apparent, along with high levels of PM₁₀ within the city. Urban O₃ in Jeddah was found to be lower than that of other comparable cities, but the strong weekend effect suggests that care must be taken to reduce downwind O₃ levels without increasing them within the city itself. Further research into the emissions and chemistry contributing to the reduced O₃ levels within the city is warranted.     

Comparative statistical study of hourly precipitation determined by radar-based Stage IV and ground-based methods in the North Central United States

Detailed hourly precipitation data are required for long-range modeling of dispersion and wet deposition of particulate matter and water-soluble pollutants using the CALPUFF model. In sparsely populated areas such as the north central United States, ground-based precipitation measurement stations may be too widely spaced to offer a complete and accurate spatial representation of hourly precipitation within a modeling domain. The availability of remotely sensed precipitation data by satellite and the National Weather Service array of next-generation radars (NEXRAD) deployed nationally provide an opportunity to improve on the paucity of data for these areas. Before adopting a new method of precipitation estimation in a modeling protocol, it should be compared with the ground-based precipitation measurements, which are currently relied upon for modeling purposes. This paper presents a statistical comparison between hourly precipitation measurements for the years 2006 through 2008 at 25 ground-based stations in the north central United States and radar-based precipitation measurements available from the National Center for Environmental Predictions (NCEP) as Stage IV data at the nearest grid cell to each selected precipitation station. It was found that the statistical agreement between the two methods depends strongly on whether the ground-based hourly precipitation is measured to within 0.1 in/hr or to within 0.01 in/hr. The results of the statistical comparison indicate that it would be more accurate to use gridded Stage IV precipitation data in a gridded dispersion model for a long-range simulation, than to rely on precipitation data interpolated between widely scattered rain gauges.

Implications:

The current reliance on ground-based rain gauges for precipitation events and hourly data for modeling of dispersion and wet deposition of particulate matter and water-soluble pollutants results in potentially large discontinuity in data coverage and the need to extrapolate data between monitoring stations. The use of radar-based precipitation data, which is available for the entire continental United States and nearby areas, would resolve these data gaps and provide a complete and accurate spatial representation of hourly precipitation within a large modeling domain.     

Gold Mining: Is It Worth Its Weight?

Gold (Au) accounts for only 0.004 g/ton of the earth's crust and is the most desired element. With an average annual world production of approximately 2,500 tons, the current methods of Au mining in developing countries cause major environmental issues. These issues vary from deforestation to cyanide and mercury (Hg) contamination. This article presents several cases of environmental catastrophes caused by Au mining in different regions of the world (Africa, the Middle East, Eastern Europe, and South America). It discusses the currently available processes for the large-scale extraction of metallic Au grains and supports the need for an alternative sustainable process.     

Teleconnections,midlatitude cyclones and Aegean Sea turbulent heat flux variability on daily through decadal time scales

We analyze daily wintertime cyclone variability in the central and eastern Mediterranean during 1958–2001 and identify four distinct “cyclone states,” corresponding to the presence or absence of cyclones in each basin. Each cyclone state is associated with wind flows that induce characteristic patterns of cooling via turbulent (sensible and latent) heat fluxes in the eastern Mediterranean basin and Aegean Sea. The relative frequency of occurrence of each state determines the heat loss from the Aegean Sea during that winter, with largest heat losses occurring when there is a storm in the eastern but not central Mediterranean (eNOTc) and the smallest occurring when there is a storm in the central but not eastern Mediterranean (cNOTe). Time series of daily cyclone states for each winter allow us to infer Aegean Sea cooling for winters prior to 1985, the earliest year for which we have daily heat flux observations. We show that cyclone states conducive to Aegean Sea convection occurred in 1991/1992 and 1992/1993, the winters during which deepwater formation was observed in the Aegean Sea, and also during the mid-1970s and the winters of 1963/1964 and 1968/1969. We find that the eNOTc cyclone state is anticorrelated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) prior to 1977/1978. After 1977/1978, the cNOTe state is anticorrelated with both the NAO and the North Caspian Pattern, showing that the area of influence of large-scale atmospheric teleconnections on regional cyclone activity shifted from the eastern to the central Mediterranean during the late 1970s. A trend toward more frequent occurrence of the positive phase of the NAO produced less frequent cNOTe states since the late 1970s, increasing the number of days with strong cooling of the Aegean Sea surface waters.     

Multi-GCM projections of future drought and climate variability indicators for the Mediterranean region

Future climate conditions for the Mediterranean region based on an ensemble of 16 Global Climate Models are expressed and mapped using three approaches, giving special attention to the intermodel uncertainty. (1) The scenarios of mean seasonal temperature and precipitation agree with the projections published previously by other authors. The results show an increase in temperature in all seasons and for all parts of the Mediterranean with good intermodel agreement. Precipitation is projected to decrease in all parts and all seasons (most significantly in summer) except for the northernmost parts in winter. The intermodel agreement for the precipitation changes is lower than for temperature. (2) Changes in drought conditions are represented using the Palmer Drought Severity Index and its intermediate Z-index product. The results indicate a significant decrease in soil moisture in all seasons, with the most significant decrease occurring in summer. The displayed changes exhibit high intermodel agreement. (3) The climate change scenarios are defined in terms of the changes in parameters of the stochastic daily weather generator calibrated with the modeled daily data; the emphasis is put on the parameters, which affect the diurnal and interdiurnal variability in weather series. These scenarios indicate a trend toward more extreme weather in the Mediterranean. Temperature maxima will increase not only because of an overall rise in temperature means, but partly (in some areas) because of increases in temperature variability and daily temperature range. Increased mean daily precipitation sums on wet days occurring in some seasons, and some parts of the Mediterranean may imply higher daily precipitation extremes, and decreased probability of wet day occurrence will imply longer drought spells all across the Mediterranean.     

Looking beyond the average agricultural impacts in defining adaptation needs in Europe

The effects of climate change on agriculture are often characterised by changes in the average productivity of crops; however, these indicators provide limited information regarding the risks associated with fluctuations in productivity resulting from future changes in climate variability that may also affect agriculture. In this context, this study evaluates the combined effects of the risks associated with anomalies reflected by changes in the mean crop yield and the variability of productivity in European agro-climatic regions under future climate change scenarios. The objective of this study is to evaluate adaptation needs and to identify regional effects that should be addressed with greater urgency in the light of the risks and opportunities that are identified. The results show differential effects on regional agriculture and highlight the importance of considering both regional average impacts and the variability in crop productivity in setting priorities for the adaptation and maintenance of rural incomes and agricultural insurance programmes.     

Revisions to the derivation of the Australian and New Zealand guidelines for toxicants in fresh and marine waters

The Australian and New Zealand Guidelines for Fresh and Marine Water Quality are a key document in the Australian National Water Quality Management Strategy. These guidelines released in 2000 are currently being reviewed and updated. The revision is being co-ordinated by the Australian Department of Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities, while technical matters are dealt with by a series of Working Groups. The revision will be evolutionary in nature reflecting the latest scientific developments and a range of stakeholder desires. Key changes will be: increasing the types and sources of data that can be used; working collaboratively with industry to permit the use of commercial-in-confidence data; increasing the minimum data requirements; including a measure of the uncertainty of the trigger value; improving the software used to calculate trigger values; increasing the rigour of site-specific trigger values; improving the method for assessing the reliability of the trigger values; and providing guidance of measures of toxicity and toxicological endpoints that may, in the near future, be appropriate for trigger value derivation. These changes will markedly improve the number and quality of the trigger values that can be derived and will increase end-users’ ability to understand and implement the guidelines in a scientifically rigorous manner.     

Development of aquatic life criteria in China: viewpoint on the challenge

While more developed countries have a well-established systems to develop water quality criteria (WQC), little research has been done on the adequacy of the current WQC to protect endemic species of China. In order to maintain the health of aquatic ecosystems in China, a series of projects to establish national WQC based on regional characteristics has recently been initiated. However, the establishment of a completely novel methodology would be costly and time consuming. Also, due to the similarities in physiologies and natural histories of classes of aquatic organisms, there is no reason to believe that WQC would not be sufficient to protect unique species in China. This review was undertaken to identify key outstanding issues regarding establishment of aquatic life criteria (ALC) to be applied in China, including prioritization of chemicals, test species, mode of action, field/semi-field data, and methods of aggregating the information and calculating the ALC. This was used to identify the principle issues that need to be addressed in order to better understand the methods for development of criteria for the protection of aquatic life and provide a reference to China and other developing countries committed to the establishment of their own WQC system.     

The integrated biomarker response revisited: optimization to avoid misuse

The growing need to evaluate the quality of aquatic ecosystems led to the development of numerous monitoring tools. Among them, the development of biomarker-based procedures, that combine precocity and relevance, is recommended. However, multi-biomarker approaches are often hard to interpret, and produce results that are not easy to integrate in the environmental policies framework. Integrative index have been developed, and one of the most used is the integrated biomarker response (IBR). However, an analysis of available literature demonstrated that the IBR suffers from a frequent misuse and a bias in its calculation. Then, we propose here a new calculation method based on both a more simple formula and a permutation procedure. Together, these improvements should rightly avoid the misuse and bias that were recorded. Additionally, a case study illustrates how the new procedure enabled to perform a reliable classification of site along a pollution gradient based on biomarker responses used in the IBR calculations.