Influence of Methodology and Assumptions on Reported National Carbon Flux Inventories: An Illustration from the Canadian Forest Sector

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has developed guidelines to standardize the international reporting of greenhouse gas emissions and removals by signatory nations of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. With regard to forest sector carbon fluxes, the IPCC guidelines require only that those fluxes directly associated with human activities (i.e., harvesting and land-use change) be reported. In Canada, the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS2) has been used to assess carbon fluxes from the entire forest sector. This model accounts for carbon fluxes associated with both anthropogenic and natural disturbances, such as wild fires and insects. We combined model results for the period 1985 to 1989 with additional data to compile seven different national carbon flux inventories for the forest sector. These inventories incorporate different system components under a variety of seemingly plausible assumptions, some of which are encouraged refinements to the default flux inventory described in the IPCC guidelines. The resulting estimated net carbon fluxes varied from a net removal of 185,000 kt carbon per year of the inventory period to a netemission of 89,000 kt carbon per year. Following the default procedures in the IPCC guidelines, while using the best available national data, produced an inventory with a net removal of atmospheric carbon. Adding the effect of natural disturbances to that inventory reversed the sign of the net flux resulting in a substantial emission. Including the carbon fluxes associated with root biomass in the first inventory increased the magnitude of the estimated net removal. The variability of these results emphasizes the need for a systems approach in constructing a flux inventory. We argue that the choice of which fluxes to include in the inventory should be based on the importance of these fluxes to the overall carbon budget and not on the perceived ease with which flux estimates can be obtained. The results of this analysis also illustrate two specific points. Even those Canadian forests which are most free from direct human interactions—forests in which no commercial harvesting occurs—are not in equilibrium, and their contribution to national carbon fluxes should be included in the reported flux inventory. Moreover, those forest areas that are subject to direct management are still substantially impacted by natural disturbances. The critical effect of inventory methodology and assumptions on inventory results has important ramifications for efforts to “monitor” and “verify” programs aimed at mitigating global carbon emissions.     

Prenatal diagnosis in two cases of de novo complex balanced chromosomal rearrangements. Three-year follow-up in one case

We report two cases of apparently balanced complex de novo chromosomal rearrangements (BCCR) detected prenatally at 17 weeks and 10 weeks of gestation, respectively. Chromosomes were studied using GTG-banding and fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH). In one case four chromosomes and in the other case three chromosomes were involved in the rearrangements. One of the pregnancies was terminated and no external or internal abnormalities were detected at autopsy. The other pregnancy continued to term. Level III ultrasound examination showed no abnormalities. The child is now 3 years old and has neither congenital anomalies nor evidence of delayed psychomotor development.     

Renatal diagnosis of mosaic tetrasomy 12p/trisomy 12p by fluorescent in situ hybridization in amniotic fluid cells: A case report of pallister–killian syndrome

A prenatally detected case of a rare mosaic tetrasomy 12p/trisomy 12p is reported, presenting as the well-known accessory isochromosome 12p and a supernumerary single 12p marker in 17/24 and 6/24 clones of cultured amniotic fluid cells, respectively. The chromosomal nature of both marker chromosomes was investigated in cultured amniotic fluid cells by fluorescent in situ hybridization with various probes: the 12-centromeric probes pa12H8 and D12Z3, a whole chromosome 12 paint, and the chromosome 12p-specific paint M28. DNA analysis revealed a maternal origin of the extra 12p material. After counselling, the parents requested termination of pregnancy. Inspection and autopsy of the fetus revealed many of the dysmorphisms and internal structural abnormalities of the Pallister–Killian syndrome.     

Second-trimester cancer antigen 125 and Down's syndrome

This study explores if assay of cancer antigen 125 (CA 125) in maternal serum might aid the detection of Down's syndrome in the second trimester of pregnancy. CA 125 levels were determined retrospectively in stored maternal serum samples from ten Down's syndrome pregnancies and 78 controls matched for gestational and maternal age. In addition, second-trimester amniotic fluid samples from nine Down's syndrome and 109 unaffected pregnancies were analysed for CA 125. Maternal serum CA 125 values for Down's syndrome pregnancies were lower, with the median being 0.72 multiples of the unaffected population median. The medians for affected and unaffected pregnancies did not differ significantly and there was a considerable overlap in the range of values of cases and controls. The distribution of amniotic fluid CA 125 levels for Down's syndrome pregnancies resembled that for controls. From our present results, we could not find an association between Down's syndrome and second-trimester maternal serum or amniotic fluid CA 125 levels.     

The effect of metapleural gland secretion on the growth of a mutualistic bacterium on the cuticle of leaf-cutting ants

In Acromyrmex octospinosus leaf-cutting ants the metapleural glands produce an array of antibiotic compounds that serve as a general defence against unwanted microbes on the cuticle. Leaf-cutting ants also grow mutualistic Pseudonocardiaceae bacteria on their cuticle that produce antibiotics controlling a microfungal parasite of their fungus gardens. Interaction between this bacterium and gland secretion therefore seems unavoidable. We document the typical development of bacterial growth on the cuticle of young major workers, show that growth starts a few days after eclosion, and that the maximal cover is reached after 2–3 weeks and gradually declines when workers mature. Experimental closure of the metapleural glands had no effect on the initial exponential growth phase of the bacterium, but significantly reduced the cover during the decline phase. The age-dependent abundance of the bacterium and its partial dependence on metapleural gland secretion support the hypothesis that the abundance of this mutualist is actively regulated.     

Carbon Budget Implications of the Transition from Natural to Managed Disturbance Regimes in Forest Landscapes

Land-use change from an unmanaged to a managed forested landscape in northern forests is associated with a reduction of the area annually affected by natural disturbances (wildfires and forest insects) and the introduction of harvesting as a new disturbance. This study examined the impacts of changes in the disturbance regime-the frequency and type of disturbance-on landscape-level carbon (C) content and fluxes. The Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector was used to assess these impacts in six representative landscapes (100,000 ha each) with a range of disturbance regimes that are characteristic of conditions in coastal British Columbia, the interior of British Columbia, and the eastern boreal forest in Canada. The model was used to simulate ecosystem C fluxes during a period of natural disturbances, a 50-year transition period during which harvesting replaced natural disturbances, followed by 150 years of harvesting. The initial landscape-level biomass C content under natural disturbance regimes in the six example landscapes was 22 to 75% of their potential maximum content which is often used as the reference or baseline case. After 200 years of forest management, the C stored in the landscape plus the C retained in forest products manufactured from harvested biomass was between 58 and 101% of the landscape C content prior to the onset of harvesting. Landscape-level ecosystem C content was found to be affected by changes in the disturbance frequency, the age-dependence of the disturbance probabilities, and the disturbance-specific impacts on ecosystem C content. The results indicate that using the potential maximum C content of a landscape as the baseline always overestimates the actual C release due to land use change. A more meaningful procedure would be to assess the actual differences in landscape-level C content between the natural and the managed disturbance regime.     

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