Nonparametric spatial regression of survival probability: visualization of population sinks in Eurasian woodcock

Both evolutionary ecologists and wildlife managers make inference based on how fitness and demography vary in space. Spatial variation in survival can be difficult to assess in the wild because (1) multisite study designs are not well suited to populations that are continuously distributed across a large area and (2) available statistical models accounting for detectability less than 1.0 do not easily cope with geographical coordinates. Here we use penalized splines within a Bayesian state-space modeling framework to estimate and visualize survival probability in two dimensions. The approach is flexible in that no parametric form for the relationship between survival and coordinates need be specified a priori. To illustrate our method, we study a game species, the Eurasian Woodcock Scolopax rusticola, based on band recovery data (5000 individuals) collected over a > 50 000-km2 area in west-central France with contrasted habitats and hunting pressures. We find that spatial variation in survival probability matches an index of hunting pressure and creates a mosaic of population sources and sinks. Such analyses could provide guidance concerning the spatial management of hunting intensity or could be used to identify pathways of spatial variation in fitness, for example, to study adaptation to changing landscape and climate.     

Would hotelling kill the electric car?

In this paper, we show that the potential for endogenous technological change in alternative energy sources may alter the behaviour of resource-owning firms. When technological progress in an alternative energy source can occur through learning-by-doing, resource owners face competing incentives to extract rents from the resource and to prevent expansion of the new technology. We show that in such a context, it is not necessarily the case that scarcity-driven higher traditional energy prices over time will induce alternative energy supply as resources are exhausted. Rather, we show that as we increase the learning potential in the substitute technology, lower equilibrium energy prices prevail and there may be increased resource extraction and greenhouse gas emissions. We show that the effectiveness and the incidence of emissions reduction policies may be altered by increased potential for technological change. Our results suggest that treating finite resource rents as endogenous consequences of both technological progress and policy changes will be important for the accurate assessment of climate change policy.     

A model for intraguild predation dynamics between immature stages

Dynamical models usually assume that predation occurs between mature stages and/or between mature and immature stages. In this work a stage-structured discrete time model is developed for a system where intraguild predation takes place only in the course of immature stages of predator and its prey. Therefore, the proposed mathematical setup demands functional relations linking predation in immature life stages with survival and fecundity in mature stages. The behavior of the model is examined in order to investigate the interplay among predator attack rate, its satiation of prey consumption and the success of intraguild predator invasion.     

Escape migration decisions in Eurasian Woodcocks: insights from survival analyses using large-scale recovery data

During unpredictable adverse conditions, endotherms can engage in emergency behaviors (movement, torpor, hyperphagia) to maintain energy balance and reduce mortality hazards. Bird “escape migration” is one of the most visible of these behaviors. In this study, we focus on a Eurasian Woodcock Scolopax rusticola population. Seasonal migrations bring this population from its breeding grounds in Eastern and Northern Europe to its wintering grounds in France. A varying number of these birds are also regularly reported from Spain, supposedly during additional escape movements that occur in winter. Using models that account for the imperfect detection rate of individuals and a large (>44,000 individuals) dataset combining information from the wintering and breeding ranges, we show that severe winters significantly reduced survival probability, but that migration to Spain increased only during the most intense cold spell that occurred over the 20-year study period. This suggests that the decision to resume migration during the winter is submitted to a threshold mechanism, which we discuss in the light of current models of migratory behavior.     

Phytoplankton distribution during two contrasted summers in a Mediterranean harbour: combining automated submersible flow cytometry with conventional techniques

Present study was conducted in rapidly growing city Islamabad, and surface soils were collected from three major land cover types viz., built-up, drain side, and green areas. A total of seven physicochemical parameters and 11 metals were determined in surface soils. Factor analysis based on principal component analysis explained total variance of 68.0%, 64.5%, and 60.2% of three land cover types and showed high loadings for major elements (Mg and K) in built-up and green area and Fe in drain side. Top soil pollution index was carried out by using geo-accumulation index and metal pollution index (MPI₆). Concentration of major elements (Ca, Mg, Na, K) in surface soils is derived by parent material, whereas concentration of Fe, Ni, Pb, and Zn were mainly related with anthropogenic sources. Geostatistical methods such as kirging identified hotspot areas of metal contamination by Pb, Ni, and Zn in built-up areas influenced mainly by vehicular emissions and waste disposal. The results stresses that land clearing should be avoided to reduce contamination and management of urban soils.     

Accumulation of (137)Cs in Brazilian soils and its transfer to plants under different climatic conditions

The spatial distribution and behaviour of the global fallout (137)Cs in the tropical, subtropical and equatorial soil-plant systems were investigated at several upland sites in Brazil selected according to their climate characteristics, and to the agricultural importance. To determine the (137)Cs deposition density, undisturbed soil profiles were taken from 23 environments situated between the latitudes of 02 degrees N and 30 degrees S. Sampling sites located along to the equator exhibited (137)Cs deposition densities with an average value of 219Bqm(-2). Extremely low deposition densities of 1.3Bqm(-2) were found in the Amazon region. In contrast, the southern part of Brazil, located between latitudes of 20 degrees S and 34 degrees S, exhibited considerably higher deposition densities ranging from 140Bqm(-2) to 1620Bqm(-2). To examine the (137)Cs soil-to-plant transfer in the Brazilian agricultural products, 29 mainly tropical plant species, and corresponding soil samples were collected at 43 sampling locations in nine federal states of Brazil. Values of the (137)Cs concentration factor plant/soil exhibited a large range from 0.020 (beans) to 6.2 (cassava). Samples of some plant species originated from different collecting areas showed different concentration factors. The (137)Cs content of some plants collected was not measurable due to a very low (137)Cs concentration level found in the upper layers of the incremental soils. Globally, the soil-to-plant transfer of (137)Cs can be described by a logarithmic normal distribution with a geometric mean of 0.3 and a geometric standard deviation of 3.9.     

Insecticide resistance may enhance the response to a host-plant volatile kairomone for the codling moth, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Cydia pomonella</Emphasis> (L.)

The behavioral and electroantennographic responses of Cydia pomonella (L.) to the ripe pear volatile ethyl (2E,4Z)-2,4-decadienoate (Et-E,Z-DD), were compared in insecticide-susceptible and -resistant populations originating from southern France. A dose–response relationship to this kairomonal attractant was established for antennal activity and did not reveal differences between susceptible and resistant strains. Conversely, males of the laboratory strains expressing metabolic [cytochrome P450-dependent mixed-function oxidases (mfo)] or physiological (kdr-type mutation of the sodium-channel gene) resistance mechanisms exhibited a significantly higher response to Et-E,Z-DD than those of the susceptible strain in a wind tunnel experiment. No response of the females to this kairomone could be obtained in our wind-tunnel conditions. In apple orchards, mfo-resistant male moths were captured at significantly higher rates in kairomone-baited traps than in traps baited with the sex pheromone of C. pomonella. Such a differential phenomenon was not verified for the kdr-resistant insects, which exhibited a similar response to both the sex pheromone and the kairomonal attractant in apple orchards. Considering the widespread distribution of metabolic resistance in European populations of C. pomonella and the enhanced behavioral response to Et-E,Z-DD in resistant moths, the development of control measures based on this kairomonal compound would be of great interest for the management of insecticide resistance in this species.     

Numerical simulation of benzene transport in shoreline groundwater affected by tides under different conditions

● An approach for assessing the transport of benzene on the beach was proposed. ● The behavior of benzene in the subsurface of the beach was impacted by tide. ● Tidal amplitude influenced the travel speed and the benzene biodegradation. ● Hydraulic conductivity had the impact on plume residence time and biodegradation. ● Plume dispersed and concentration decreased due to high longitudinal dispersivity. The release and transport of benzene in coastal aquifers were investigated in the present study. Numerical simulations were implemented using the SEAM3D, coupled with GMS, to study the behavior of benzene in the subsurface of tidally influenced beaches. The transport and fate of the benzene plume were simulated, considering advection, dispersion, sorption, biodegradation, and dissolution on the beach. Different tide amplitudes, aquifer characteristics, and pollutant release locations were studied. It was found that the tide amplitude, hydraulic conductivity, and longitudinal dispersivity were the primary factors affecting the fate and transport of benzene. The tidal amplitude influenced the transport speed and percentage of biodegradation of benzene plume in the beach. A high tidal range reduced the spreading area and enhanced the rate of benzene biodegradation. Hydraulic conductivity had an impact on plume residence time and the percentage of contaminant biodegradation. Lower hydraulic conductivity induced longer residence time in each beach portion and a higher percentage of biodegradation on the beach. The plume dispersed and the concentration decreased due to high longitudinal dispersivity. The results can be used to support future risk assessment and management for the shorelines impacted by spill and leaking accidents. Modeling the heterogeneous beach aquifer subjected to tides can also be further explored in the future study.     

Cleaning of water contaminated by heavy metals using beetroot fibers as biofilter

We report for the first time the use of beetroot fibers to eliminate heavy metals from polluted water. This biomass is used to remove lead, copper and zinc ions. The kinetics and beetroot fibers fixation capacities of lead, zinc and copper according to various physico‐chemical parameters such as pH, and the concentration of metal solutions were studied. The experiments were carried out in a laboratory column with fixed bed. For kinetic studies, samples of metal solutions were taken at regular intervals and measured by atomic absorption spectrometry. pH at 6.6 shows a maximum retention of the above cited metals by beetroot fibers (98%, 92%, 90% respectively). Quantity of cations retained by this biomass in simple and mixture solution is respectively estimated to be 23.6, 14.02 and 14.64 mg/g. Results indicate the usefulness of this biomass in the remediation of water contaminated by heavy metals by a rapid, practical and efficient method.