应对不确定性:呼吁建立新的科学政策论坛

科学界和政策界具有不同的目标,这就自然导致了对构成某种变化或现象的"检验"标准的差异,以及用不同的方法去描述不确定性和风险的持性及传达不确定性和风险.这些差异可能损害科学家、决策者和公众之间的有效沟通,同时也限制了科学家所愿意研究的社会紧迫问题的类型.本文主要回顾了一系列处理不确定性问题的方法,阐述了当科学和政策不能很好协调时所可能引起的一些错误.并在此基础上,特别针对解决不确定性问题提出了一些具体建议,包括重构科学规范,建立由科学、政策两方面领导广泛参加的科学政策论坛.     

Coping with uncertainty: a call for a new science-policy forum

The scientific and policy worlds have different goals, which can lead to different standards for what constitutes "proof" of a change or phenomena, and different approaches for characterizing and conveying uncertainty and risk. These differences can compromise effective communication among scientists, policymakers, and the public, and constrain the types of socially compelling questions scientists are willing to address. In this paper, we review a set of approaches for dealing with uncertainty, and illustrate some of the errors that arise when science and policy fail to coordinate correctly. We offer a set of recommendations, including restructuring of science curricula and establishment of science-policy forums populated by leaders in both arenas, and specifically constituted to address problems of uncertainty.     

Influence of Environmental Factors on the Evolution of Industrial Noise-Induced Hearing Loss

The aim of the study is to investigate how environmental factors, associated with exposure to industrial noise, affect the development of chronic noise-induced hearing loss.The studywas conducted on 186 male subjectsworking in two bottling plants, situated respectively in a small farming community, and in a medium-sized city with significant levels of noise pollution. Levels of occupational exposure were the same for the two groups.The subjects were selected by means of a preliminary medical examination, and exposed to tonal hearing tests and acoustic impedance tests. Statistical analysis was performed on hearing threshold values obtained at the frequencies of 500, 1000, 2000 and 4000 Hz.The comparison between the thresholds obtained in the two groups showed a statistically significant difference, especially at the frequency of 4000 Hz and for occupational exposure exceeding 17 yr. The results led us to conclude that environmental factors, and urban noise in particular, influence the onset and development of occupational acoustic trauma, and that those working in the country are significantly less affected than those in the city. Since occupational exposure was the same for both groups, their different responses must therefore be interpreted as due to differences in nonoccupational exposure, in turn dependent on different opportunities for rest from noise and different levels of exposure to noise pollution.     

Serum levels of PCDDs, PCDFs and PCBs in non-occupationally exposed population groups living near two incineration plants in Tuscany, Italy

A pilot study was carried out in Tuscany, Italy, to provide preliminary information on the concentrations of polychlorinated dibenzodioxins (PCDDs), polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs), dioxin-like polychlorobiphenyls (DL-PCBs), and selected non-dioxin-like PCBs (NDL-PCBs) in groups of subjects living in the vicinity of two incineration plants. Seventy-four volunteers were enrolled from areas identified as under a potential impact from incinerator emissions and from not exposed areas. No significant differences were observed between subjects living in the two types of areas. Total concentrations of PCDDs, PCDFs, and DL-PCBs resulted to be in the range 23-30 pg WHO-TEQ g(-1), lipid base, for subjects in the 27-54 year age groups, while concentrations increased to 40-44 pgTEQ g(-1) for the two 55-67 year age groups. The levels of PCDDs and PCDFs were in good agreement with those observed for unexposed population groups in Italy, while the contribution to total TEQ from DL-PCBs was appreciably higher than those currently observed in the general population in Italy and other countries. As to NDL-PCBs, serum levels of the six "indicator" congeners were in the range 240-300 ng g(-1), lipid base, for subjects in the 27-54 year age groups. A raise in NDL-PCB body burden (430-470 ng g(-1), lipid base) was observed for the two 55+ year age groups, in agreement with the expected age-dependent increase. The findings from this study do not show an incremental exposure to PCDDs and PCDFs in the samples from subjects living around the two incineration plants, whereas PCB congener profiles in all samples suggest a possible impact on the area of interest of industrial activities from near industrial settlements.     

Depletion of selected polychlorinated biphenyl, dibenzodioxin, and dibenzofuran congeners in farmed rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss): a hint for safer fish farming

Farmed fish can be exposed to persistent organic contaminants--such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), dibenzodioxins (PCDDs), and dibenzofurans (PCDFs)--via feed, this eventually resulting in accumulation levels of health concern. To study the correlation between feed contamination, chemical accumulation in fish muscle (fillet), and chemical depletion, an all-vegetal base (or blank) feed was prepared and fortified with a commercial PCB mixture (Aroclor 1254) and six PCDD and PCDF congeners (namely, 2,3,7,8-T(4)CDD, 2,3,7,8-T(4)CDF, 1,2,3,7,8-P(5)CDD, 1,2,3,7,8-P(5)CDF, O(8)CDD, and O(8)CDF) to reproduce realistic low, medium, and high contamination levels. After a 1-month exposure, trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) were fed with the blank feed and sacrificed every 0.5 months over a 3-month period from exposure end; fillet specimens were sampled at each time. In all groups, the average fish weight increased linearly through the observation period. The chemical diminishing patterns observed were due to the combined effect of clearance and growth dilution: for 10 PCB and four PCDD and PCDF congeners, patterns were described with an empirical one-compartment (fish muscle) model. The canonical pseudo-first-order kinetic equation used was also modified into the form C=[C(0)exp(-k(C)t)] (m(W)t+1)(-1) to distinguish between the contributions to depletion from clearance, exp(-k(C)t), and growth dilution, (m(W)t+1)(-1). Most mean clearance half-life (HL(C)) estimates appear to be greater than 4 months, in a number of cases reaching magnitudes well over 10 months or even negative, thus clearly indicating a non-negligible contribution from a second compartment. Based on means and their 95% confidence intervals, the depletion HL(D) estimates of the 14 selected congeners seem to be comprised between 1.2-3.4 and 1.0-5.0 months, respectively: these values, accounting for both clearance and growth dilution, provide an indication of the relevance of a blank feed as a management option to reduce the overall PCB, PCDD, and PCDF content in farmed trout. Due to a lack of bioaccumulation, O(8)CDD and O(8)CDF yielded no results for evaluation, whereas for many PCB congeners results were insufficient for empirical modelling.     

Magnetic susceptibility measurements as proxy method to monitor soil pollution: development of experimental protocols for field surveys

In the framework of the development of new methods for measuring and monitoring soil pollution, this paper deals with the use of magnetic methodologies to monitor the heavy metals presence in soils. In particular it shows a procedure for collecting magnetic susceptibility measurements in order to interpret them as proxy variable for monitoring heavy metals in soils. Magnetic measurements are carried out using a magnetic susceptibility meter with two different probes for in situ field surveys. The experimental procedure is divided in two parts. In the first part we carry out laboratory tests aimed to evaluate, for both the probes, the effective investigation depth for soil, the measurement reproducibility under different conditions, and the influence of water content. We complete this part comparing in situ measurements obtained by means of two probes with different characteristics. In the second part we carry out tests to evaluate the relationships between heavy metal levels and magnetic susceptibility values of soil samples. We investigate the variability of the magnetic susceptibility measurements contaminating different soil samples with well known concentration of heavy metals. Moreover we study the correlation between magnetic susceptibility values and metal concentrations, determined by means of AAS, in soil samples collected during a field survey. Results suggest that a careful check of the experimental procedure play a crucial role for using magnetic susceptibility measurements for heavy metals in situ monitoring. This is very helpful both for improving the quality of data and for making simpler data interpretation.     

Agronomic adaptation strategies under climate change for winter durum wheat and tomato in southern Italy: irrigation and nitrogen fertilization

Agricultural crops are affected by climate change due to the relationship between crop development, growth, yield, CO₂ atmospheric concentration and climate conditions. In particular, the further reduction in existing limited water resources combined with an increase in temperature may result in higher impacts on agricultural crops in the Mediterranean area than in other regions. In this study, the cropping system models CERES-Wheat and CROPGRO-Tomato of the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) were used to analyse the response of winter durum wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum Mill.) crops to climate change, irrigation and nitrogen fertilizer managements in one of most productive areas of Italy (i.e. Capitanata, Puglia). For this analysis, three climatic datasets were used: (1) a single dataset (50?km?×?50?km) provided by the JRC European centre for the period 1975–2005; two datasets from HadCM3 for the IPCC A2 GHG scenario for time slices with +2°C (centred over 2030–2060) and +5°C (centred over 2070–2099), respectively. All three datasets were used to generate synthetic climate series using a weather simulator (model LARS-WG). Adaptation strategies, such as irrigation and N fertilizer managements, have been investigated to either avoid or at least reduce the negative impacts induced by climate change impacts for both crops. Warmer temperatures were primarily shown to accelerate wheat and tomato phenology, thereby resulting in decreased total dry matter accumulation for both tomato and wheat under the +5°C future climate scenario. Under the +2°C scenario, dry matter accumulation and resulting yield were also reduced for tomato, whereas no negative yield effects were observed for winter durum wheat. In general, limiting the global mean temperature change of 2°C, the application of adaptation strategies (irrigation and nitrogen fertilization) showed a positive effect in minimizing the negative impacts of climate change on productivity of tomato cultivated in southern Italy.