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333.
The Influence of Model Structure on Conclusions about the Viability and Harvesting of Serengeti Wildebeest 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
We investigate how the viability and harvestability predicted by population models are affected by details of model construction. Based on this analysis we discuss some of the pitfalls associated with the use of classical statistical techniques for resolving the uncertainties associated with modeling population dynamics. The management of the Serengeti wildebeest (Connochaetes taurinus) is used as a case study. We fitted a collection of age-structured and unstructured models to a common set of available data and compared model predictions in terms of wildebeest viability and harvest. Models that depicted demographic processes in strikingly different ways fitted the data equally well. However, upon further analysis it became clear that models that fit the data equally well could nonetheless have very different management implications. In general, model structure had a much larger effect on viability analysis (e.g., time to collapse) than on optimal harvest analysis (e.g., harvest rate that maximizes harvest). Some modeling decisions, such as including age-dependent fertility rates, did not affect management predictions, but others had a strong effect (e.g., choice of model structure). Because several suitable models of comparable complexity fitted the data equally well, traditional model selection methods based on the parsimony principle were not practical for judging the value of alternative models. Our results stress the need to implement analytical frameworks for population management that explicitly consider the uncertainty about the behavior of natural systems. 相似文献
334.
John M. Graham Jr. Eileen F. Rawnsley G. Millard Simmons Doris H. Wurster-Hill Jonathan P. Park Miguel Marin-Padilla Harte C. Crow 《黑龙江环境通报》1989,9(6):409-419
Seven cases of triploidy were encountered by the Prenatal Diagnosis Program at Dartmouth–Hitchcock Medical Center over an 8-year period through associated pregnancy complications. We describe the characteristic findings that facilitate prenatal diagnosis and management. Our experience includes fetuses with major central nervous system abnormalities (spina bifida aperta, holoprosencephaly) and anterior abdominal wall defects, which are detectable with routine prenatal diagnostic screening examinations (ultrasound and AFP). In addition, we stress the importance of recognizing obstetric complications and associated cystic placental changes, which are quite common among triploid conceptuses. Molar changes associated with triploidy have a more benign prognosis than that associated with diploid moles. Such molar changes may relate to the presence of a diploid paternal chromosome complement. The usefulness of cytofluorometric DNA determinations in helping to confirm a clinical suspicion of triploidy is emphasized. These cases are presented in an effort to facilitate prenatal recognition and management of this common cytogenetic condition and prevent unnecessary Caesarean section deliveries. 相似文献
335.
Sánchez-Monedero MA Stentiford EI Urpilainen ST 《Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association (1995)》2005,55(5):612-618
Bioaerosol release from composting plants is a cause of concern because of the potential health impacts on site workers and local residents. A one-year monitoring was undertaken in a typical composting plant treating green wastes by windrowing in the open. Aspergillus fumigatus spores and mesophilic bacteria were used as monitoring parameters and were collected in a six-stage Andersen sampler impactor from the air at different locations and during different operational activities. Background concentrations of both microorganisms were generally below 1000 colony-forming units m(-3) when no vigorous activity was taking place. Shredding of fresh green wastes, pile turning, and screening of mature compost were identified as the activities generating the highest amounts of both bioaerosols 40 m downwind of the composting pad. These air concentrations were approximately 2 log units higher than background levels. Screening of mature compost generated lower amounts of A. fumigatus than the other two activities (an average of 1 log unit higher than background levels). Workers were identified as the main potential receptors of high bioaerosol concentrations in areas close to the composting pad, whereas no major risk for local residents was expected because the concentrations recorded at distances of 200 and 300 m downwind of the operational area were not significantly different from background levels. 相似文献
336.
337.
A temperature-dependent growth model is presented for nauplii and copepodites of the estuarine calanoid copepod Acartia tonsa from southern Europe (Portugal). Development was followed from egg to adult in the laboratory at four temperatures (10, 15, 18 and 22°C) and under saturating food conditions (>1,000 μg C l−1). Development times versus incubation temperature were fitted to a Belehradek’s function, showing that development times decreased with increasing incubation temperature: at 10°C, A. tonsa need 40.3 days to reach adult stage, decreasing to 8.9 days when reared at 22°C. ANCOVA (homogeneity of slopes) showed that temperature (P<0.001) and growth phase (P<0.01) had a significant effect on the growth rate. Over the range of temperatures tested in this study, highest weight-specific growth rates were found during naupliar development (NI–NVI) and varied from 0.185 day−1 (10°C) to 0.880 day−1 (22°C) with a Q
10 equal to 3.66. During copepodite growth (CI–CV), the weight-specific growth rates ranged from 0.125 day−1 (10°C) to 0.488 day−1 (22°C) with a Q
10 equal to 3.12. The weight-specific growth rates (g) followed temperature (T) by a linear relationship and described as ln g=−2.962+0.130 T (r
2=0.99, P<0.001) for naupliar stages and ln g=−3.134+0.114T (r
2=0.97, P<0.001) for copepodite stages. By comparing in situ growth rates (juvenile growth and fecundity) for A. tonsa taken from the literature with the temperature-dependent growth model defined here we suggest that the adult females of A. tonsa are more frequently food limited than juveniles. 相似文献
338.
Conservation of endangered species requires comprehensive understanding of their distribution and habitat requirements, in order to implement better management strategies. Unfortunately, this understanding is often difficult to gather at the short term required by rapidly declining populations of many rare vertebrates. We present a spatial habitat modeling approach that integrates a molecular technique for species detection with landscape information to assess habitat requirements of a critically endangered mammalian carnivore, the Iberian lynx (Lynx pardinus), in a poorly known population in Spain. We formulated a set of model hypotheses for habitat selection at the spatial scale of home ranges, based on previous information on lynx requirements of space, vegetation, and prey. To obtain the required data for model selection, we designed a sampling protocol based on surveys of feces and their molecular analysis for species identification. After comparing candidate models, we selected a parsimonious one that allowed (1) reliable assessment of lynx habitat requirements at the scale of home ranges, (2) prediction of lynx distribution and potential population size, and (3) identification of landscape management priorities for habitat conservation. This model predicted that the species was more likely to occur in landscapes with a higher percentage of rocky areas and higher cover of bushes typical of mature mediterranean shrubland mosaics. Its accuracy for discriminating lynx presence was approximately 85%, indicating high predictive performance. Mapping model predictions showed that only 16% of the studied areas constitute potential habitat for lynx, even though the region is dominated by large extents of well-preserved native vegetation with low human interference. Habitat was mostly clumped in two nearby patches connected by vegetation adequate for lynx dispersal and had a capacity for 28-62 potential breeding territories. The lynx population in Sierra Morena is probably the largest persisting today, but it is still critically small for optimism about its long-term persistence. Model results suggest habitat conservation and restoration actions needed for preserving the species, including reconciliation of hunting management with preservation of mature shrubland over large areas (particularly in rocky landscapes). The approach presented here can be applied to many other species for which the ecological information needed to develop sound habitat conservation strategies is lacking. 相似文献
339.
Miguel A. Altieri 《Natural resources forum》2000,24(2):97-105
The great majority of farmers in Latin America are peasants who still farm small plots of land, usually in marginal environments utilizing traditional and subsistence methods. The contribution of the 16 million peasant units to regional food security is however substantial. Research has shown that peasant systems, which mostly rely on local resources and complex cropping patterns, are reasonably productive despite their small land endowments and low use of external inputs. Moreover analysis of NGO-led agroecological initiatives show that traditional crop and animal systems can be adapted to increase productivity by biologically re-structuring peasant farms which in turn leads to optimization of key agroecosystem processes (nutrient cycling, organic matter accumulation, biological pest regulation, etc.) and efficient use of labour and local resources. Examples of such grassroots projects are herein described to show that agroecological approaches can offer opportunities to substantially increase food production while preserving the natural resource base and empowering rural communities. 相似文献
340.
Mirady Sebastiani Sara Elena González María Mercedes Castillo Pablo Alvizu María Albertina Oliveira Jorge Pérez Antonio Quilici Martín Rada María Carolina Yáber Miguel Lentino 《Environmental management》1994,18(5):647-661
In Venezuela, large-scale shrimp farming began in the 1980s. By 1987, the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources (MARNR)
had received 14 proposals for approval. A developer illegally started the construction of ponds at the Píritu Lagoon in the
State of Anzoátegui before the authorization process was completed. This action triggered a land-use conflict. This study
identifies the causes for public protest and determines the consequences of this conflict for land-use management. The results
show that public protest was based on the impacts of the partial construction of ponds. These impacts were related to direct
removal of wetlands, interruption of natural patterns of surface flows, and alteration of feeding grounds of some bird species
with migratory status. Consequences were identified in relation to the role that nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) play
in land-use conflicts and the actions that MARNR could take in the future to prevent and solve similar situations. 相似文献