POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON CALIFORNIA HYDROLOGY1

ABSTRACT: Previous reports based on climate change scenarios have suggested that California will be subjected to increased wintertime and decreased summertime streamflow. Due to the uncertainty of projections in future climate, a new range of potential climatological future temperature shifts and precipitation ratios is applied to the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model and Anderson Snow Model in order to determine hydrologic sensitivities. Two general circulation models (GCMs) were used in this analysis: one that is warm and wet (HadCM2 run 1) and one that is cool and dry (PCM run B06.06), relative to the GCM projections for California that were part of the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. A set of specified incremental temperature shifts from 1.5°C to 5.0°C and precipitation ratios from 0.70 to 1.30 were also used as input to the snow and soil moisture accounting models, providing for additional scenarios (e.g., warm/dry, cool/wet). Hydrologic calculations were performed for a set of California river basins that extend from the coastal mountains and Sierra Nevada northern region to the southern Sierra Nevada region; these were applied to a water allocation analysis in a companion paper. Results indicate that for all snow‐producing cases, a larger proportion of the streamflow volume will occur earlier in the year. The amount and timing is dependent on the characteristics of each basin, particularly the elevation. Increased temperatures lead to a higher freezing line, therefore less snow accumulation and increased melting below the freezing height. The hydrologic response varies for each scenario, and the resulting solution set provides bounds to the range of possible change in streamflow, snowmelt, snow water equivalent, and the change in the magnitude of annual high flows. An important result that appears for all snowmelt driven runoff basins, is that late winter snow accumulation decreases by 50 percent toward the end of this century.     

Guidance for determining the best disposition of large tracts of decommissioned land

Many government agencies and other organizations hold large tracts of surplus land. Some are investigating ways to lower expenses by selling the land or transferring management responsibility. There is no generally recognized process used to decide what land can be decommissioned and what future use would be best. This paper provides guidance for land‐use decisions in the form of a checklist. The checklist questions address both the socio‐economic resources and current land use in the region, and the ecological resources and suitability of the tract itself. The answers will clarify regional public needs and the economic and ecological values of the land.     

The role of analytical science in natural resource decision making

There is a continuing debate about the proper role of analytical (positivist) science in natural resource decision making. Two diametrically opposed views are evident, arguing for and against a more extended role for scientific information. The debate takes on a different complexion if one recognizes that certain kinds of problem, referred to here as “wicked” or “trans-science” problems, may not be amenable to the analytical process. Indeed, the mistaken application of analytical methods to trans-science problems may not only be a waste of time and money but also serve to hinder policy development. Since many environmental issues are trans-science in nature, then it follows that alternatives to analytical science need to be developed. In this article, the issues involved in the debate are clarified by examining the impact of the use of analytical methods in a particular case, the spruce budworm controversy in New Brunswick. The article ends with some suggestions about a “holistic” approach to the problem.     

The role of citizen scientist in nature resource decision-making: Lessons from the spruce budworm problem in Canada

Summary An increased role for citizen participation in natural resource decision-making has been advocated by, amongst others, the United Nations (Brundtland Commission) as a means of initiating fundamental changes in the way we exploit natural resources. However, attempts at meaningful participation by the public are met with resistance, commonly by the dominant elites who control environmental and economic policies. Citizen groups press for involvement, only to be dismissed by local establishments as ill-informed amateurs. The resulting conflicts seldom lead to innovations in policy or to constructive cooperation in the face of new environmental problems. This leads the author to feelings of pessimism about prospects for genuine public participation in the absence of political change. In arguing in support of such change, a case study is offered which illustrates the unfortunate consequences that ensue when participation is sought and rejected. The paper closes with recommendations for the way in which citizen groups could contribute in a meaningful way to natural resource decision-making, were they to be given the opportunity.Dr Alan Miller is currently Professor of Psychology at the University of New Brunswick. He has published previously in this journal on the topic of Ideology and Environmental Risk Management (The Environmentalist,5(1), 21–30.)     

ESTIMATING EVAPORATION FROM UTAH'S GREAT SALT LAKE USING THERMAL INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY1

ABSTRACT: Water surface temperatures can be obtained from satellite thermal remote sensing. Landsat and other satellites sense emitted thermal infrared radiation on a regular basis over much of the earth's surface. Evaporation is accomplished by the net transport of mass from the water surface to the atmosphere. The evaporative transfer predominantly determines the water surface temperature. Hence, there should be good correlations between evaporation and surface temperatures. Previous investigations on Utah Lake with satellite-derived temperatures and pan- and model-derived evaporation values have produced good correlations. However, more study was required with additional satellite data and evaporation measurements for saltwater conditions. The applicability of this method for estimating evaporation on Utah's Great Salt Lake was of particular interest at this time because of the unprecedented rise of this terminal lake. Satellite thermal data and evaporation data from four different years were obtained for the Great Salt Lake and the surrounding region. More than 350 correlation and linear regression analyses were performed on the temperature and evaporation data. The lake salt concentrations were also factored into the analyses in several different ways. The correlation results were generally very good and a methodology for using satellite-derived water surface temperatures along with salt concentrations was developed to estimate evaporation.     

TRENDS IN FRESHWATER INFLOW TO SAN FRANCISCO BAY FROM TUE SACRAMENTO-SAN JOAQUIN DELTA1

ABSTRACT: Outflow from the Sacramento-San Joaquin river system (Delta outflow) provides about 90 percent of the freshwater flow to San Francisco Bay. Because this river system also supplies most of the water used in California, some believed that annual freshwater flow to the Bay had declined by as much as 50 to 60 percent as water use increased. Consequently, we studied trends in actual Delta outflow and precipitation for the period 1921 to 1986, which is when Delta outflow data are available. We found that there has been no decrease in the annual Delta outflow over this period. In fact, a statistically significant increase in annual Delta outflow of 87 cfa/yr has occurred during the period 1921 to 1986. One reason that Delta outflow has increased is because precipitation has increased faster than water use. Other contributing factors include increased runoff from land use changes, water imports from other areas, and the redistribution of ground water. In addition, statistically significant seasonal trends in Delta outflow were found. Over the period 1921–1986 Delta outflow decreased in April and May and increased from July through November. Changes in other months were not statistically significant. These seasonal changes result primarily from the operation of upstream flood control and water development projects, which store water in the spring and release it in the summer and fall. These seasonal changes are also influenced by a climatic shift that has decreased spring snowmelt runoff and increased late summer through winter precipitation.     

Environmental cost accounting: The bottom line for environmental quality management

Recent years have seen the environment emerge as one of the most pressing issues facing American business. Eventually, environmental costs will affect the bottom line of every American company. A recent study in the National Law Journal estimates that cleanup of the nation's known hazardous wastes sites will cost $752 billion over thirty years under current environmental policies. Environmental legislation and regulations impose annual compliance costs estimated by the Environmental Protection Agency at more than $30 billion. In the near future, environmental expenses for cleanup, regulatory compliance, and management are anticipated to grow to between 2.5 and 3 percent of GNP. Corporations that wish to be competitive must successfully manage these costs while maintaining or improving their role as responsible corporate citizens. Implementing a comprehensive system for identifying and managing environmental costs requires a multidisciplinary team effort. Environmental costs impact product selection, design and pricing, capital budgeting, and future strategic direction. In order to make informed and meaningful managerial decisions on environmental programs, real cost data are vital. An environmental management systems (EMS) requires information to set goals and then monitor progress towards those goals over time. This article will discuss the current cost accounting systems (CASs) available to support the myriad goals of environmental management systems. In addition, the article will outline a framework for plotting the location of your current EMS on a matrix of regulatory and information requirements and evaluating whether your corporation's CAS is adequate to support the goals and objectives set by your environmental management program. By anticipating future regulatory and information requirements, flexible systems can be developed to adapt to new and more stringent regulations and more complex information requirements.     

HYDROLOGIC MODELING OF LAND PROCESSES IN PUERTO RICO USING REMOTELY SENSED DATA1

ABSTRACT: An integrated, multi-disciplinary effort to model land processes affecting Mayaguez Bay in western Puerto Rico is described. A modeling strategy was developed to take advantage of remotely sensed data. The spatial, interannual, and seasonal variability of sediment discharges to the bay were also evaluated. Classified images of remotely sensed data revealed the spatial distribution and quantities of land use classes in the region and aided in the discretization of the watershed into homogeneous regions. These regions were modeled using a geomorphic modeling technique based upon spatially averaged parameters. Simulation results from the modeling effort compared favorably with observations at two locations within the watershed. Results showed that runoff and sediment loads from the area exhibit a marked seasonal trend and that deforested areas located in the foothill regions of the watershed contribute a disproportionate share of the sediment load to the bay. In years when rainfall distributions are uniformly distributed over the area, the sediment yields may be up to 100 percent higher than years when the rainfall is concentrated in the heavily forested mountainous regions.