Some stochastic differential equation models of an aquatic ecosystem

A set of stochastic differential equations has been used to model an aquatic ecosystem. The randomness in the system has been introduced through initial conditions of the state variables, parameters, and input variables (light and temperature). These models were analysed using Monte Carlo simulation procedures and the results were similar to those observed in the experimental and field data. They were different, however, from the results of a deterministic simulation. This approach allows us to incorporate the maximum degree of information in the model and to study the behavior of the system without arbitrarily manipulating the values of the parameters. Some possible refinements and generalizations of this approach are also discussed.     

Response to heavy nitrogen applications in fertilizer experiments in British forests

Increasing concern over the level of nitrogen inputs to forests in polluted rain has led to a number of suggestions of possible adverse consequences under the general heading of nitrogen saturation. A saturated ecosystem may be one (a) in which the trees show no growth response to the addition of further nitrogen, (b) in which addition of further nitrogen leads to growth disturbances or reduction, or (c) in which elevated nitrogen inputs lead to increased losses of nitrate in streamwater. Experience gained from forest fertilizer experiments is used to examine each of these suggestions. A definition involving a lack of growth response (a) is shown to be based on a lack of understanding of the continuing changing patterns of nitrogen demand and mineralization in even-aged forests. Similarly, using growth disturbances (b) is unsatisfactory because, it is suggested, these are either secondary deficiencies that appear once growth accelerates with added nitrogen or are a consequence of changing growth with increasing size. A definition based on increased loss of nitrate is, by analogy with the situation for sulphate, at least superficially attractive. However, the fact that nitrate retention is predominantly biological, rather than chemical, makes for difficulties and the limited evidence available suggests that many exceptions and variations may exist. Whilst experience with forest fertilizers might not be entirely apposite, for example foliar uptake from polluted rain may be a factor, it is urged that at least any hypothesis put forward should be compatible with information gained from fertilizer trials.     

SUBSURFACE DISTRIBUTION OF NITRATES BELOW COMMERCIAL CATTLE FEEDLOTS,TEXAS HIGH PLAINS1

ABSTRACT. Samples for water-quality analyses were collected from beneath eighty commercial cattle feedlots in the Texas High Plains. Twenty-two feedlots were drilled and/or cored to establish vertical gradients of dissolved solids. Sample and gamma logs, size analyses and vertical permeability of cores were determined from samples beneath these lots. Relationships of groundwater saturated thickness, depth to watertable, and age of lots to specificion distribution were evaluated. The study includes lots ranging in age from 35 years to new installations. Runoff collection-systems on lots include playas, man-made ponds, and dammed and undammed stream channels. Infiltration of feedlot liquid waste to the watertable below feedyards is insignificant in most localities in the Texas High Plains. Infiltration of “collected” feedlot runoff and subsequent concentration of dissolved ions in groundwater in the High Plains are dependent upon, among other things, (1) surface and subsurface geology, (2) depth to water, (3) thickness of the groundwater zone, and to (4) differences in lateral and vertical permeabilities of the Ogallala Formation, the major aquifer. Certainly, no regional subsurface pollution problem exists today nor is one foreseen from cattle feedlot runoff in the Texas High Plains.     

STORM WATER RUNOFF QUALITY FROM THREE LAND-USE AREAS IN SOUTH FLORIDA1

ABSTRACT: Storm water runoff studies of three small basins (20, 40, and 58 acres) in the Fort Lauderdale area of Florida were conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in 1974–78. The basins were homogeneously developed with land uses being: commercial, single family residential, and high traffic volume highway. Synchronized data were collected for rainfall, storm water discharge, storm water quality, and bulk precipitation (rainfall plus dry fallout) quality. Analysis of the storm water discharge data showed that most runoff was from impervious areas hydraulically connected to drain inlets. Regression analyses of the storm water discharge and water quality data indicated that storm loads from the single family residential area correlated strongly with peak discharge and length of antecedent dry periods. Storm loads from the highway area correlated strongly with rainfall and less strongly with peak discharge and antecedent dry periods. Storm loads from the commercial area correlated strongly with peak discharge and rainfall, and less strongly with antecedent dry periods. On a unit area basis, the single family residential area yielded the largest loads of nitrogen, phosphorus, and dissolved solids. The commercial area yielded the largest loads of lead, zinc, and chemical oxygen demand. Yields of carbon were about the same for the three areas. Constituent loadings derived directly from the atmosphere were estimated on the basis of bulk precipitation samples and compared with storm runoff loads from the highway and commercial areas.     

DOWNSCALED CLIMATE AND STREAMFLOW STUDY OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: Downscaling coarse resolution climate data to scales that are useful for impact assessment studies is receiving increased attention. Basin-scale hydrologic processes and other local climate impacts related to water resources such as reservoir management, crop and forest productivity, and ecosystem response require climate information at scales that are much finer than current and future GCM resolutions. The Regional Climate System Model (RCSM) is a dynamic downscaling system that has been used since 1994 for short-term precipitation and streamflow predictions and seasonal hindcast analysis with good skill. During the 1997–1998 winter, experimental seasonal forecasts were made in collaboration with the NOAA Climate Prediction Center and UCLA with promising results. Preliminary studies of a control and 2°CO₂ perturbation for the southwestern U.S. have been performed.     

A multi-criteria geographic information systems approach for the measurement of vulnerability to climate change

A flexible procedure for the development of a multi-criteria composite index to measure relative vulnerability under future climate change scenarios is presented. The composite index is developed using the Weighted Ordered Weighted Average (WOWA) aggregation technique which enables the selection of different levels of trade-off, which controls the degree to which indicators are able to average out others. We explore this approach in an illustrative case study of the United States (US), using future projections of widely available indicators quantifying flood vulnerability under two scenarios of climate change. The results are mapped for two future time intervals for each climate scenario, highlighting areas that may exhibit higher future vulnerability to flooding events. Based on a Monte Carlo robustness analysis, we find that the WOWA aggregation technique can provide a more flexible and potentially robust option for the construction of vulnerability indices than traditionally used approaches such as Weighted Linear Combinations (WLC). This information was used to develop a proof-of-concept vulnerability assessment to climate change impacts for the US Army Corps of Engineers. Lessons learned in this study informed the climate change screening analysis currently under way.     

Driving, navigation, and vehicular technology: experiences of older drivers and their co-pilots

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this article is to explore relationship between older drivers and their passengers (co-pilots) and potential implications of in-vehicle navigation technology on their driving safety. METHODS: Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 44 healthy, community-dwelling older adults (aged 60-83) or 22 married couples. Males identified themselves as drivers and females identified themselves as passengers (i.e., co-pilot). RESULTS: Findings indicate that operating a motor vehicle in older adulthood is a shared activity between drivers and passengers. Older drivers and co-pilots reported their level of interaction depended on their familiarity with their route. Navigating unfamiliar areas, particularly large urban centers, was identified as the most challenging driving situation. Participants identified their level of collaboration would increase with the advent of in-vehicle navigation technology. Safety concerns related to the use of this technology, included distraction of both drivers and passengers. Differences amongst couples in their perceptions of using this technology were linked to their level of experience with using other forms of technology. CONCLUSIONS: Older drivers and passengers identified working closely together when operating a motor vehicle. Further investigation into the effects of in-vehicle navigation technology on the driving safety of older drivers and their co-pilots is warranted.     

Empirical Estimation of Stream Discharge Using Channel Geometry in Low‐Gradient,Sand‐Bed Streams of the Southeastern Plains

Manning's equation is used widely to predict stream discharge (Q) from hydraulic variables when logistics constrain empirical measurements of in‐bank flow events. Uncertainty in Manning's roughness (n_M) is the major source of error in natural channels, and sand‐bed streams pose difficulties because flow resistance is affected by flow‐dependent bed configuration. Our study was designed to develop and validate models for estimating Q from channel geometry easily derived from cross‐sectional surveys and available GIS data. A database was compiled consisting of 484 Q measurements from 75 sand‐bed streams in Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina (Southeastern Plains), and Florida (Southern Coastal Plain), with six New Zealand streams included to develop statistical models to predict Q from hydraulic variables. Model error characteristics were estimated with leave‐one‐site‐out jackknifing. Independent data of 317 Q measurements from 55 Southeastern Plains streams indicated the model (Q = A_cR_H^0.6906S^0.1216; where A_c is the channel area, R_H is the hydraulic radius, and S is the bed slope) best predicted Q, based on Akaike's information criterion and root mean square error. Models also were developed from smaller Q range subsets to explore if subsets increased predictive ability, but error fit statistics suggested that these were not reasonable alternatives to the above equation. Thus, we recommend the above equation for predicting in‐bank Q of unbraided, sandy streams of the Southeastern Plains.