A UNIFYING SET OF PROBABILITY TRANSFORMS FOR STOCHASTIC HYDROLOGY1

Abstract: An ordered set of probability sensity functions was derived form transforms of the normal distribution. Variate transforms are based on orders of exponentiation. The set of distributions includes the log-normal. a partial basis for use of these functins in hydrology is demonstrated by establishing some required properties. A concept of mixed samples of zero and nonzero elements forming nonseparable sets of virtual and real elements is introduced to establish a physical lower limit of sampled diata independent of functional bounds.     

A fresh look at the benefits and costs of the US acid rain program

The US Acid Rain Program (Title IV of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments) has achieved substantial reductions in emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) from power plants in the United States. We compare new estimates of the benefits and costs of Title IV to those made in 1990. Important changes in our understanding of and ability to quantify the benefits of Title IV have occurred. Benefits to human health now take a much higher profile because the contribution of SO2 and NOx emissions to the formation of fine particulate (PM2.5) is substantial, and evidence of the harmful human health effects of PM2.5 has emerged in the last 15 years. New estimates of the health benefits of PM2.5 reductions are the largest category of quantified health and environmental benefits and total over 100 billion US dollars annually for 2010 when the program is expected to be fully implemented. Although important uncertainties exist in any specific estimate of the benefits, even if the estimates were calculated using more limiting assumptions and interpretations of the literature they would still substantially exceed the costs. Estimates of annualized costs for 2010 are about 3 billion US dollars, which is less than half of what was estimated in 1990. Research since 1990 also suggests that environmental problems associated with acid deposition and nitrogen deposition are more challenging to resolve than originally thought and will require larger reductions in emissions to reverse. The greater than expected benefits to human health, the greater vulnerability of natural resources and ecosystems, and the lower than expected costs all point to the conclusion that further reductions in SO2 and NOx emissions from power plants beyond those currently required by Title IV are warranted.     

Performance of an in situ passive sampling system for metals in stormwater

A passive sampler has been developed and is demonstrated in situ for urban runoff. The passive sampler is compared to conventional composite (time-dependent and flow-weighted) bottle sampling during and between storm events. The sampling was carried out at established stormwater stations; before and after a stormwater detention pond. In situ deployment of the passive sampler provides the metal concentrations, corresponding to the electrochemically available fraction of total metal, for time-dependent samples collected in parallel. The sampler provides improved accuracy compared to bottle sampling because contamination during sample transport and handling is minimised. Laboratory handling is reduced by direct analysis of the accumulated metals on the receiving membrane by laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. Passive sampling also solves the problem of metal speciation change during transport to the laboratory, which is a potential problem for bottle samples. The low cost and convenience of the passive sampler and subsequent analysis should allow significantly more extensive spatial and temporal monitoring of metals in the aquatic environment than has previously been possible.     

河岸蜘蛛——多样水生生态系统中PCB污染的指示生物

栖息在河岸的蜘蛛越来越多地被用来追踪水生生态系统中存在和流出污染物的空间格局。然而,我们对蜘蛛在何种情况下可有效标志水生污染的认识有限。本研究力证在具有高生境异质性的水生生态系统中,能够有效地利用河岸蜘蛛来追踪沉积物中多氯联苯(PCBs)污染的空间格局。2011年到2013年,在五大湖共同关注区(AOC)的Manistique河流域,对2类常见科属的河岸蜘蛛进行采样,结果表明生物体内的ΣPCB浓度的空间格局能够普遍地追踪采样点范围内沉积物中ΣPCBs的空间变化。该研究区域位于密歇根北部半岛南岸(Manistique,MI,US),是一个河口生态系统,包括港口、河流、回水和湖泊等栖息地。沉积物ΣPCB浓度用总有机碳浓度进行归一,解释了11个采样点中41%的以脂类归一的蜘蛛ΣPCB浓度变异。此外,2类常见河岸蜘蛛类群(园蛛科Araneidae和长脚蛛科Tetragnathidae)的ΣPCB浓度高度相关(r² > 0.78),并且按全年计算其平均ΣPCB浓度两者相似。结果表明,在异质性的水生生态系统中,例如在河流入海口,会因为栖息地和污染物变化在水生生物分类中的差别不明显,河岸蜘蛛就可能成为水生和河岸食物网中PCB有效性的标记物。此外,对于为不同种群大型结网蜘蛛提供生存条件的海岸线开发和沿岸植被的生境异质性,目前的方法具有很强的适用性。
精选自Kraus, J. M., Gibson, P. P., Walters, D. M. and Mills, M. A. (2017), Riparian spiders as sentinels of polychlorinated biphenyl contamination across heterogeneous aquatic ecosystems. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry, 36: 1278–1286. doi: 10.1002/etc.3658
详情请见http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/etc.3658/full
     

Can level of safety climate predict level of orientation toward safety in a decision making task?

Establishing the relationship between level of safety climate and safety performance is a current challenge. This work examines the relationship between level of safety climate and orientation toward safety in the decision making process and choice. Alternatively, this work seeks to answer the question of whether level of safety climate can predict safety-oriented decision making. A generalized safety climate questionnaire and a decision making simulation are utilized to examine this relationship. The results indicate that level of safety climate is not a significant predictor of the decision process; however, it was found to be a significant predictor of the selection of safer choices.     

Effects of ozone on inter- and intra-species competition and photosynthesis in mesocosms of Lolium perenne and Trifolium repens

Trifolium repens and Lolium perenne were exposed as both monocultures and two-species mixtures to an episodic rural ozone regime in large, well-watered containers within solardomes for 12 weeks. There were reductions in biomass for T. repens, but not L. perenne, and the proportion of T. repens decreased in ozone-exposed mixtures compared to the control. In addition, leaf biomass of T. repens was maintained at the expense of biomass partitioning to the stolons. The decreased growth corresponded with decreased photosynthetic capacity for T. repens, however, by the end of the exposure there was also decreased photosynthetic capacity of L. perenne, a species previously considered insensitive to ozone. The observed decreases in photosynthetic efficiency and capacity in elevated ozone indicate that the ability of such ubiquitous vegetation to act as a sink for atmospheric carbon may be reduced in future climates.     

Effects of Water Withdrawal From Ice‐Covered Lakes on Oxygen,Temperature, and Fish1

Abstract: In northern regions, large volumes of water are needed for activities such as winter road construction. Such withdrawals, particularly from small lakes, can reduce oxygen concentrations and water levels, potentially affecting aquatic organisms. Withdrawal limits have been developed by regulatory agencies, but are largely theoretical. Water withdrawal thresholds were tested in two small lakes by removing 10% and 20% of their respective under‐ice volumes and comparing oxygen parameters, temperature, over‐wintering habitat, and northern pike (Esox lucius) abundance to reference conditions. Because of a milder winter, oxygen parameters were elevated in reference lakes in the period following withdrawal compared to the prewithdrawal period. The 10% withdrawal resulted in a ?0.2 m shift in the oxygen concentration profile at 4 mg/l in that lake, but had no effect on total volume‐weighted oxygen, or volume of over‐wintering habitat. In contrast, the 20% withdrawal caused 0.7 m reduction in the oxygen concentration profile at 4 mg/l compared to the previous year, a 26% decline in the volume‐weighted oxygen concentration, and a 23% reduction in the volume of over‐wintering habitat compared to prewithdrawal conditions. Water temperatures were slightly (≤ 10%) colder in the upper strata in the year following the withdrawal in both withdrawal and reference lakes. Northern pike abundance was not impacted by water withdrawals in either of the lakes. The results of this study show that the effects of water withdrawal on the parameters investigated reflected the characteristics of the lakes, and would therefore be expected to vary from lake to lake. Policy development to mitigate impacts must therefore reflect the site‐specific nature of water withdrawal.