Synergisms between climate change mitigation and adaptation: an insurance perspective

As the world’s largest industry, the insurance sector is both an aggregator of the impacts of climate change and a market actor able to play a material role in decreasing the vulnerability of human and natural systems. This article reviews the implications of climate change for insurers and provides specific examples of insurance-relevant synergisms between adaptation and mitigation in the buildings and energy sectors, agriculture, forestry, and land use. Although insurance is far from a “silver bullet” in addressing climate change, it offers significant capacity and ability to understand, manage, and spread risks associated with weather-related events, more so today in industrialized countries but increasingly so in developing countries and economies in transition. Certain measures that integrate climate change mitigation and adaptation also bolster insurers’ solvency and profitability, thereby increasing their appeal. Promising strategies involve innovative products and systems for delivering insurance and the use of new technologies and practices that both reduce vulnerability to disaster-related losses and support sustainable development. However, climate change promises to erode the insurability of many risks, and insurance responses can be more reactive than proactive, resulting in compromised insurance affordability and/or availability. Public–private partnerships involving insurers and entities such as the international relief community offer considerable potential, but have not been adequately explored.

Analysis of precipitation-related motor vehicle collision and injury risk using insurance and police record information for Winnipeg, Canada

Introduction

Police records are the most common source of data used to estimate motor-vehicle collision risks, understand causal or contributing factors, and evaluate the efficacy of interventions. The literature notes concerns about this information citing discrepancies between police reports and other sources of injury occurrence and severity data. The primary objective of the analysis was to assess the adequacy of police reports for an examination of weather-related injury collision risk.

Method

Analyses of relative risk were carried out using both police records and comprehensive insurance claim data for Winnipeg, Canada over the period 1999-2001.

Results and conclusions

Both data sets yielded very similar results—precipitation substantially increases the risk of injury collision (police records: RR 1.76, CI 1.55-2.00; insurance: RR 1.80, CI 1.62-1.99) and risk of injury (police records, RR 1.74, CI 1.55-1.96; insurance, RR 1.69, CI 1.55-1.85) relative to corresponding dry weather control periods. Both rainfall and snowfall were associated with large increases in collisions and injuries.

Impact on Industry

While relative risks are almost identical, over 64% more injury collisions and 74% more injuries were identified using the insurance data, which is an important difference for evaluating absolute risk and exposure.     

PC proxy: a method for dynamical tracer reconstruction

A detailed development of the principal component proxy method of dynamical tracer reconstruction is presented, including error analysis. The method works by correlating the largest principal components of a matrix representation of the transport dynamics with a set of sparse measurements. The Lyapunov spectrum was measured and used to quantify the lifetime of each principal component. The method was tested on the 500 K isentropic surface with stratospheric ozone concentration measurements from the Polar Aerosol and Ozone Measurement III satellite instrument during October and November 1998 and compared with the older proxy tracer method which works by correlating measurements with a single other tracer or proxy. Using a 60 day integration time and five (5) principal components, cross validation of globally reconstructed ozone and comparison with ozone sondes returned root-mean-square errors of 0.16 and 0.36 ppmv, respectively. This compares favourably with the classic proxy tracer method in which a passive tracer equivalent latitude field was used for the proxy and which returned RMS errors of 0.22 and 0.59 ppmv for cross-validation and sonde validation respectively. The method seems especially effective for shorter lived tracers and was far more accurate than the classic method at predicting ozone concentration in the Southern hemisphere over the same time period. It is also more effective when reconstruction is performed over the entire Earth rather than a single hemisphere allowing for seamless reconstruction of global fields.     

Reliability of Conservation Actions Based on Elasticity Analysis of Matrix Models

Abstract: Matrix population models have entered the mainstream of conservation biology, with analysis of proportional sensitivities (elasticity analysis) of demographic rates becoming important components of conservation decision making. We identify areas where management applications using elasticity analysis potentially conflict with the mathematical basis of the technique, and we use a hypothetical example and three real data sets (Prairie Chicken [   Tympanuchus cupido ], desert tortoise [ Gopherus agassizii ], and killer whale [ Orcinus orca ]) to evaluate the extent to which conservation recommendations based on elasticities might be misleading. First, changes in one demographic rate can change the qualitative ranking of the elasticity values calculated from a population matrix, a result that dampens enthusiasm for ranking conservation actions based solely on which rates have the highest elasticity values. Second, although elasticities often provide accurate predictions of future changes in population growth rate under management perturbations that are large or that affect more than one rate concurrently, concordance frequently fails when different rates vary by different amounts. In particular, when vital rates change to their high or low values observed in nature, predictions of future growth rate based on elasticities of a mean matrix can be misleading, even predicting population increase when the population growth rate actually declines following a perturbation. Elasticity measures will continue to be useful tools for applied ecologists, but they should be interpreted with considerable care. We suggest that studies using analytical elasticity analysis explicitly consider the range of variation possible for different rates and that simulation methods are a useful tool to this end.     

Relationship between conservation biology and ecology shown through machine reading of 32,000 articles

Conservation biology was founded on the idea that efforts to save nature depend on a scientific understanding of how it works. It sought to apply ecological principles to conservation problems. We investigated whether the relationship between these fields has changed over time through machine reading the full texts of 32,000 research articles published in 16 ecology and conservation biology journals. We examined changes in research topics in both fields and how the fields have evolved from 2000 to 2014. As conservation biology matured, its focus shifted from ecology to social and political aspects of conservation. The 2 fields diverged and now occupy distinct niches in modern science. We hypothesize this pattern resulted from increasing recognition that social, economic, and political factors are critical for successful conservation and possibly from rising skepticism about the relevance of contemporary ecological theory to practical conservation.     

Assessment of the abiotic transformation of 17β-estradiol in the presence of vegetable matter

A study using 17β-¹⁴C₄-estradiol (¹⁴C-E2) was performed to confirm and characterize the catalytic transformation of estrogens in the presence of a model vegetable matter (namely rabbit food) as a surrogate material for vegetable wastes found in sewage. Results corroborated the occurrence of an abiotic transformation. Unknown transformation byproduct(s) accounted, respectively, for 38% and 9% of the initial radioactivity in liquid and extractable solid phases after 72 h; on the other hand, only 15% and 7% of this radioactivity corresponded to ¹⁴C-E2 in those same matrices. Mass balance was closed including the radioactivity irreversibly bounded to the solid phase. Formation of ¹⁴C₄-estrone was monitored by Liquid Chromatography with tandem Mass Spectrometry detection; negative results were found in all sampling events. This process could be harnessed to optimize sustainable technologies for the removal of phenolic microcontaminants from wastewater.     

Nitrogen concentrations in mosses indicate the spatial distribution of atmospheric nitrogen deposition in Europe

In 2005/6, nearly 3000 moss samples from (semi-)natural location across 16 European countries were collected for nitrogen analysis. The lowest total nitrogen concentrations in mosses (<0.8%) were observed in northern Finland and northern UK. The highest concentrations (≥1.6%) were found in parts of Belgium, France, Germany, Slovakia, Slovenia and Bulgaria. The asymptotic relationship between the nitrogen concentrations in mosses and EMEP modelled nitrogen deposition (averaged per 50 km × 50 km grid) across Europe showed less scatter when there were at least five moss sampling sites per grid. Factors potentially contributing to the scatter are discussed. In Switzerland, a strong (r² = 0.91) linear relationship was found between the total nitrogen concentration in mosses and measured site-specific bulk nitrogen deposition rates. The total nitrogen concentrations in mosses complement deposition measurements, helping to identify areas in Europe at risk from high nitrogen deposition at a high spatial resolution.     

Environmental & economic life cycle assessment of current & future sewage sludge to energy technologies

The UK Water Industry currently generates approximately 800 GW h pa of electrical energy from sewage sludge. Traditionally energy recovery from sewage sludge features Anaerobic Digestion (AD) with biogas utilisation in combined heat and power (CHP) systems. However, the industry is evolving and a number of developments that extract more energy from sludge are either being implemented or are nearing full scale demonstration. This study compared five technology configurations: 1 – conventional AD with CHP, 2 – Thermal Hydrolysis Process (THP) AD with CHP, 3 – THP AD with bio-methane grid injection, 4 – THP AD with CHP followed by drying of digested sludge for solid fuel production, 5 – THP AD followed by drying, pyrolysis of the digested sludge and use of the both the biogas and the pyrolysis gas in a CHP.The economic and environmental Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) found that both the post AD drying options performed well but the option used to create a solid fuel to displace coal (configuration 4) was the most sustainable solution economically and environmentally, closely followed by the pyrolysis configuration (5). Application of THP improves the financial and environmental performance compared with conventional AD. Producing bio-methane for grid injection (configuration 3) is attractive financially but has the worst environmental impact of all the scenarios, suggesting that the current UK financial incentive policy for bio-methane is not driving best environmental practice. It is clear that new and improving processes and technologies are enabling significant opportunities for further energy recovery from sludge; LCA provides tools for determining the best overall options for particular situations and allows innovation resources and investment to be focused accordingly.     

To the bottom of the heart: cloacal movement as an index of cardiac frequency, respiration and digestive evacuation in penguins

A system is presented which uses a Hall sensor and an adjacent magnet, attached close to the cloaca of penguins, to record defecation, respiration and heart rates for both free-living birds and those in captivity. The output of the Hall sensor depends on a magnetic field, the strength of which is influenced in the presented scenario by the proximity of the magnet, which varies with movement of the cloaca. The elasticity of the cloaca results in minute, but perceptible, movements associated with the heart, respiration and defecation, although placement of the magnet and sensor is critical, and not all parameters can be measured all of the time. The system, incorporating a logger that can record at frequencies of 50 Hz, was tested on 17 captive and 4 free-living Magellanic penguins, Spheniscus magellanicus, in Argentina. It showed increased defecation rate associated with feeding, the expected trends in bradycardia and tachycardia associated with diving, and appeared to record some movement of air sacs associated with breathing. The concept of measuring minute changes in relative exterior body positions as a cue to internal processes may be important in future studies for both free-living and captive animals, particularly since it is non-invasive and relatively easy to deploy.Communicated by O. Kinne, Oldendorf/Luhe