Reassessment of the Cross-Florida Barge Canal: A probability approach

This reassessment of the Corps of Engineers' study of the Cross-Florida Canal demonstrates the application of the Weibull probability distribution to handle uncertainty in benefit-cost analysis and illustrates the distribution's use to incorporate environmental considerations in project analysis. With range and probability assumptions to reflect the criticisms of the Corps' study, it is shown that the Canal was a high-risk project even with the inappropriately low discount rate used. Use of the Weibull distribution is shown to be superior to the usual point estimates and range sensitivity tests in benefit-cost analysis.     

Deposition and solubility of airborne metals to four plant species grown at varying distances from two heavily trafficked roads in London

In urban areas, a highly variable mixture of pollutants is deposited as particulate matter. The concentration and bioavailability of individual pollutants within particles need to be characterised to ascertain the risks to ecological receptors. This study, carried out at two urban parks, measured the deposition and water-solubility of metals to four species common to UK urban areas. Foliar Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Ni, Pb and Zn concentrations were elevated in at least one species compared with those from a rural control site. Concentrations were, however, only affected by distance to road in nettle and, to a lesser extent, birch leaves. Greater concentrations of metal were observed in these species compared to cypress and maple possibly due to differences in plant morphology and leaf surfaces. Solubility appeared to be linked to the size fraction and, therefore, origin of the metal with those present predominantly in the coarse fraction exhibiting low solubility.     

A dispersal-constrained habitat suitability model for predicting invasion of alpine vegetation

Developing tools to predict the location of new biological invasions is essential if exotic species are to be controlled before they become widespread. Currently, alpine areas in Australia are largely free of exotic plant species but face increasing pressure from invasive species due to global warming and intensified human use. To predict the potential spread of highly invasive orange hawkweed (Hieracium aurantiacum) from existing founder populations on the Bogong High Plains in southern Australia, we developed an expert-based, spatially explicit, dispersal-constrained, habitat suitability model. The model combines a habitat suitability index, developed from disturbance, site wetness, and vegetation community parameters, with a phenomenological dispersal kernel that uses wind direction and observed dispersal distances. After generating risk maps that defined the relative suitability of H. aurantiacum establishment across the study area, we intensively searched several locations to evaluate the model. The highest relative suitability for H. aurantiacum establishment was southeast from the initial infestations. Native tussock grasslands and disturbed areas had high suitability for H. aurantiacum establishment. Extensive field searches failed to detect new populations. Time-step evaluation using the location of populations known in 1998-2000, accurately assigned high relative suitability for locations where H. aurantiacum had established post-2003 (AUC [area under curve] = 0.855 +/- 0.035). This suggests our model has good predictive power and will improve the ability to detect populations and prioritize areas for ongoing monitoring.     

Reproductive Success in Reestablished versus Natural Populations of a Threatened Grassland Daisy (Rutidosis leptorrhynchoides)

Abstract: Populations of the endangered Rutidosis leptorrhynchoides (Asteraceae) have been reestablished in conservation reserves to reduce their risk of extinction in the wild. The reproductive success (number of seeds per inflorescence, percent seed set, germinability) of five small reestablished populations (at 5–10 years after establishment) was compared to that of two large natural remnant populations from which they were derived. Initial growth rates under glasshouse conditions were compared for seedlings derived from seed from remnant and reestablished populations. Seed set per inflorescence in all five reestablished populations was equal to or greater than seed set in remnant population plants. The resulting seed was as germinable, and in some cases more germinable, than seed derived from remnant populations; the seedlings then grew as large or larger than remnant population seedlings grown under glasshouse conditions. Fitness reductions in small reestablished populations of R. leptorrhynchoides are not evident at the reproductive stage. Hence, these populations have some potential to maintain natural regeneration processes and might therefore positively contribute to the conservation of this species.     

An Evaluation of the Tapered Element Oscillating Microbalance Method for Measuring Diesel Particulate Emissions

Abstract

We determined the usefulness of tapered element oscillating microbalances (TEOMs) for researchers and engineers involved with measuring diesel particulate mass. Two different test facilities were used for generating diesel particulates and comparing the TEOM to the commonly used U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) manual filter method. The EPA method is very labor-intensive and requires long periods of time to complete. The TEOM is an attractive approach because it has the potential to reduce the amount of time and labor required in diesel testing, as well as to provide real-time particulate-mass data that are not obtainable with the EPA method. It was found that the TEOM was a precise and easy-to-operate instrument that could measure the mass concentration (MC) of diesel particulate emissions in real time. Although the TEOM diesel particulate MC measurements were highly correlated with the manual filter measurements, the two techniques were not equivalent because the TEOM consistently reported MC results that were 20–25% lower than those obtained using the manual filter technique. In conclusion, the TEOM can be used to increase test-cell throughput and to measure transient values of diesel par-ticulate emissions at sites performing diesel-engine testing. However, unless EPA is able to certify the TEOM as an equivalent method, it cannot replace the manual filter method for diesel certification work.     

THE EFFICIENCY OF WATER PRICING: A RATE OF RETURN ANALYSIS FOR MUNICIPAL WATER DEPARTMENTS1

ABSTRACT: The rate of return on invested capital can be used as a guide to resource allocation by municipal water departments (MWD's) in the same way it is used in the private sector. To achieve economic efficiency, the target rate of return for MWD's should be the market rate of return as an approximation to the opportunity cost of capital. The actual internal rate of return for a sample of 30 California MWD's for the period 1970-1982 is calculated for this study. The operating internal rate of return varies across the sample MWD's from less than 2 percent to 14 percent. If 10 percent is taken as the opportunity cost of capital, 25 of the 30 MWD's were inefficient; i.e., earned less than 10 percent. Half the sample earned less than 5 percent. An examination of potential causes of low rates of return shows that low average water prices are the primary reason for the low rates of return. For efficient operation, MWD's should set a target rate of return equal to the opportunity cost of capital and adjust water prices so as to achieve that target.