Probabilistic impacts of climate change on flood frequency using response surfaces II: Scotland

This paper uses a sensitivity framework approach to look at the probabilistic impacts of climate change on 20-year return period flood peaks, by applying a set of typical response surfaces alongside the probabilistic UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) for 10 river-basin regions over Scotland. The first paper of the pair used the same approach for 10 river-basin regions over England and Wales. This paper develops the methodology for Scotland, by first enabling better estimation of the response type of Scottish catchments. Then, as for England and Wales, the potential range of impacts is shown for different types of catchment in each river-basin region in Scotland, and regional average impact ranges are estimated. Results show clear differences in impacts between catchments of different types and between regions. The Argyll and West Highland regions show the highest impacts, while the North-East Scotland region shows the lowest impacts. The overall ranges are generally smaller for Scotland than England and Wales.     

Projecting current and potential future distribution of the Fire-bellied toad Bombina bombina under climate change in north-eastern Germany

Environmental change is likely to have a strong impact on biodiversity, and many species may shift their distribution in response. In this study, we aimed at projecting the availability of suitable habitat for an endangered amphibian species, the Fire-bellied toad Bombina bombina, in Brandenburg (north-eastern Germany). We modelled a potential habitat distribution map based on (1) a database with 10,581 presence records for Bombina from the years 1990 to 2009, (2) current estimates for ecogeographical variables (EGVs) and (3) the future projection of these EGVs according to the statistical regional model, respectively, the soil and water integrated model, applying the maximum entropy approach (Maxent). By comparing current and potential future distributions, we evaluated the projected change in distribution of suitable habitats and identified the environmental variables most associated with habitat suitability that turned out to be climatic variables related to the hydrological cycle. Under the applied scenario, our results indicate increasing habitat suitability in many areas and an extended range of suitable habitats. However, even if the environmental conditions in Brandenburg may change as predicted, it is questionable whether the Fire-bellied toad will truly benefit, as dispersal abilities of amphibian species are limited and strongly influenced by anthropogenic disturbances, that is, intensive agriculture, habitat destruction and fragmentation. Furthermore, agronomic pressure is likely to increase on productive areas with fertile soils and high water retention capacities, indeed those areas suitable for B. bombina. All these changes may affect temporary pond hydrology as well as the reproductive success and breeding phenology of toads.     

Framing the flood: a media analysis of themes of resilience in the 2011 Brisbane flood

In the wake of the flood that affected Brisbane, Australia, in January 2011, public attention turned to the causes of the event and lessons for minimizing the impacts of future floods. The news media was an important vehicle for understanding and internalizing the 2011 Brisbane flood. Examining how the flood was framed in the media is, therefore, useful to understand broad public perception of floods. We undertook a systematic newspaper analysis during a one-year period to explore media framings of the flood, focused on learning as an aspect of resilience in relation to two themes: (1) perceived links between the flood and climate change and (2) perceived roles of government in managing the flood. We show that media coverage of the flood reinforces aspects of resilience by acknowledging community spirit, self-reliance and the importance of sharing experiences for learning; articulating the risk of extreme events in a changing climate; and highlighting regional management trade-offs. Much of the discourse is likely to inhibit resilience, however, by casting the flood in terms of blame and political opportunity and paying inadequate attention to longer-term aspects of regional resilience. The limited learning observed to date may highlight a need for other mechanisms and actors to lead learning processes. As policy related to the 2011 Brisbane flood, and extreme events more generally, is influenced by the public discourse, it is important to understand the nuances of communication around these events and the media’s role in reinforcing or changing perceptions.     

Socio-cultural valuation of ecosystem services in a transhumance social-ecological network

The ecosystem services framework is receiving increasing attention in the fields of policy and research. The assessment of human attitudes and perceptions regarding ecosystem services has been proposed as a promising tool for addressing complex problems associated with environmental change, particularly in the context of cultural landscapes. Transhumance is not only a farming practice responsible for shaping cultural landscapes but also an adaptive strategy based on mobility that may represent a useful approach to overcoming the growing challenges posed by accelerated environmental change. A socio-cultural valuation of ecosystem services associated with the Conquense Drove Road, one of the major transhumant networks still in use in Mediterranean Spain, was conducted via the distribution of questionnaires to 416 local residents and visitors to capture their perceptions regarding the importance of 34 ecosystem services (10 provisioning, 12 regulating, and 12 cultural) for both social and personal well-being. Overall, the ecosystem services considered to be the most important for social well-being were fire prevention, air purification and livestock. Most of the ecosystem services in question were perceived as declining, with the exception of those associated with recreation, scientific knowledge and environmental education. This study revealed that perceptions regarding the value of ecosystem services differed among respondents, depending on their age, place of origin and gender. Several methodological issues, as well as the implications of socio-cultural valuation for policy making, are also discussed here.     

Plant species richness of riverbed elevations—the Pripyat river valley case study

Flora of the still unchanged or slightly modified floodplains is particularly valuable. Such are the natural, periodically flooded riparian ecosystems within the Mid-Pripyat river valley in Belarus. Distinctive elements of that area are ‘periodic islands’, which arise from the most elevated parts of the riverbed during flooding and have a specific microtopography. The aim of the research was to recognize floristic composition and ecological conditions of the ‘islands.’ Noted plants were mainly photophilous, by clearly varied in soil moisture, acidity and fertility requirements.     

Composition and quantification of the anthropogenic and natural fractions of wastes collected from the stormwater drainage system for discussions about the waste management and people behavior

A study was made of the composition of wastes collected from the pipes of the stormwater drainage system of Sorocaba, SP, Brazil (600 thousand inhabitants). A total of 10 samples weighing at least 100 kg each were sorted into 19 items to determine the fraction that can be considered natural (earth/sand, stones, organic matter, and water, the latter determined after oven-drying the samples) and the anthropogenic fraction (the remaining 15 items, especially construction and demolition wastes and packaging). Soil/sand was found to be the main item collected (52.5 % dry weight), followed by the water soaked into the waste (24.3 %), which meant that all the other wastes were saturated in mud, whose contents varied from 6.4 % (glass) to 87.2 % (metalized plastics packaging). In general, 83 % of the collected wastes can be classified as “natural,” but the remaining 17 % represent 2,000 kg of the most varied types of wastes discarded improperly every day on the streets of the city. This is an alarming amount of wastes that may clog parts of the drainage systems, causing troubles for all the population (like flooding) and must be strongly considered in municipal solid wastes management and in environmental education programs.     

The influence of socioeconomic, environmental, and demographic factors on municipality-scale land-cover change in Mexico

Land-cover change is the result of complex multi-scale interactions between socioeconomic, demographic, and environmental factors. Demographic change, in particular, is thought to be a major driver of forest change. Most studies have evaluated these interactions at the regional or the national level, but few studies have evaluated these dynamics across multiple spatial scales within a country. In this study, we evaluated the effect of demographic, environmental, and socioeconomic variables on land-cover change between 2001 and 2010 for all Mexican municipalities (n?=?2,443) as well as by biome (n?=?4). We used a land-cover classification based on 250-m MODIS data to examine the change in cover classes (i.e., woody, mixed woody, and agriculture/herbaceous vegetation). We evaluated the trends of land-cover change and identified the major factors correlated with woody vegetation change in Mexico. At the national scale, the variation in woody vegetation was best explained by environmental variables, particularly precipitation; municipalities where woody cover increased tended to be in areas with low average annual precipitation (i.e., desert and dry forest biomes). Demographic variables did not contribute much to the model at the national scale. Elevation, temperature, and population density explained the change in woody cover when municipalities were grouped by biome (i.e., moist forest, dry forest, coniferous forest, and deserts). Land-cover change at the biome level showed two main trends: (1) the tropical moist biome lost woody vegetation to agriculture and herbaceous vegetation, and (2) the desert biome increased in woody vegetation within more open-canopy shrublands.     

The living environment and children's fears following the Indonesian tsunami

The tsunami that struck South-east Asia on 26 December 2004 left more than 500,000 people in Aceh, Indonesia, homeless and displaced to temporary barracks and other communities. This study examines the associations between prolonged habitation in barracks and the nature of fears reported by school-age children and adolescents. In mid-2007, 30 months after the tsunami, the authors interviewed 155 child and parent dyads. Logistic regression analysis was used to compare the fears reported by children and adolescents living in barracks with those reported by their peers who were living in villages. After adjusting for demographic factors and tsunami exposure, the data reveals that children and adolescents living in barracks were three times more likely than those living in villages to report tsunami-related fears. The study demonstrates that continued residence in barracks 30 months after the tsunami is associated with higher rates of reporting tsunami-related fears, suggesting that barracks habitation has had a significant impact on the psychological experience of children and adolescents since the tsunami.     

Inequalities in exposure and awareness of flood risk in England and Wales

This paper explores the environmental inequalities of living in the floodplains of England and Wales and the differences in flood awareness of those 'at risk'. An area comparison is made between an etic, objective flood risk exposure, and an emic, subjective perception of that risk by social class. In all areas except the Midlands, the working classes were more likely to reside in the floodplains; the greatest exposure inequality is seen in the North East and Anglian regions. Flood awareness in the Anglian regions was much lower than average, but there were no significant class differences. In the Thames region, despite equal flood risk exposure between classes, the most deprived displayed the least awareness of flood risk. In the North East, inequalities in the distribution of flood risk exposure accompanied inequalities in perception, resulting in the least aware and most deprived experiencing the greatest flood risk.