Consumption in relation to population,environment and development

The Earth has enough for everyone's need but not for everyone's greed. (Gandhi, 1947). A statement made when the world's population was 45% and global consumption was 25--30% of today's figures.The triad of problems, population, environment and development, is now being joined by a fourth, consumption. In many respects this could prove to be the least tractable of the four interlinked problems, since consumption patterns and expectations are deeply entrenched in most societies and cultures. However, change will come, whether by design or by default. The present consumption--or rather, excessive and wasteful consumption--on the part of rich nations cannot be sustained for environmental reasons alone, as exemplified by the fossil fuel/carbon dioxide connection to global warming. Nor can the present consumption in developing nations--meagre as these levels are for the 3 billion people who account for only 5% of the global economy--climb to levels desired by many if only because of the sheer numbers of their potential consumers. At the same time, it is increasingly the case that in the food sector, as in certain other sectors, over-consumption among rich communities can lead to under-consumption among poor communities. Fortunately, there are many opportunities to relieve consumption pressures, whether through enhanced technology or shifts in lifestyles, both of which can be promoted by a variety of policy initiatives.     

Echelon approach to areas of concern in synoptic regional monitoring

Echelons provide an objective approach to prospecting for areas of potential concern in synoptic regional monitoring of a surface variable. Echelons can be regarded informally as stacked hill forms. The strategy is to identify regions of the surface which are elevated relative to surroundings (Relative ELEVATIONS or RELEVATIONS). These are areas which would continue to expand as islands with receding (virtual) floodwaters. Levels where islands would merge are critical elevations which delimit echelons in the vertical dimension. Families of echelons consist of surface sectors constituting separate islands for deeper waters that merge as water level declines. Pits which would hold water are disregarded in such a progression, but a complementary analysis of pits is obtained using the surface as a virtual mould to cast a counter-surface (bathymetric analysis). An echelon tree is a family tree of echelons with peaks as terminals and the lowest level as root. An echelon tree thus provides a dendrogram representation of surface topology which enables graph theoretic analysis and comparison of surface structures. Echelon top view maps show echelon cover sectors on the base plane. An echelon table summarizes characteristics of echelons as instances or cases of hill form surface structure. Determination of echelons requires only ordinal strength for the surface variable, and is thus appropriate for environmental indices as well as measurements. Since echelons are inherent in a surface rather than perceptual, they provide a basis for computer-intelligent understanding of surfaces. Echelons are given for broad-scale mammalian species richness in Pennsylvania.     

Blood lead levels and free red blood cell protoporphyrin as measure of lead exposure in mute swans

The use of blood lead levels in assessing lead exposure in mute swans, Cygnus olor (Gmelin) is investigated. 823 blood samples were taken from 456 uniquely ringed mute swans at a coarse-fish angling site over a period of 24 months. Blood lead values in individual swans monitored over several weeks were shown to conform to a recently reported kinetic model for blood lead values in birds. The highest median lead levels for flock birds were recorded in the winter and spring and the lowest during the summer moulting period. The use of Free Red Blood Cell Protoporphyrin for detecting lead exposure was examined. Whole blood lead detected 44% (n = 357) with elevated lead, while free red blood cell protoporphyrin detected 34.50%. In a large number of cases levels of protoporphyrin were above the normal level, while the corresponding lead levels were low. The value of both methods and the need to correct each value for haemoglobin is discussed.     

Finding upper-level sets in cellular surface data using echelons and saTScan

Across a spectrum of contemporary contexts from public health to landscape ecology and natural resources, there is need for objective determination of elevated occurrence in phenomena such as disease incidence and biodiversity. Occurrences of such phenomena constitute response surfaces, but data regarding the surface is typically acquired in a cellular framework. The cells may comprise a regular grid, or may be of irregular shapes such as counties in which statistics are collected. Echelons are a topologically based approach to systematic determination of spatial structure in a step surface. Spatial scan statistics are a probability-based approach to the same issue when interest lies in a rate variable. Here we examine the use of echelons both separately and in conjunction with the SaTScan implementation of spatial scan statistics for purposes of determination and visualization of upper-level sets. Consideration is given to both conventional geographic space and to the cellular pseudo-space of contingency tables for ordered categorical variables. Received: August 2002 / Revised: July 2005     

The influence of science on Canada's foreign policy on persistent organic pollutants (1985–2001)

The role of science in environmental foreign policymaking has received little attention in the international environmental politics literature, and systematic, in-depth case studies of the influence of science on environmental foreign policy with respect to persistent organic pollutants (POPs) are entirely missing. We present a case study of the influence of science on Canada's foreign policy on POPs from the discovery of the transboundary nature of the POPs problem around 1985 to the signing of the United Nations Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants in 2001. Influence was analyzed in terms of a knowledge–action methodology that focused on the types of scientific knowledge and the actions taken by scientists that were influential. Data were collected through interviews and extensive document analysis. We conclude that, while individual knowledge types and actions were influential during various periods (single-factor explanations), it was an increasingly layered and integrated “package” of knowledge types and actions, with human health impacts as its touchstone and partnering between scientists and non-scientists as its watchword, that propelled and sustained Canada's foreign policy on the POPs issue.     

Impacts of Human Behavioral Heterogeneity on the Benefits of Probabilistic Flood Warnings: An Agent‐Based Modeling Framework

Flood forecasts and warnings are intended to reduce flood‐related property damages and loss of human life. Considerable research has improved flood forecasting accuracy (e.g., more accurate prediction of the occurrence of flood events) and lead time. However, the delivery of improved forecast information alone is not necessarily sufficient to reduce flood damage and loss of life, as people have varying responses and reactions to flood warnings. This study develops an agent‐based modeling framework that evaluates the impacts of heterogeneity in human behaviors (i.e., variation in behaviors in response to flood warnings), as well as residential density, on the benefits of flood warnings. The framework is coupled with a traffic model to simulate evacuation processes within a road network under various flood warning scenarios. The results show the marginal benefit associated with providing better flood warnings is significantly constrained if people behave in a more risk‐tolerant manner, especially in high‐density residential areas. The results also show significant impacts of human behavioral heterogeneity on the benefits of flood warnings, and thus stress the importance of considering human behavioral heterogeneity in simulating flood warning‐response systems. Further study is suggested to more accurately model human responses and behavioral heterogeneity, as well as to include more attributes of residential areas to estimate and improve the benefits of flood warnings.     

The ozone formation potential of 1-bromo-propane

1-Bromo-propane (1-BP) is a replacement for high-end chlorofluorocarbon (HCFC) solvents. Its reaction rate constant with the OH radical is, on a weight basis, significantly less than that of ethane. However, the overall smog formation chemistry of 1-BP appears to be very unusual compared with typical volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and relatively complex because of the presence of bromine. In smog chamber experiments, 1-BP initially shows a faster ozone build-up than what would be expected from ethane, but the secondary products containing bromine tend to destroy ozone such that 1-BP can have a net overall negative reactivity. Alternative sets of reactions are offered to explain this unusual behavior. Follow-up studies are suggested to resolve the chemistry. Using one set of bromine-related reactions in a photochemical grid model shows that 1-BP would be less reactive toward peak ozone formation than ethane with a trend toward even lower ozone impacts in the future.     

Vegetative buffers for fan emissions from poultry farms: 2. ammonia,dust and foliar nitrogen

This study evaluated the potential of trees planted around commercial poultry farms to trap ammonia (NH₃) and dust or particulate matter (PM). Norway spruce, Spike hybrid poplar, hybrid willow, and Streamco purpleosier willow were planted on five commercial farms from 2003 to 2004. Plant foliage was sampled in front of the exhaust fans and at a control distance away from the fans on one turkey, two laying hen, and two broiler chicken farms between June and July 2006. Samples were analyzed for dry matter (DM), nitrogen (N), and PM content. In addition, NH₃ concentrations were measured downwind of the exhaust fans among the trees and at a control distance using NH₃ passive dosi–tubes. Foliage samples were taken and analyzed separately based on plant species. The two layer farms had both spruce and poplar plantings whereas the two broiler farms had hybrid willow and Streamco willow plantings which allowed sampling and species comparisons with the effect of plant location (control vs. fan). The results showed that NH₃ concentration h^{? 1} was reduced by distance from housing fans (P ≤ 0.0001), especially between 0 m (12.01 ppm), 11.4 m (2.59 ppm), 15 m (2.03 ppm), and 30 m (0.31 ppm). Foliar N of plants near the fans was greater than those sampled away from the fans for poplar (3.87 vs. 2.56%; P ≤ 0.0005) and hybrid willow (3.41 vs. 3.02%; P ≤ 0.05). The trends for foliar N in spruce (1.91 vs. 1.77%; P = 0.26) and Streamco willow (3.85 vs. 3.33; P = 0.07) were not significant. Pooling results of the four plant species indicated greater N concentration from foliage sampled near the fans than of that away from the fans (3.27 vs. 2.67%; P ≤ 0.0001). Foliar DM concentration was not affected by plant location, and when pooled the foliar DM of the four plant species near the fans was 51.3% in comparison with 48.5% at a control distance. There was a significant effect of plant location on foliar N and DM on the two layer farms with greater N and DM adjacent to fans than at a control distance (2.95 vs. 2.15% N and 45.4 vs. 38.2% DM, respectively). There were also significant plant species effects on foliar N and DM with poplar retaining greater N (3.22 vs. 1.88%) and DM (43.7 vs. 39.9%) than spruce. The interaction of location by species (P ≤ 0.005) indicated that poplar was more responsive in terms of foliar N, but less responsive for DM than spruce. The effect of location and species on foliar N and DM were not clear among the two willow species on the broiler farms. Plant location had no effect on plant foliar PM weight, but plant species significantly influenced the ability of the plant foliage to trap PM with spruce and hybrid willow showing greater potential than poplar and Streamco willow for PM_2.5(0.0054, 0.0054, 0.0005, and 0.0016 mg cm^{? 2}; P ≤ 0.05) and total PM (0.0309, 0.0102, 0.0038, and 0.0046 mg cm^{? 2}, respectively; P ≤ 0.001). Spruce trapped more dust compared to the other three species (hybrid willow, poplar, and Streamco willow) for PM₁₀ (0.0248 vs. 0.0036 mg cm^{? 2}; P ≤ 0.0001) and PM_{> 10} (0.0033 vs. 0.0003 mg cm^{? 2}; P = 0.052). This study indicates that poplar, hybrid willow, and Streamco willow are appropriate species to absorb poultry house aerial NH₃–N, whereas spruce and hybrid willow are effective traps for dust and its associated odors.