COMPARISON OF PROCESS‐BASED AND ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK APPROACHES FOR STREAMFLOW MODELING IN AN AGRICULTURAL WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: The performance of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and artificial neural network (ANN) models in simulating hydrologic response was assessed in an agricultural watershed in southeastern Pennsylvania. All of the performance evaluation measures including Nash‐Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (E) and coefficient of determination (R²) suggest that the ANN monthly predictions were closer to the observed flows than the monthly predictions from the SWAT model. More specifically, monthly streamflow E and R² were 0.54 and 0.57, respectively, for the SWAT model calibration period, and 0.71 and 0.75, respectively, for the ANN model training period. For the validation period, these values were ?0.17 and 0.34 for the SWAT and 0.43 and 0.45 for the ANN model. SWAT model performance was affected by snowmelt events during winter months and by the model's inability to adequately simulate base flows. Even though this and other studies using ANN models suggest that these models provide a viable alternative approach for hydrologic and water quality modeling, ANN models in their current form are not spatially distributed watershed modeling systems. However, considering the promising performance of the simple ANN model, this study suggests that the ANN approach warrants further development to explicitly address the spatial distribution of hydrologic/water quality processes within watersheds.     

WEST AFRICA: VOLTA DISCHARGE DATA QUALITY ASSESSMENT AND USE1

ABSTRACT: Water resource management in West Africa is often a complicated process due to inadequate resources, climatic extremes, and insufficient hydrological information. Insufficient data hinder sustainable watershed management practices, one of the top priorities in the Volta River Basin. This research properly fills in missing data by modeling the hydrological distribution in the Volta River Basin. On average, discharge gages across the basin are missing 20 percent of their monthly data over 20 years. Two methods were used to supplement missing data: a statistically linear model and a conceptual hydrological model. A linear equation, developed from the regression of precipitation and runoff, was used to evaluate the quality of existing data. The hydrological model separates the system into root and groundwater zones. Measured values were used to calibrate the hydrological model and to validate the statistical model. The quality of existing data was analyzed and organized for usability. Accuracy of the hydrological model was also evaluated for its effectiveness using R² and standard error. It was found that the hydrological model was an improvement from the linear model on a monthly basis; R² values improved by as much as 0.5 and monthly error decreased. Monthly predictions of the hydrological model were used to fill gaps of measured data sets.     

EMPIRICAL MODELING OF HYDROLOGIC AND NFS POLLUTANT FLUX IN AN URBANIZING BASIN1

ABSTRACT: Long term effects of precipitation and land use/land cover on basin outflow and nonpoint source (NFS) pollutant flux are presented for up to 24 years for a rapidly developing headwater basin and three adjacent headwater basins on the urban fringe of Washington, D.C. Regression models are developed to describe the annual and seasonal responses of basin outflow and IMPS pollutant flux to precipitation, mean impervious surface (IS), and land use. To quantify annual change in mean IS, a variable called delta IS is created as a temporal indicator of urban soil disturbance. Hydrologic models indicate that total annual surface outflow is significantly associated with precipitation and mean IS (r²= 0.65). Seasonal hydrologic models reveal that basin outflow is positively associated with IS during the summer and fall growing season (June to November). NPS pollutant flux models indicate that total and storm total suspended solids (TSS) flux are significantly associated with precipitation and urban soil disturbance in all seasons. Annual NPS total nitrogen flux is significantly associated with both urban and agricultural soil disturbance (r²= 0.51). Seasonal models of phosphorus flux indicate a significant association of total phosphorus flux with urban soil disturbance during the growing season. Total soluble phosphorus (TSP) flux is significantly associated with IS (r²= 0.34) and urban and agricultural soil disturbance (r²= 0.58). In urbanizing Cub Run basin, annual TSP concentrations are significantly associated with IS and cultivated agriculture (r²= 0.51).     

Designating Air Quality Management Areas (AQMAs) in the UK Implications for Securing UK Air Quality Objectives

Across the United Kingdom, the majority of local authoritieshave now completed their first phase of local air qualityreview and assessment work, as required under the AirQuality Strategy for England, Scotland, Wales and NorthernIreland (DETR, 2000a). Emerging from this first phasework is an anticipated suite of over 110 Air QualityManagement Areas (AQMAs). These areas are identifiedlocations where one or more of the national air qualityobjectives are predicted to exceed by specific target dates,and their spatial extent and shape is emerging as highlyvariable. Local authorities are guided to use a variety ofscientific tools to underpin the scientific assessments, anda consideration of uncertainty in both the tools used andsubsequent delineation of AQMAs is likely to affect theemerging management areas significantly. With subsidiarity underpinning the process of local air qualitymanagement (LAQM), local decision-making is anticipated toinfluence the outcome of the LAQM process in its entirety,with the declaration of AQMAs necessitating the preparationand implementation of air quality action plans. UKexperience of the effective management of local air quality,through the designation of AQMAs, demonstrates a valuableframework for other European countries developing mechanismsto manage air quality locally.     

Integrated Assessment of Air Pollution Abatement Strategies in Urban Areas: Application to the Greater Athens Area

This paper presents an integrated system for the assessmentof technical and non-technical measures that are putforward in order to reduce air pollution levels in urbanareas. In contrast to the majority of the currentlyemployed assessment tools, this system allows for theevaluation of any proposed air pollution control measure interms of its combined impact on air quality and socialwelfare, by correlating the environmental and economicaspects of alternative air pollution abatement solutions.Based on the multi-pollutant, multi-effect concept, thesystem presented aims in providing policy-makers with areliable tool for the objective assessment of the mostcost-effective packages of measures, the latter beingallocated according to the particular features and needs ofthe areas examined.     

Trace elements in camel tissues from a semi-arid region

Trace and minor element concentrations differ in animal tissues as the result of the surrounding environment (feeding plants, soil contaminated with food and drinking water) and animal absorption of these elements. Concentrations of Ag, Au, Ca, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, K, Mg, Mn, Na, Ni, and Zn were determined from different tissues of camel (inter-costal, scapula, sirloin, flank, front knuckle and front limb) from the semi-arid areas of the Aswan desert (Wadi El-Allaqi) and from Aswan city, Egypt. The study included an assessment of these same elements in the desert and city plants used as food by the camels and in soils from the study areas. The results reveal that camel tissues from the desert areas exhibited higher concentrations of Na, Mg, K, Au, Ag, Cu, Co and Zn than in those of the city camels. These higher levels of element are because of the high concentrations of the same elements in the desert plants and soil of the desert area. This, in turn, depends upon the geological formation differences between the desert area and the city area. Camel tissues appear to concentrate high levels of Mn, Ni, Co and Mg in the scapula while flank portions concentrate high levels of Mg and K. The levels of elements in the camel tissues under study were within the recommended safety baseline levels for camel health and human use, as well as within the appropriate limits in the desert and city plants for camel use.     

Sustainability Criteria for Decision Support in the UK Water Industry

The incorporation of sustainability assessment into decision-making processes is a key task for water service providers in the UK and elsewhere. This paper describes the development and application of a set of sustainability criteria, which have been developed and tested with project partners in the UK and Romania. They will be used in a 'guidebook' that will set out a framework to facilitate the inclusion of sustainability in the decision-making process. This work is part of the Sustainable Water Industry Asset Resource Decisions project to develop a multi-criteria analysis decision support system to assist water service providers to assess the relative sustainability of water/wastewater system asset development decisions.     

喀斯特石山地区社会经济与生态环境可持续发展系统研究:以桂西北为例

本建立了广西西北部喀斯特石山地区可持续发展的系统动力学模型。并用DYNAMO程序预测了未来20年桂西北地区的人口、工业、农业、第三产业，生态环境，土地资源，社会总产值，人均国民收人等的动态变化趋势，结果显示，该地区由于人口，工业资产增加使物质和能源消耗增长太快，而对污染治理的投入又太少，导致桂西北地区的生存环境质量下降，因此应当加大对污染治理的投入力度，改善区域环境质量，这是实现息烽县区域可持续发展的关键，根据区域特点探讨了桂西北喀斯特贫困山区的形成演化，提出了可持续发展的途径。     

A critical look at residential electricity conservation campaigns in a developing country environment

This paper analyses survey results of the effectiveness of information campaigns to promote energy efficiency among residential consumers in Brazil. The survey found that consumers have a relatively good knowledge of conservation measures to improve electricity usage. Nevertheless, other approaches are needed to promote energy conservation in the household sector.