Scenario analysis of perspective change to support climate adaptation: lessons from a pilot study on Dutch river management

Climate adaptation is a complex task surrounded by uncertainty. To support climate adaptation policies, a new scenario approach is pursued to explore possible discontinuous future developments of societal perspectives on climate adaptation issues. The scenario approach was tested for a case study on Dutch river management. In a series of scenario development workshops, a select group of stakeholders explored the perspectives on the management of the River Meuse in the past, present, and future. The process was supported by an analytical perspectives mapping tool to illustrate and analyze the development of perspectives over time. The process and analytical tools contributed to insight into the drivers of perspective change for the case study at hand. Moreover, the stakeholders highlighted the potential of the approach for water management policy for creating awareness about the plurality of perspectives and the dynamics of perspective change, monitoring perspectives and perspective change as part of a flexible policy approach, and anticipating on the occurrence of shock events. Further work is required to better represent the social dynamics of perspectives change, to better empirically ground the perspective change model, and to apply integrated water models in the scenario development process to assess water–society interactions.     

The state of predatory mammal populations in the impact zone of the Kalinin Nuclear Power Plant as inferred from their phene pool

The states of the populations of five dominant species of predatory mammals living in the area affected by the Kalinin Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) and in remote districts of Tver’ oblast have been compared. A total of 1120 skulls, including 708 skulls from the vicinity of the NPP, have been examined. The data on parameters characterizing similarities between the samples, the degree and structure of intrapopulation diversity, and ontogenetic stability suggest with a high probability that the Kalinin NPP has no effect on wild populations of predatory mammals.     

Noninvasive molecular genetic analysis in studying the ecology of the snow leopard: Problems and prospects

Molecular genetic methods were used to perform the species and individual identification of 117 samples of hair and feces of carnivores collected in natural habitats. The species were identified for 85.5% of the samples. The analysis of the nucleotide sequences of the cytochrome b mitochondrial gene was used to identify the samples of hair and feces of snow leopards (Uncia uncia, 40%), red foxes (Vulpes vulpes, 48%), wolves (Canis lupus, 6%), and lynx (Lynx lynx, 5%). The analysis of eight microsatellite loci allowed the genotypes of 13 snow leopards to be described. The sex of 11 animals was identified.     

Radial increment of larch and pine in central Yakutia as dependent on climate change over the past 120 years

The results of studies on the radial increment of larch and pine in central Yakutia are presented. The application of dendroclimatological methods to the study of tree-ring chronologies has made it possible to evaluate tree growth response to the dynamics of climatic factors over the past 120 years. The results of analysis of radial tree increment show that the onset of the growing season has shifted to earlier dates by the end of the 20th century.     

Redistribution of free tropospheric chemical species over West Africa: radicals (OH and HO₂), peroxide (H₂O₂) and acids (HNO₃ and H₂SO₄)

The purpose of this paper is to study the redistribution of chemical species (OH, HO₂, H₂O₂, HNO₃ and H₂SO₄) over West Africa, where the cloud cover is ubiquitously present, and where deep convection often develops. In this area, because of these cloud systems, chemical species are redistributed by the ascending and descending flow, or leached if they are soluble. So, we carry out a mesoscale study using the Regional Atmospheric Modelling System (RAMS) coupled to a code of gas and aqueous chemistry (RAMS_Chemistry). It takes into account all processes under mesh. We examine several cases following the period (November and July), with inputs emissions (anthropogenic, biogenic and biomass burning). The radicals OH and HO₂ are an indicator of possibilities for chemical activity. They characterize the oxidizing power of the atmosphere and are very strong oxidants. The acids HNO₃ and H₂SO₄ are interesting in their transformation into nitrates and sulfates in precipitation. In November, when photochemistry is active during an event of biomass burning, concentrations of chemical species are higher than those of November in the absence of biomass burning. The concentrations of nitric acid double and sulfuric acid increases 70 times. In addition, the concentrations are even lower in July if there is a deep convection. Compared to measures of the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA), the results and observations of radicals OH and HO₂ are the same order of magnitude. Emissions from biomass burning increase the concentrations of acid and peroxide, and a deep convection cloud allows the solubility and the washing out of species, reducing their concentration. Rainfalls play a major role in solubility and washing out acids, peroxides and radicals in this region.     

Modelling the impact of nitrogen deposition, climate change and nutrient limitations on tree carbon sequestration in Europe for the period 1900-2050

We modelled the combined effects of past and expected future changes in climate and nitrogen deposition on tree carbon sequestration by European forests for the period 1900-2050. Two scenarios for deposition (current legislation and maximum technically feasible reductions) and two climate scenarios (no change and SRES A1 scenario) were used. Furthermore, the possible limitation of forest growth by calcium, magnesium, potassium and phosphorus is investigated. The area and age structure of the forests was assumed to stay constant to observations during the period 1970-1990. Under these assumptions, the simulations show that the change in forest growth and carbon sequestration in the past is dominated by changes in nitrogen deposition, while climate change is the major driver for future carbon sequestration. However, its impact is reduced by nitrogen availability. Furthermore, limitations in base cations, especially magnesium, and in phosphorus may significantly affect predicted growth in the future.     

Biodegradable Water Soluble Copolymer for Antimicrobial Applications

Synthesis and characterization of novel biodegradable, water soluble and optically active DL-malic acid (DMA) and citric acid (CA) copolymers were studied for possible use as antibacterial agents. The copolymers were synthesized by direct bulk melt condensation in the absence of a catalyst above 150 °C. Characterization of obtained copolymers was carried out with the help of infrared absorption spectra, differential scanning calorimetry and thermo gravimetric analysis. The antibacterial activity of copolymers against bacteria was investigated. The results obtained shows the above copolymers possess a broad wound dressing activity against different types of bacteria and may be useful as antibacterial agents.     

Spatial variability of precipitation in Spain

The spatial variability of annual and seasonal precipitation in the conterminous land of Spain has been evaluated by using correlation decay distance analysis (CDD). The CDD analysis essentially explores how the correlation between neighbouring stations varies according to distance. We analysed CDD independently for the decades 1956–1965, 1966–1975, 1976–1985, 1986–1995, and 1996–2005 using only those stations with no missing values for each decade. To this end, 972, 1,174, 1,242, 773 and 695 complete series were used for each decade, respectively. In particular, for each station and decade, we calculated the threshold distance at which the common variance between target (i) and neighbour series is higher than 50 % (r ²  = 0.5) to evaluate whether current density of the climate data set captures the spatial variability of precipitation within the study area. Results indicate that, at an annual scale, neighbouring stations with 50 % of common variance are restricted on average to about 105 km, but this distance can vary from 28 to 251 km within the study area. The lowest variability is located to the SW and in winter, while the higher spatial variability is found to the north, in the Cantabrian area, and to the east, in the Mediterranean and Pyrenees, during summer. Our results suggest that current density of climate stations (those operating in 2005) is good enough to study precipitation variability at an annual scale for winter, spring and autumn, but not enough for summer.     

Projecting current and potential future distribution of the Fire-bellied toad Bombina bombina under climate change in north-eastern Germany

Environmental change is likely to have a strong impact on biodiversity, and many species may shift their distribution in response. In this study, we aimed at projecting the availability of suitable habitat for an endangered amphibian species, the Fire-bellied toad Bombina bombina, in Brandenburg (north-eastern Germany). We modelled a potential habitat distribution map based on (1) a database with 10,581 presence records for Bombina from the years 1990 to 2009, (2) current estimates for ecogeographical variables (EGVs) and (3) the future projection of these EGVs according to the statistical regional model, respectively, the soil and water integrated model, applying the maximum entropy approach (Maxent). By comparing current and potential future distributions, we evaluated the projected change in distribution of suitable habitats and identified the environmental variables most associated with habitat suitability that turned out to be climatic variables related to the hydrological cycle. Under the applied scenario, our results indicate increasing habitat suitability in many areas and an extended range of suitable habitats. However, even if the environmental conditions in Brandenburg may change as predicted, it is questionable whether the Fire-bellied toad will truly benefit, as dispersal abilities of amphibian species are limited and strongly influenced by anthropogenic disturbances, that is, intensive agriculture, habitat destruction and fragmentation. Furthermore, agronomic pressure is likely to increase on productive areas with fertile soils and high water retention capacities, indeed those areas suitable for B. bombina. All these changes may affect temporary pond hydrology as well as the reproductive success and breeding phenology of toads.     

Building resilience to water scarcity in southern Spain: a case study of rice farming in Doñana protected wetlands

Agricultural water management needs to evolve in view of increased water scarcity, especially when farming and natural protected areas are closely linked. In the study site of Doñana (southern Spain), water is shared by rice producers and a world heritage biodiversity ecosystem. Our aim is to contribute to defining adaptation strategies that may build resilience to increasing water scarcity and minimize water conflicts among agricultural and natural systems. The analytical framework links a participatory process with quantitative methods to prioritize the adaptation options. Bottom-up proposed adaptation measures are evaluated by a multi-criteria analysis (MCA) that includes both socioeconomic criteria and criteria of the ecosystem services affected by the adaptation options. Criteria weights are estimated by three different methods—analytic hierarchy process, Likert scale and equal weights—that are then compared. Finally, scores from an MCA are input into an optimization model used to determine the optimal land-use distribution in order to maximize utility and land-use diversification according to different scenarios of funds and water availability. While our results show a spectrum of perceptions of priorities among stakeholders, there is one overriding theme that is to define a way to restore part of the rice fields to natural wetlands. These results hold true under the current climate scenario and even more so under an increased water scarcity scenario.