The Role of Disaggregation of Asset Values in Flood Loss Estimation: A Comparison of Different Modeling Approaches at the Mulde River,Germany

In loss estimation there is a spatial mismatch of hazard data that are commonly modeled on an explicit raster level and exposure data that are often available only for aggregated administrative units. Usually disaggregation methods that use ancillary information to distribute lumped exposure data in a finer spatial resolution help to bridge this gap. However, the actual influence of different mapping techniques and ancillary data on the final loss estimation has not been analyzed yet. In this paper three methods are applied to disaggregate residential building assets using two kinds of land use/land cover (LULC) data. The resulting disaggregated assets are validated and compared using census data of the residential building number on the community and constituency level. In addition, the disaggregated assets are taken to estimate residential building losses due to the flood in August 2002 in 21 municipalities on the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany. Losses are calculated with the help of four loss models. In general, disaggregation helps to decrease the error variance within the loss estimation. It must, however, be stated that the application of sophisticated disaggregation methods does not lead to significant improvements compared to the straightforward binary method. Therefore more effort should instead be put into the provision of high-resolution LULC data. Finally, the remaining uncertainties in loss estimation are high and demand further improvements in all modeling aspects.     

Can public participation help managing risks from natural hazards?

Most of the mitigation measures against natural hazards can not be perfectly allocated via the common market mechanism, given their principle character of being a public good. Thus, different instruments need to be applied to retrieve their values. Economic valuation tools are one alternative to estimate preferences of individuals towards these goods. These methods are often difficult to operationalise and are not a feasible task for every single project. An alternative is offered by direct preference representation through involving affected interest groups actively in decisions. A critical question is whether the decision on protection measures can be left to public participation or should remain in the experts’ decision responsibility. It can be observed that the latter mode shows inefficiencies. In this paper, it is argued that participation could be one way to bring about the desired goal of increasing efficiency. The present work offers a discussion of the relevant political economic concepts in order to introduce the idea that participation can increase efficiency through achieving the Pareto criterion claimed in the realm of constitutional economics. Furthermore it will be shown that decision aiding tools, namely multi-criteria analysis, can integrate participation into actual decision making processes in a structured way.     

Propane as an Engine Fuel for Clean Air Requirements

Air pollutants in exhaust gas produced from LP-gas (propane) were studied using both laboratory engines and vehicles. The objective of the study was both to evaluate propane as a low-pollution fuel and to provide information on adjustment of engine parameters for advantageous use of propane as a low-pollution fuel. Variables in the study were air-fuel ratio (A/F), ignition timing schedule, and ambient temperature. Data comparable to that for propane relating A/F and ambient temperature to emissions are shown for natural gas and for gasoline.     

Collective risk management: insights and opportunities for DoD decision-makers

Individuals make decisions every day in group contexts which vary in size, structure, and purpose. The US Department of Defense (DoD) is a large organization composed of many groups, and like many organizations, it has a vested interest in improving the performance of its affiliated groups, especially as it concerns risk-informed decision-making. This article discusses current foibles and considerations for decision-making in DoD groups as identified through a workshop with experts in risk-informed decision-making, cognitive science, and military operations. Experts noted that terms associated with risk-informed decision-making were often misconstrued, that formal decision-making frameworks are underutilized, and that many considerations should be taken into account when attempting to improve decision-making performance.     

Understanding Interaction Effects of Climate Change and Fire Management on Bird Distributions through Combined Process and Habitat Models

Abstract: Avian conservation efforts must account for changes in vegetation composition and structure associated with climate change. We modeled vegetation change and the probability of occurrence of birds to project changes in winter bird distributions associated with climate change and fire management in the northern Chihuahuan Desert (southwestern U.S.A.). We simulated vegetation change in a process‐based model (Landscape and Fire Simulator) in which anticipated climate change was associated with doubling of current atmospheric carbon dioxide over the next 50 years. We estimated the relative probability of bird occurrence on the basis of statistical models derived from field observations of birds and data on vegetation type, topography, and roads. We selected 3 focal species, Scaled Quail (Callipepla squamata), Loggerhead Shrike (Lanius ludovicianus), and Rock Wren (Salpinctes obsoletus), that had a range of probabilities of occurrence for our study area. Our simulations projected increases in relative probability of bird occurrence in shrubland and decreases in grassland and Yucca spp. and ocotillo (Fouquieria splendens) vegetation. Generally, the relative probability of occurrence of all 3 species was highest in shrubland because leaf‐area index values were lower in shrubland. This high probability of occurrence likely is related to the species’ use of open vegetation for foraging. Fire suppression had little effect on projected vegetation composition because as climate changed there was less fuel and burned area. Our results show that if future water limits on plant type are considered, models that incorporate spatial data may suggest how and where different species of birds may respond to vegetation changes.     

The importance of monitoring and evaluation in adaptive maritime spatial planning

Adaptive maritime spatial planning (MSP) uses monitoring and evaluation of the effectiveness of spatial and temporal management measures to promote understanding and improve planning and decision-making. An adaptive approach to MSP involves exploring alternative ways to meet management objectives, predicting the outcomes of alternative management measures, implementing one or more of these alternative management measures, monitoring to learn about the effects of management measures, and then using the results to update knowledge and adjust management actions. A monitoring and evaluation plan should be designed to be both cost effective and comprehensive. The process of setting and assessing performance metrics requires that the ecological and socio-economic objectives of the spatial management plan must be clearly stated up front for management actions to reflect those objectives accurately. To evaluate the effectiveness of a MSP plan, a range of ecological, socio-economic and institutional indicators need to be developed and monitored.     

Assessment of semi-natural habitats and landscape features on Irish farmland: New insights to inform EU Common Agricultural Policy implementation

Concerns over the loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services in farmland have prompted the development of agri-environment policy measures aimed at reducing farming pressure and maintaining semi-natural habitats in farmed landscapes. However, further knowledge is needed to guarantee successful agri-environment measures implementation. The current study assessed the quantity and the quality of semi-natural habitats in farms across a gradient of farming intensities in two contrasting regions in Ireland. Policy protection seemed fundamental for semi-natural habitats preservation. Habitats not protected by agricultural policy relied on extensive farming and are in danger of disappearing if they are intensified or abandoned. Due to the lack of policy incentives for habitat quality, no correlations were found between farming intensity and share of semi-natural habitats with habitat quality. Therefore, extensive farming and retention of habitats alone may not reverse the decline of farmland quality and biodiverisity and, thus, measures incentivising the environmental quality may be more successful.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01344-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Potential protective effects of Spirulina platensis on liver,kidney, and brain acrylamide toxicity in rats

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Acrylamide (AA) is a hazardous chemical that is widely used in industrial practices. Spirulina platensis (SP) is a blue green alga that is rich in...     

Estimation of microplastics in sediments at the southernmost coast of India (Kanyakumari)

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Increasing urbanization and anthropogenic activities of the last couple of decades have left significant amounts of plastic debris in both coastal and...