Projecting current and potential future distribution of the Fire-bellied toad Bombina bombina under climate change in north-eastern Germany

Environmental change is likely to have a strong impact on biodiversity, and many species may shift their distribution in response. In this study, we aimed at projecting the availability of suitable habitat for an endangered amphibian species, the Fire-bellied toad Bombina bombina, in Brandenburg (north-eastern Germany). We modelled a potential habitat distribution map based on (1) a database with 10,581 presence records for Bombina from the years 1990 to 2009, (2) current estimates for ecogeographical variables (EGVs) and (3) the future projection of these EGVs according to the statistical regional model, respectively, the soil and water integrated model, applying the maximum entropy approach (Maxent). By comparing current and potential future distributions, we evaluated the projected change in distribution of suitable habitats and identified the environmental variables most associated with habitat suitability that turned out to be climatic variables related to the hydrological cycle. Under the applied scenario, our results indicate increasing habitat suitability in many areas and an extended range of suitable habitats. However, even if the environmental conditions in Brandenburg may change as predicted, it is questionable whether the Fire-bellied toad will truly benefit, as dispersal abilities of amphibian species are limited and strongly influenced by anthropogenic disturbances, that is, intensive agriculture, habitat destruction and fragmentation. Furthermore, agronomic pressure is likely to increase on productive areas with fertile soils and high water retention capacities, indeed those areas suitable for B. bombina. All these changes may affect temporary pond hydrology as well as the reproductive success and breeding phenology of toads.     

Probabilistic impacts of climate change on flood frequency using response surfaces II: Scotland

This paper uses a sensitivity framework approach to look at the probabilistic impacts of climate change on 20-year return period flood peaks, by applying a set of typical response surfaces alongside the probabilistic UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) for 10 river-basin regions over Scotland. The first paper of the pair used the same approach for 10 river-basin regions over England and Wales. This paper develops the methodology for Scotland, by first enabling better estimation of the response type of Scottish catchments. Then, as for England and Wales, the potential range of impacts is shown for different types of catchment in each river-basin region in Scotland, and regional average impact ranges are estimated. Results show clear differences in impacts between catchments of different types and between regions. The Argyll and West Highland regions show the highest impacts, while the North-East Scotland region shows the lowest impacts. The overall ranges are generally smaller for Scotland than England and Wales.     

Adaptation options for marine industries and coastal communities using community structure and dynamics

Identifying effective adaptation strategies for coastal communities dependent on marine resources and impacted by climate change can be difficult due to the dynamic nature of marine ecosystems. The task is more difficult if current and predicted shifts in social and economic trends are considered. Information about social and economic change is often limited to qualitative data. A combination of qualitative and quantitative models provide the flexibility to allow the assessment of current and future ecological and socio-economic risks and can provide information on alternative adaptations. Here, we demonstrate how stakeholder input, qualitative models and Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) can provide semi-quantitative predictions, including uncertainty levels, for the assessment of climate and non-climate-driven change in a case study community. Issues are identified, including the need to increase the capacity of the community to cope with change. Adaptation strategies are identified that alter positive feedback cycles contributing to a continued decline in population, local employment and retail spending. For instance, the diversification of employment opportunities and the attraction of new residents of different ages would be beneficial in preventing further population decline. Some impacts of climate change can be combated through recreational bag or size limits and monitoring of popular range-shifted species that are currently unmanaged, to reduce the potential for excessive removal. Our results also demonstrate that combining BBNs and qualitative models can assist with the effective communication of information between stakeholders and researchers. Furthermore, the combination of techniques provides a dynamic, learning-based, semi-quantitative approach for the assessment of climate and socio-economic impacts and the identification of potential adaptation strategies.     

The use of nanovermiculite catalyst in the study of removal of the organic load and degradation of atrazine via ozone process in RPB reactor

Abstract

The main objective of this study is the degradation of a synthetic solution of atrazine by a modified vermiculite catalyzed ozonation, in a rotating packed bed (RPB) reactor. A 0.5?L RPB reactor was used to perform the experiments, using a Central Composite Design (CCD) response surface to construct the quadratic model based on the factors: pH, catalyst concentration and reactor rotation frequency. The response variable was the removal of the organic load measured in terms of Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD). After the complete quadratic model was constructed through the response surface, the COD degradation process had an optimal removal of 41% under the following conditions: pH 8.0, rotation of 1150?rpm and catalyst concentration 0.66?g L^?1.     

Seasonal changes in an intertidal community affected by sewage pollution

Seasonal changes in structure of a rocky intertidal community affected by sewage pollution at Quequén (Argentina) were studied over a period of 2 years. Most species showed a decrease in cover values in the polluted area. On the other hand, a small proportion of organisms favoured by organic enrichment predominated around the outfall during the period of study. Community structure was not significantly altered by frosts or windstorms. Desiccation is identified as the main physical stress. A combination of late spring high temperatures with extreme midday low-tides caused by northerly winds was responsible for heavy losses in dominant algae. Major seasonal changes in community structure were primarily due to variations in area covered by the chlorophyte Ulva lactuca, and crusts of blue-green algae and diatoms in the vicinity of the outfall. Highest diversity values were attained during either late winter or spring, due to increased abundances of several seasonal algae. Abundance of the dominant organism, the bivalve Brachidontes rodriguezi, remained stable, showing only slight, non-seasonal, changes. Since the absence of B. rodriguezi is an indication of heavy pollution, temporal stability of this species suggests that the intensity of sewage discharges did not vary over the period of study.     

Petroleum and hazardous chemical spills in Newark Bay, New Jersey, USA from 1982 to 1991

Newark Bay, New Jersey, is particularly vulnerable to ecological damage from petroleum and chemical spills, as a result of the enclosed nature and shallow depth of the bay, the high frequency of shipping traffic, and the numerous chemical and petroleum transfer terminals located alongs its shores. To evaluate the potential impacts to the natural resources of this coastal estuarine ecosystem, chemical and petroleum accidents reported to the US Coast Guard (USCG) between 1982 and 1991 were compiled to determine the frequency and volume of these incidents in Newark Bay and in each of its major tributaries. Records obtained from the USCG National Response Center's computerized database indicated that more than 1453 accidental incidents, resulting in the release of more than 18 million US gallons of hazardous materials and petroleum products, occurred throughout Newark Bay during this period of time. The bulk of the materials released to the aquatic environment consisted of petroleum products, specifically No. 6 Fuel Oil (103 spills, 12 829 272 US gal) and gasoline (207 spills, 48 816 US gal). The majority of the reported incidents occurred in the Arthur Kill and its tributaries, as well as in the Kill Van Kull and the Passaic River. The results of this study indicated that the accidental discharge of petroleum and hazardous chemicals represents a significant source of chemical pollution in Newark Bay. Based on the frequency of spills and the volume of materials released to the aquatic environment, it is likely that these events are having a deleterious effect on the Newark Bay ecosystem.     

Studies on transitory laxative effects of sorbitol and maltitol I: Estimation of 50% effective dose and maximum non-effective dose

The dose-response relationship between low-caloric sweetening agents, sorbitol and maltitol, administered orally in single doses, and the induction of diarrheal symptoms was investigated. Seven healthy male and 7 healthy female Japanese each in their twenties, thirties, and forties, respectively, or a total of 42 subjects were admitted to the study. The 50% laxative effective dose of sorbitol was estimated to be 0.4 g/kg for males and 1.0 g/kg for females and that of maltitol was estimated to be 0.8 g/kg for both males and females. The maximum non-effective dose of sorbitol was estimated to be 0.15 g/kg for males and 0.3 g/kg for females and that of maltitol was estimated to be 0.3 g/kg for both males and females.     

The fate of chlorobenzenes and permethrins during anaerobic sewage sludge digestion

Mixed primary sewage sludge was incubated anaerobically with and without azide addition to prevent biological activity. The behaviour of 1,3-, 1,4- and 1,2-dichlorobenzene, 1,3,5-, 1,2,4- and 1,2,3-trichlorobenzene, 1,2,3,4- and 1,2,4,5-tetrachlorobenzene, hexachlorobenzene, and cis- and trans-permethrin was examined to determine their potential removal during anaerobic digestion. All the chlorobenzenes were removed to varying extents over 32 days of incubation, ranging from 25% removal for 1,3,5-trichlorobenzene to 80% removal for 1,4-dichlorobenzene. Biodegradation may have been responsible for the reductions in 1,3- and 1,4-dichlorobenzene and 1,2,4- and 1,2,3-trichlorobenzene as there was no significant removal of these compounds in azide treated sludge. The removal over 32 days of cis- and transpermethrin was 87% and 96% respectively. These removals were attributed to a chemical or physical process.     

Residues of phosphamidon in rice fields

Thirty-day-old seedlings of rice plants (IR-20 variety) from the nursery were transplanted into experimental plots and after 52 days were sprayed with phosphamidon (Dimecron 85% EC) at two dose-rates (0.38 kg a.i. ha(-1) and 0.76 kg a.i. ha(-1)). Residues of phosphamidon in the plant, soil and water were analysed by GLC, at various time intervals, and were found to decrease steadily up to 15 days. A second application of the pesticide was made on day 113 and grains harvested on day 138. The residue level in the plants was 0.12 microg g(-1) and in the grains 0.04 microg g(-1) with the high dose. This is slightly below the EPA prescribed tolerance level of 0.05 microg g(-1). The residues in both soil and water were very low, 24 h after spraying.