Using fuzzy set theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought

This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4) defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility, in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’.     

High and low value fish chains in the Mekong Delta: challenges for livelihoods and governance

This paper investigates the structure, function and wealth distribution within the Pangasius hypophthalmus and Henicorhynchus spp./Labiobarbus spp. value chains in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam. The analysis is driven by key questions relating to the form and function of value chains, their contribution to the livelihoods of farmers and fishers, the effectiveness of government policy and the potential for value chain governance mechanisms, such as contracts and certification, to steer towards sustainable production. The results indicate that actors in the high value Pangasius hypopthalmus export chain have a higher potential income, but face considerably higher economic vulnerability from global markets. Alternatively, Henichorhychus/Labiobarbus spp. fishers are severely constrained in their ability to negotiate higher prices for their fish but appear to be less vulnerable to economic and environmental change. The paper concludes that for value chain governance to improve the livelihoods of fishers and farmers in both high and low value chains, new arrangements are needed that better accommodate customary institutions and informal market relations.     

Overcoming latecomer disadvantage through learning processes: Taiwan’s venture into wind power development

Research into national innovation systems (NISs) has received extensive academic and policy attention, and is especially relevant with latecomer countries seeking to innovate in challenging industrial environments. In playing catch up with their early industrializing counterparts, methods of learning take on increased importance in determining industrial success for latecomers. The wind turbine technology innovation system is one that is highly dependent on both the extent of the national learning processes and the strength of the national social-institutional setting. This research investigates the case of Taiwan, a country which has embarked on a program to build its national innovative capacity in wind turbine technologies with specific emphasis on Taiwan’s social sector. Within this system, the spotlight will be on four types of learning processes that interplay during wind turbine development: learning by searching, learning by doing, learning by using, and learning by interacting. Through a case study of the emergence of Taiwan’s burgeoning large-scale wind power technology initiatives, the paper aims to add to the understanding on how methods of learning impact upon the success of innovation systems. The findings show that the industry’s future prospects are constrained because of the limited learning by interacting processes between turbine component producers, turbine owners, and researchers and because of weaknesses in the institutional framework. This research also recognizes the importance that culture has on dominant forms of learning.     

Sustainable nations: what do aggregate indexes tell us?

What is a ‘sustainable nation’ and how can we identify and rank ‘sustainable nations?’ Are nations producing and consuming in a sustainable way? Although several aggregate indexes have been proposed to answer such questions, comprehensive and internationally comparable data are not available for most of these. This paper quantitatively compares three aggregate indexes of sustainability: the World Bank’s ‘Genuine Savings’ measure, the ‘Ecological Footprint,’ and the ‘Environmental Sustainability Index.’ These three indexes are available for a large number of countries and also seem to be the most influential among the aggregate indexes. This paper first discusses the main limitations and weaknesses of each of these indexes. Subsequently, it shows that rankings of sustainable nations and aggregate assessments of unsustainable world population and world GDP shares vary considerably among these indexes. This disagreement leads to suggestions for analysis and policy. One important insight is that climate change, arguable the most serious threat currently faced by humanity, is not or arbitrarily captured by the indexes.     

Economic growth and CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> emissions

This article considers a planner’s optimum control exercise with environmental pollution and derives a testable link between the growth rates of consumption and pollution. The link is then empirically estimated for the case of CO₂ emissions for a sample consisting of the union of top 25 countries in terms of CO₂ emissions, population and per capita GNP. The analysis suggests that the interrelationship between the growth rates of CO₂ emission and economic development is mostly significant for countries that have a high level of CO₂ emissions and population.     

Do EU pesticide standards promote environmentally-friendly production of fresh export vegetables in developing countries? The evidence from Kenyan green bean industry

Developed countries are major markets for developing country fresh produce. Demand by developed country consumers for spotless produce has encouraged developing country consumers to rely increasingly on pesticides in producing fresh export vegetables. However developed country pesticide standards enacted in response to reports of increased farmer and farm worker pesticide poisoning and the food safety scandals of the 1980s and 1990s require changes in the way growers use pesticides. The EU has especially developed stringent food safety standards relating to, among other things, pesticide usage. Under EU pesticide standards (EU-PS) farmers are trained by their buyers on safe use of pesticides and then closely monitored under contract. This paper looks at the impact of these standards on developing country farmers’ use of alternative pest management practices, pesticide protective clothing and the actual usage of pesticides. It finds that compliance with EU-PS increases the use of alternative pest management practices and protective clothing. However, EU-PS has mixed effect on the quantity of pesticides used. The paper also finds that farmer’s education and access to information play an important role in the use of alternative pest management practices. The paper concludes that EU-PS encourage the use of alternative pest management practices and pesticide protective gear in production of fresh export vegetables. The findings imply that EU-PS promote environmentally-friendly methods of production of fresh export vegetables in developing countries.     

Ecological Function Zoning for Environmental Planning at Different Levels

Environmental planning at different levels has been called for by environmental departments in China during last years to integrate environment consideration to economic development. Based on the accomplished environmental planning practice in Xiamen China, the paper suggests a general environmental planning process with ecological function zoning as its key steps, at the same time an effective method for ecological function zoning was formulated. The case studies of Dongfu suburban town environmental planning and Xiamen eco-city conceptual planning indicate that scientifically sound results of ecological function zoning can contribute to improving not only the adaptability and acceptability of environmental planning, also the environmental management and the decision-making. The experience shows that the ecological function zoning methods should be applied according to the principles of adaptive management, resource-based and community-based, so that it can integrate science into decision-making process, avoiding both narrow-minded viewpoints of planners and natural resource use conflicts among variety of stakeholders. Problems to be resolved in the future are also pointed out in the ending part.     

Relationship between carbon emissions and economic development: case study of six countries

There is much discussion within the sustainable development community regarding climate stabilization and particularly, finding environmentally equitable ways to address emission reductions. Knowing the current level of emission is only one variable in this complex picture. While the rate of emissions is clearly a problem, the overall increase in GHG concentration in the atmosphere is ultimately the main driver of anthropogenic warming. Therefore, it is also important to understand the cumulative emissions, those which have taken us to the current condition. This research presents a case study of six countries to compare the emissions per capita and cumulative emissions during the past 200 years. It is known that carbon emissions are closely related to economic activities, but here we show that some countries have reached per capita emissions plateaus at different levels while others are still rising. Specifically, one approach toward socioeconomic development, in terms of energy–economy, reaches a plateau at 10 Mt carbon per person, which the United Kingdom and South Korea have attained. The US occupies another emission regime at 20 Mt carbon per person. Developing economies such as India and China are considerably below these levels, and unless they follow other integrated economic/environmental solutions, they will continue to increase their per capita emissions during development.     

Comparison of marginal abatement cost curves for 2020 and 2030: longer perspectives for effective global GHG emission reductions

This study focuses on analyses of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions, from the perspective of interrelationships among time points and countries, in order to seek effective reductions. We assessed GHG emission reduction potentials and costs in 2020 and 2030 by country and sector, using a GHG emission reduction-assessment model of high resolution regarding region and technology, and of high consistency with intertemporal, interregional, and intersectoral relationships. Global GHG emission reduction potentials relative to baseline emissions in 2020 are 8.4, 14.7, and 18.9 GtCO₂eq. at costs below 20, 50, and 100 $/tCO₂eq., corresponding to +19, −2, and −7 %, respectively, relative to 2005. The emission reduction potential for 2030 is greater than that for 2020, mainly because many energy supply and energy-intensive technologies have long lifetimes and more of the current key facilities will be extant in 2020 than in 2030. The emission reduction potentials in 2030 are 12.6, 22.0, and 26.6 GtCO₂eq. at costs below 20, 50, and 100 $/tCO₂eq., corresponding to +19, −2, and −7 %, respectively, relative to 2005. The emission reduction potential for 2030 is greater than that for 2020, mainly because many energy supply and energy-intensive technologies have long lifetimes and more of the current key facilities will be extant in 2020 than in 2030. The emission reduction potentials in 2030 are 12.6, 22.0, and 26.6 GtCO₂eq. at costs below 20, 50, and 100 /tCO₂eq., corresponding to +33, +8, and −3 %, respectively, relative to 2005. Global emission reduction potentials at a cost below 50 $/tCO₂eq. for nuclear power and carbon capture and storage are 2.3 and 2.2 GtCO₂eq., respectively, relative to baseline emissions in 2030. Longer-term perspectives on GHG emission reductions toward 2030 will yield more cost-effective reduction scenarios for 2020 as well.