Recommendations on statistics and benchmarks to assess photochemical model performance

Photochemical grid models are addressing an increasing variety of air quality related issues, yet procedures and metrics used to evaluate their performance remain inconsistent. This impacts the ability to place results in quantitative context relative to other models and applications, and to inform the user and affected community of model uncertainties and weaknesses. More consistent evaluations can serve to drive improvements in the modeling process as major weaknesses are identified and addressed. The large number of North American photochemical modeling studies published in the peer-reviewed literature over the past decade affords a rich data set from which to update previously established quantitative performance “benchmarks” for ozone and particulate matter (PM) concentrations. Here we exploit this information to develop new ozone and PM benchmarks (goals and criteria) for three well-established statistical metrics over spatial scales ranging from urban to regional and over temporal scales ranging from episodic to seasonal. We also recommend additional evaluation procedures, statistical metrics, and graphical methods for good practice. While we primarily address modeling and regulatory settings in the United States, these recommendations are relevant to any such applications of state-of-the-science photochemical models. Our primary objective is to promote quantitatively consistent evaluations across different applications, scales, models, model inputs, and configurations. The purpose of benchmarks is to understand how good or poor the results are relative to historical model applications of similar nature and to guide model performance improvements prior to using results for policy assessments. To that end, it also remains critical to evaluate all aspects of the model via diagnostic and dynamic methods. A second objective is to establish a means to assess model performance changes in the future. Statistical metrics and benchmarks need to be revisited periodically as model performance and the characteristics of air quality change in the future.

Implications: We address inconsistent procedures and metrics used to evaluate photochemical model performance, recommend a specific set of statistical metrics, and develop updated quantitative performance benchmarks for those metrics. We promote quantitatively consistent evaluations across different applications, scales, models, inputs, and configurations, thereby (1) improving the user’s ability to quantitatively place results in context and guide model improvements, and (2) better informing users, regulators, and stakeholders of model uncertainties and weaknesses prior to using results for policy assessments. While we primarily address U.S. modeling and regulatory settings, these recommendations are relevant to any such applications of state-of-the-science photochemical models.     

Assessment of pathogenic bacteria in water and sediment from a water reservoir under tropical conditions (Lake Ma Vallée), Kinshasa Democratic Republic of Congo

This study was conducted to assess potential human health risks presented by pathogenic bacteria in a protected multi-use lake-reservoir (Lake Ma Vallée) located in west of Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Water and surface sediments from several points of the Lake were collected during summer. Microbial analysis was performed for Escherichia coli, Enterococcus (ENT), Pseudomonas species and heterotrophic plate counts. PCR amplification was performed for the confirmation of E. coli, ENT, Pseudomonas spp. and Pseudomonas aeruginosa isolated from samples. The results reveal low concentration of bacteria in water column of the lake, the bacterial quantification results observed in this study for the water column were below the recommended limits, according to WHO and the European Directive 2006/7/CE, for bathing water. However, high concentration of bacteria was observed in the sediment samples; the values of 2.65?×?10³, 6.35?×?10³, 3.27?×?10³ and 3.60?×?10⁸ CFU g^?1 of dry sediment for E. coli, ENT, Pseudomonas spp. and heterotrophic plate counts, respectively. The results of this study indicate that sediments of the Lake Ma Vallée can constitute a reservoir of pathogenic microorganisms which can persist in the lake. Possible resuspension of faecal indicator bacteria and pathogens would affect water quality and may increase health risks to the population during recreational activities. Our results indicate that the microbial sediment analysis provides complementary and important information for assessing sanitary quality of surface water under tropical conditions.     

Emission analysis on the effect of nanoparticles on neat biodiesel in unmodified diesel engine

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Biodiesels derived from the mahua seeds are established as a promising alternative for the diesel fuel owing to its non-edible nature and improved...     

Vulnerability of Indian mustard (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Brassica juncea</Emphasis> (L.) Czernj. Cosson) to climate variability and future adaptation strategies

A simulation study has been carried out using the InfoCrop mustard model to assess the impact of climate change and adaptation gains and to delineate the vulnerable regions for mustard (Brassica juncea (L.) Czernj. Cosson) production in India. On an all India basis, climate change is projected to reduce mustard grain yield by ～2 % in 2020 (2010–2039), ～7.9 % in 2050 (2040–2069) and ～15 % in 2080 (2070–2099) climate scenarios of MIROC3.2.HI (a global climate model) and Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies (PRECIS, a regional climate model) models, if no adaptation is followed. However, spatiotemporal variations exist for the magnitude of impacts. Yield is projected to reduce in regions with current mean seasonal temperature regimes above 25/10 °C during crop growth. Adapting to climate change through a combination of improved input efficiency, additional fertilizers and adjusting the sowing time of current varieties can increase yield by ～17 %. With improved varieties, yield can be enhanced by ～25 % in 2020 climate scenario. But, projected benefits may reduce thereafter. Development of short-duration varieties and improved crop husbandry becomes essential for sustaining mustard yield in future climates. As climatically suitable period for mustard cultivation may reduce in future, short-duration (<130 days) cultivars with 63 % pod filling period will become more adaptable. There is a need to look beyond the suggested adaptation strategy to minimize the yield reduction in net vulnerable regions.     

SWAT‐LUT: A Desktop Graphical User Interface for Updating Land Use in SWAT

Long‐term simulations of agricultural watersheds have often been done assuming constant land use over time, but this is not a realistic assumption for many agricultural regions. This paper presents the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT)‐Landuse Update Tool (LUT), a standalone, user‐friendly desktop‐based tool for updating land use in the SWAT model that allows users to process multi‐year land use data. SWAT‐LUT is compatible with several SWAT model interfaces, provides users with several options to easily prepare and incorporate land use changes (LUCs) over a simulation period, and allows users to incorporate past or emerging land use categories. Incorporation of LUCs is expected to provide realistic model parameterization and scenario simulations. SWAT‐LUT is a public domain interface written in Python programming language. Two applications at the Fort Cobb Reservoir Experimental Watershed located in Oklahoma and pertinent results are provided to demonstrate its use. Incorporating LUCs related to implementation of recommended conservation practices over the years reduced discharge, evapotranspiration, sediment, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus loads by 59%, 9%, 68%, 53%, and 88%, respectively. The user’s manual is included in this article as Supporting Information. The SWAT‐LUT executable file and an example SWAT project with three land use rasters and the user’s manual are available at the United States Department of Agriculture‐Agricultural Research Service Grazinglands Research Laboratory website under Software. Editor’s note : This paper is part of the featured series on Optimizing Ogallala Aquifer Water Use to Sustain Food Systems. See the February 2019 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

Selective sensing of mercury(II) using PVC-based membranes incorporating recently synthesized 1,3-alternate thiacalix[4]crown ionophore

The construction and electrodes characteristics of poly(vinylchloride) (PVC)-based polymeric membrane electrode (PME) and coated graphite electrode (CGE), incorporating 1,3-alternate thiacalix[4]crown as ionophore for estimation of Hg(II) ions, are reported here. The best potential response was observed for PME-1 having membrane composition of: ionophore (6.2 mg), PVC (100.0 mg), 2-nitrophenyl octyl ether (2-NPOE; 200.0 mg), and sodium tetraphenyl borate (NaTPB; 2.0 mg); for CGE-1 with the membrane composition: ionophore (3.5 mg), PVC (40.0 mg), 2-NPOE (80.0 mg), and NaTPB (2.0 mg). The electrodes exhibits Nernstian slope of 29.16 mV/decade with PME-1 and 30.39 mV/decade with CGE-1 for Hg(II) ions over wide concentration range, i.e., 1.0?×?10^?1 to 5.0?×?10^?6?M with PME-1 and 1.0?×?10^?1 to 5.0?×?10^?7?M with CGE-1. Lower detection limits were found to be 9.77?×?10^?6?M for PME-1 and 7.76?×?10^?7?M for CGE-1 with response time varying from 10 to 20 s. Also, these electrodes work within pH range of 2.0–6.0 for PME-1 and 1.5–6.5 for CGE-1. Overall, CGE-1 has been found to be better than PME-1. CGE-1 has been used as indicator electrode for the potentiometric titration of Hg(II) ions with EDTA as well as successfully applied for determination of Hg(II) content in wastewater, insecticide, dental amalgam, and ayurvedic medicines samples with very good performance (0.9974 correlation coefficient in the comparison against volumetric method).     

Allium cepa root tip assay in assessment of toxicity of magnesium oxide nanoparticles and microparticles

Allium cepa bioassay had been used from decades for the assessment of toxicants and their harmful effects on environment as well as human health. Magnesium oxide(MgO) particles are being utilized in different fields. However, reports on the adverse effects of MgO nanoparticles on the environment and mankind are scarce. Hence, the toxicity of MgO particles is of concern because of their increased utilization. In the current study, A. cepa was used as an indicator to assess the toxicological efficiency of MgO nano-and microparticles(NPs and MPs) at a range of exposure concentrations(12.5, 25, 50, and100 μg/m L). The toxicity was evaluated by using various bioassays on A. cepa root tip cells such as comet assay, oxidative stress and their uptake/internalization profile. Results indicated a dose dependent increase in chromosomal aberrations and decrease in mitotic index(MI) when compared to control cells and the effect was more significant for NPs than MPs(at p 0.05). Comet analysis revealed that the Deoxyribonucleic acid(DNA) damage in terms of percent tail DNA ranged from 6.8–30.1 over 12.5–100 μg/m L concentrations of MgO NPs and was found to be significant at the exposed concentrations. A significant increase in generation of hydrogen peroxide and superoxide radicals was observed in accordance with the lipid peroxidation profile in both MgO NPs and MPs treated plants when compared with control. In conclusion, this investigation revealed that MgO NPs exposure exhibited greater toxicity on A. cepa than MPs.     

Synthesis and characterization of an ion exchanger based on tamarind kernel powder and its application for removal of some metal ions from industrial effluents

A resin synthesized from tamarind kernel powder possesses high selectivity for metal ions. Distribution coefficients for some metal ions has been determined by the batch method. The influence of pH on ion exchange capacity and K _d value of metal ions were studied. The resin has been characterized by Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, thermogravimetric analysis, chemical composition and ion exchange capacity (IEC). The selectivity order is Pb²⁺?>?Cu²⁺?>?Fe²⁺?>?Zn²⁺?>?Ni²⁺. Removal of metal ions from the aqueous solution and from effluents of a steel mill has been studied.     

Trace metal pollution in aquatic sediments and some fish species from the Kwilu-Ngongo River,Democratic Republic of Congo (Bas-Congo)

In this study, the concentrations of some metals in sediments and consumable fish from the Kwilu Ngongo River, province of Bas-Congo, Democratic Republic of Congo, are investigated. The digested muscle tissue, whole fish, and river sediment samples were subjected to trace element analysis by inductively coupled plasma mass spectroscopy and by using an automatic mercury analyzer. The highest values of trace metals in fish muscle tissue were found for Cr, Cu, Pb and Hg, with maximum values of 8.6 (Cr), 15.7 (Cu), 6.0 (Pb) and 3.3 (Hg) mg kg^?1. These values are higher than maximum tolerable limits recommended by the European Commission Regulation for Food. The highest metal concentrations in sediments were 81 (Cr), 86 (Cu), 21 (Sb), 41 (Pb), and 0.8 (Hg) mg kg^?1. Sediment toxicity tests using benthic crustaceans (ostracods) revealed mortality rates of up to 30% after six days of exposure to the sediments near the sugarcane industry outlet pipe discharge. The contamination of the sediments and fishes by the elements and the bio-accumulation of mercury in fish most likely arise from the adjacent agricultural fields where intensive sugarcane cultivation since 1925 has probably contaminated the soils through the long-term use of fertilizers and pesticides.     

PM2.5 mass and light extinction reconstruction in IMPROVE

Compliance under the Regional Haze Rule of 1999 is based on Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) protocols for reconstructing aerosol mass and light extinction from aerosol chemical concentrations measured in the IMPROVE network. The accuracy, consistency, and potential biases in these formulations were examined using IMPROVE aerosol chemistry and light extinction data from 1988-1999. Underestimation of particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 microm (PM2.5) by the IMPROVE mass reconstruction formula by 12%, on average, appears to be related to the exclusion of sodium, chlorine, and other elements and to artifacts associated with the measurement of organic carbon, but not to absorption of water by sulfates and nitrates on IMPROVE Teflon filters during weighing. Light scattering measured by transmissometry is not consistent with nephelometer scattering or single-scatter albedos expected for remote locations. Light scattering was systematically overestimated by 34%, on average, with the IMPROVE particle scattering (Bsp) reconstruction formula. The use of climatologically based hygroscopic growth factors f(RH) suggested for compliance with the Haze Rule contributes significantly to this overestimation and increases the amount of light extinction attributable to sulfates for IMPROVE samples between 1993 and 1999 by 5 percentage points.