A Bayesian network approach to modelling land-use decisions under environmental policy incentives in the Brazilian Amazon

ABSTRACT

Deforestation driven by agricultural expansion is a major threat to the biodiversity of the Amazon Basin. Modelling how deforestation responds to environmental policy implementation has thus become a policy relevant scientific undertaking. However, empirical parameterization of land-use/cover change (LUCC) models is challenging due to the high complexity and uncertainty of land-use decisions. Bayesian Network (BN) modelling provides an effective framework to integrate various data sources including expert knowledge. In this study, we integrate remote sensing products with data from farm-household surveys and a decision game to model LUCC at the BR-163, in Brazil. Our ‘business as usual’ scenario indicates cumulative forest cover loss in the study region of 8,000 km² between 2014 and 2030, whereas ‘intensified law-enforcement’ would reduce cumulative deforestation to 1,600 km² over the same time interval. Our findings underline the importance of conservation law enforcement in modulating the impact of agricultural market incentives on land cover change.     

Influence of air pollution on the incidence of respiratory tract neoplasm

To evaluate the possible influence of air pollutants on the incidence of respiratory tract neoplasm we studied 12 S?o Paulo City districts where air pollution is observed. We collected data on pollutants from 1981-1990 and correlated it with the incidence of larynx and lung neoplasms in 1997. Ozone was the pollutant that best correlated with the incidence of neoplasm. The correlation coefficients were 0.7234 (p=0.277) and 0.9929 (p=0.007) for lung and larynx cancer, respectively. There may be a relationship between air pollution and the incidence of respiratory tract neoplasm. This study, however, does not allow us to conclude that there is a causal relationship.     

Sustainable development in the BRICS countries: an efficiency analysis by data envelopment

There is much concern about the social and environmental impacts caused by the economic growth of nations. Thus, to evaluate the socio-economic performance of nations, economists have increasingly addressed matters related to social welfare and the environment. It is within the scope of this context that this work discusses the performance of countries in the BRICS group regarding sustainable development. The objective of this study regards evaluating the efficiency of these countries in transforming productive resources and technological innovation into sustainable development. The proposed objective was achieved by using econometric tools as well as the data envelopment analysis method to then create economic, environmental, and social efficiency rankings for the BRICS countries, which enabled to carry out comparative analyses on the sustainable development of those countries. The results of such assessments can be of interest for more specific scientific explorations.     

Study of worker’s exposure to Tantalum-bearing particles in a mining and metallurgical plant

Environmental Geochemistry and Health - The objective of this study was to assess worker exposure to mineral dust particles, and a metabolic model, based on the model adopted by ICRP, was applied...     

Regional-scale meteorological characteristics of the Vento Norte phenomenon observed in Southern Brazil

Environmental Fluid Mechanics - The sudden increase in air temperature associated with strong gusty winds of northerly direction is a phenomenon occasionally observed during the cold season in the...     

Synthesis and application of graphene oxide as a nanoadsorbent to remove Cd (II) and Pb (II) from water: adsorption equilibrium,kinetics, and regeneration

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - In this work, graphene oxide (GO) was synthesized by the modified Hummers method. The nanomaterial was characterized by FTIR and Raman spectroscopy,...     

Identification of some plasticizers compounds in landfill leachate

In this work it was described a simple method for extraction of plasticizer compounds (mainly phthalate esters and bisphenol A (BPA)) from landfill leachate samples. The samples were submitted to an extraction procedures based on precipitation, solid phase extraction (SPE) and ionic exchange chromatography (IEC). Firstly the landfill leachate sample was acidified by addition of HCl concentrated, in order to precipitate the organic compounds that are less soluble in water. The precipitate was washed with several solvents. The aqueous phase was then submitted to SPE with XAD-4 resin and IEC with Amberlyst A-27 resin. The instrumental analysis was performed by gas chromatography with mass spectrometer detector (GC/MSD) and the compounds were identified by the GC/MSD library (Wiley) and by using some standard substances. These methodologies allow the isolation and identification of the following compounds: dioctylphthalate, diisobutilphthalate, BPA, benzoic acid, palmitic acid and diisopentylphthalate. The methods are very simple, rapid and selective, for plasticizers extraction from landfill leachate matrices.     

An evaluation of fishery co-management experience in an Amazonian black-water river (Unini River,Amazon, Brazil)

We evaluated the implementation of a fishing agreement, which was created by negotiation among all users of the resources as a co-management strategy because its definition was a result of meetings between all users of the resources. The fishing agreement was implemented in Unini River, a tributary of the right bank of Negro River. Our approach was based on the perception of the people who live in that area, called ribeirinhos. The management strategy was based on spatial distribution of the different types of fishing. We used two logistic regression models to identify the variables which are important to determine the previous concordance and satisfaction with the agreement. First, we analyzed the initial effort to implement the agreement. The variable that influenced the decision of support for the agreement and satisfaction with the results of agreement in both models was the distance from the interviewee’s residence to the sport fishing area. The results showed that the perception of improvement in well-being of the communities and structured social organization are crucial for the success of the co-management strategy.