Air pollution policies in Europe: efficiency gains from integrating climate effects with damage costs to health and crops

Emissions of air pollutants cause damage to health and crops, but several air pollutants also have an effect on climate through radiative forcing. We investigate efficiency gains achieved by integrating climate impacts of air pollutants into air quality strategies for the EU region. The pollutants included in this study are SO₂, NH₃, VOC, CO, NO_x, black carbon, organic carbon, PM_2.5, and CH₄. We illustrate the relative importance of climate change effects compared to damage to health and crops, as well as monetary gains of including climate change contributions. The analysis considers marginal abatement costs and compares air quality and climate damage in Euros. We optimize abatement policies with respect to both climate and health impacts, which imply implementing all measures that yield a net benefit. The efficiency gains of the integrated policy are in the order of 2.5 billion Euros, compared to optimal abatement based on health and crop damage only, justifying increased abatement efforts of close to 50%. Climate effect of methane is the single most important factor. If climate change is considered on a 20- instead of a 100-year time-scale, the efficiency gain almost doubles. Our results indicate that air pollution policies should be supplemented with climate damage considerations.     

Foliar absorption of intercepted rainfall improves woody plant water status most during drought

A large proportion of rainfall in dryland ecosystems is intercepted by plant foliage and is generally assumed to evaporate to the atmosphere or drip onto the soil surface without being absorbed. We demonstrate foliar absorption of intercepted rainfall in a widely distributed, continental dryland, woody-plant genus: Juniperus. We observed substantial improvement in plant water status, exceeding 1.0 MPa water potential for drought-stressed plants, following precipitation on an experimental plot that excluded soil water infiltration. Experiments that wetted shoots with unlabeled and with isotopically labeled water confirmed that water potential responded substantially to foliar wetting, that these responses were not attributable to re-equilibration with other portions of the xylem, and that magnitude of response increased with water stress. Foliar absorption is not included in most ecological, hydrological, and atmospheric models; has implications for interpreting plant isotopic signatures; and not only supplements water acquisition associated with increases in soil moisture that follow large or repeated precipitation events, but also enables plants to bypass soil water uptake and benefit from the majority of precipitation events, which wet foliage but do not increase soil moisture substantially. Foliar absorption of intercepted water could be more important than previously appreciated, especially during drought when water stress is greatest.     

Subterranean freshwater gastropod biodiversity and conservation in the United States and Mexico

Many taxonomic groups successfully exploit groundwater environments and have adapted to a subterranean (stygobiotic) existence. Among these groups are freshwater gastropods (stygosnails), which represent a widespread and taxonomically diverse component of groundwater ecosystems in North America. However, owing to sampling difficulty and lack of targeted study, stygosnails remain among the most understudied of all subterranean groups. We conducted a literature review to assess the biodiversity and geographic associations of stygosnails, along with the threats, management activities, and policy considerations related to the groundwater systems they inhabit. We identified 39 stygosnail species known to occur in a range of groundwater habitats from karst regions in the United States and Mexico. Most stygosnails exhibit extreme narrow-range endemism, resulting in a high risk of extinction from a single catastrophic event. We found that anthropogenically driven changes to surface environments have led to changes in local hydrology and degradation of groundwater systems inhabited by stygosnails such as increased sedimentation, introduction of invasive species, groundwater extraction, or physical collapse of water-bearing passages. Consequently, 32 of the 39 described stygosnail species in the United States and Mexico have been assessed as imperiled under NatureServe criteria, and 10 species have been assessed as threatened under International Union for Conservation of Nature criteria. Compared with surface species of freshwater snails, stygosnail conservation is uniquely hindered by difficulties associated with accessing subterranean habitats for monitoring and management. Furthermore, only three species were found to have federal protection in either the United States or Mexico, and current laws regulating wildlife and water pollution at the state and federal level may be inadequate for protecting stygosnail habitats. As groundwater systems continue to be manipulated and relied on by humans, groundwater-restricted fauna such as stygosnails should be studied so unique biodiversity can be protected.     

Evaluating Habitat as a Surrogate for Population Viability Using a Spatially Explicit Population Model

Because data for conservation planning are always limited, surrogates are often substituted for intractable measurements such as species richness or population viability. We examined the ability of habitat quality to act as a surrogate for population performance for both Red-shouldered Hawks (Buteo lineatus) and Northern Goshawks (Accipiter gentilis). We compared simple measures of habitat quality to estimates of population growth rates obtained from a spatially explicit model of population dynamics. We found that habitat quality was a relatively poor predictor of simulated population growth rates for several reasons. First, a relatively small proportion of the potential habitat for each species served as population sources in our simulations--15% for Red-shouldered Hawks and 2% for Goshawks. Second, when habitat quality correctly predicted demographic sources on the landscape, it consistently underestimated the contribution of these areas to the population. In areas where habitat quality correctly anticipated the presence of demographic sinks, we found no useful quantitative relationship between the two measures. Our simulation model captured the influence of habitat quality on the hawk populations, but it also incorporated interactions between dispersing individuals and landscape patterns. Thus, the discrepancies we observed likely reflected the influence of forest fragmentation and the spatial arrangement of forest patches on the populations. We conclude that simple measures of habitat quality will often be poor surrogates for population persistence, but that spatially explicit population models can help inform the development of better indices.     

From Global to Local: Providing Actionable Flood Forecast Information in a Cloud‐Based Computing Environment

Global and continental scale flood forecast provide coarse resolution flood forecast, but from the perspective of emergency management, flood warnings should be detailed and specific to local conditions. The desired refinement can be provided by the use of downscaling global scale models and through the use of distributed hydrologic models to produce a high‐resolution flood forecast. Three major challenges associated with transforming global flood forecasting to a local scale are addressed in this work. The first is using open‐source software tools to provide access to multiple data sources and lowering the barriers for users in management agencies at local level. This can be done through the Tethys Platform that enables web water resources modeling applications. The second is finding a practical solution for the computational requirements associated with running complex models and performing multiple simulations. This is done using Tethys Cluster that manages distributed and cloud computing resources as a companion to the Tethys Platform for web app development. The third challenge is discovering ways to downscale the forecasts from the global extent to the local context. Three modeling strategies have been tested to address this, including downscaling of coarse resolution global runoff models to high‐resolution stream networks and routing with Routing Application for Parallel computatIon of Discharge (RAPID), the use of hierarchical Gridded Surface and Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA) distributed models, and pre‐computed distributed GSSHA models.     

Effects of El Niño on distribution and reproductive performance of Black Brant

Climate in low-latitude wintering areas may influence temperate and high-latitude breeding populations of birds, but demonstrations of such relationships have been rare because of difficulties in linking wintering with breeding populations. We used long-term aerial surveys in Mexican wintering areas and breeding areas in Alaska, USA, to assess numbers of Black Brant (Branta bernicla nigricans; hereafter brant) on their principal wintering and breeding area in El Ni?o and non-El Ni?o years. We used Pollock's robust design to directly estimate probability of breeding and apparent annual survival of individually marked brant at the Tutakoke River (TR) colony, Alaska, in each year between 1988 and 2001. Fewer brant wintered in Mexico during every El Ni?o event since 1965. Fewer brant were observed on the principal breeding area following each El Ni?o since surveys began in 1985. Probability of breeding was negatively related to January sea surface temperature along the subtropical coast of North America during the preceding winter. Between 23% (five-year-olds or older) and 30% (three-year-olds) fewer brant nested in 1998 following the strong El Ni?o event in the winter of 1997-1998 than in non-El Ni?o years. This finding is consistent with life history theory, which predicts that longer-lived species preserve adult survival at the expense of reproduction. Oceanographic conditions off Baja California, apparently by their effect on Zostera marina (eelgrass), strongly influence winter distribution of brant geese and their reproduction (but not survival), which in turn affects ecosystem dynamics in Alaska.     

Improving effectiveness of systematic conservation planning with density data

Systematic conservation planning aims to design networks of protected areas that meet conservation goals across large landscapes. The optimal design of these conservation networks is most frequently based on the modeled habitat suitability or probability of occurrence of species, despite evidence that model predictions may not be highly correlated with species density. We hypothesized that conservation networks designed using species density distributions more efficiently conserve populations of all species considered than networks designed using probability of occurrence models. To test this hypothesis, we used the Zonation conservation prioritization algorithm to evaluate conservation network designs based on probability of occurrence versus density models for 26 land bird species in the U.S. Pacific Northwest. We assessed the efficacy of each conservation network based on predicted species densities and predicted species diversity. High‐density model Zonation rankings protected more individuals per species when networks protected the highest priority 10‐40% of the landscape. Compared with density‐based models, the occurrence‐based models protected more individuals in the lowest 50% priority areas of the landscape. The 2 approaches conserved species diversity in similar ways: predicted diversity was higher in higher priority locations in both conservation networks. We conclude that both density and probability of occurrence models can be useful for setting conservation priorities but that density‐based models are best suited for identifying the highest priority areas. Developing methods to aggregate species count data from unrelated monitoring efforts and making these data widely available through ecoinformatics portals such as the Avian Knowledge Network will enable species count data to be more widely incorporated into systematic conservation planning efforts.