The indicator performance estimate approach to determining acceptable wilderness conditions

Using data from a study conducted in the Cranberry Wilderness Area of West Virginia, United States, this paper describes how a modified importance—performance approach can be used to prioritize wilderness indicators and determine how much change from the pristine is acceptable. The approach uses two key types of information: (1) indicator importance, or visitor opinion as to which wilderness indicators have the greatest influence on their experience, and (2) management performance, or the extent to which actual indicator conditions exceed or are within visitor expectations. Performance was represented by calculating indicator performance estimates (IPEs), as defined by standardized differences between actual conditions and visitor preferences for each indicator. The results for each indicator are then presented graphically on a four-quadrant matrix for objective interpretation. Each quadrant represents a management response: keep up the good work, concentrate here, low priority, or possible overkill. The technique allows managers to more systematically and effectively utilize information routinely collected during the limits of acceptable change wilderness planning process. This paper is submitted with the approval of the Director of the West Virginia Agricultural and Forestry Experiment Station as Scientific Article No. 541. The study was funded in part, through a grant from the USDA Forest Service, Monongahela National Forest.     

Automatic safety belt use in Michigan: A two-year follow-up

The use of automatic safety belts among motorists throughout the state of Michigan was examined as part of a broader direct observation survey to measure compliance with the state's mandatory belt use law. Use of the most common types of automatic belt systems were measured: the nonmotorized detachable three-point lap and shoulder belt system, and the two-belt system with either a motorized shoulder belt and manual lap belt or a nonmotorized shoulder belt and manual lap belt. Belt use rates in vehicles with and without air bags were also compared. A total of 1,367 drivers and front-right passengers were observed with automatic belt systems between June 1 and July 11, 1992. Use of nonmotorized detachable three-point lap and shoulder belt systems was 72.3%. Lap belt use of motorized shoulder and manual lap belt systems was 70.5%. Lap belt use of nonmotorized shoulder and manual lap belt systems was 60.2%. Of all motorized and nonmotorized shoulder belt and manual lap belt systems observed, 94.5% had the shoulder belts connected.     

Using risk assessment to achieve cost-effective property transfers and site closures for former UST sites

Risk assessment has been increasingly applied as a tool in making risk management decisions that affect cleanup of contaminated sites, property transactions, and liability issues. As a site-specific evaluation, risk assessment takes into account the unique characteristics and intended future uses for site property in evaluating chemical concentrations which may remain in place without risk to public health and the environment. The results of a risk assessment can be used to determine reuse options for a property, facilitate site closure, and reduce liabilities (Copeland and Robles, 1994; Copeland et al., 1993a). This article describes the risk assessment process, the role of risk assessment in determining the need for remedial action and identifying site-specific cleanup goals, and the cost effectiveness of applying risk assessment in remedial decisions. Because of the prevalence of former UST sites throughout the United States, this article focuses on risk assessment and remediation of UST sites. However, the process can be applied at sites where other chemicals have been released. Three case studies are presented to illustrate the application of risk assessment in achieving cost-effective site closure at sites containing leaking underground storage tanks.     

Risk management is part of good management

As the use of hazard and risk assessments becomes more commonplace, the need for and importance of an overall risk management system become apparent. Such a system allows companies to prioritize both their efforts to identify and understand risks and their allocation of resources to manage and control risks. In the future, the most effective risk management systems will be integrated into other business processes and management systems, to ensure that their value as well as their costs are recognized and measured by line operations. For example, chemical and petrochemical companies such as BP Exploration, Monsanto, and Union Carbide are improving on well-established risk management systems by increasing their businesses' involvement in and ownership of the process. This article summarizes the key elements of a risk management system and uses the lessons learned by various companies to define best existing and emerging practices.     

Improving the Chest Protection of Elderly Occupants in Frontal Crashes Using SMART Load Limiters

Objective: To determine whether varying the seat belt load limiter (SBL) according to crash and occupant characteristics could have real-world injury reduction benefits in frontal impacts and, if so, to quantify those benefits.

Methods: Real-world UK accident data were used to identify the target population of vehicle occupants and frontal crash scenarios where improved chest protection could be most beneficial. Generic baseline driver and front passenger numerical models using a 50th percentile dummy were developed with MADYMO software. Simulations were performed where the load limiter threshold was varied in selected frontal impact scenarios. For each SBL setting, restraint performance, dummy kinematics, and injury outcome were studied in 5 different frontal impact types. Thoracic injury predictions were converted into injury probability values using Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) 2+ age-dependent thoracic risk curves developed and validated based on a methodology proposed by Laituri et al. (2005). Real-world benefit was quantified using the predicted AIS 2+ risk and assuming that an appropriate adaptive system was fitted to all the cars in a real-world sample of recent frontal crashes involving European passenger cars.

Results: From the accident data sample the chest was the most frequently injured body region at an AIS 2+ level in frontal impacts (7% of front seat occupants). The proportion of older vehicle front seat occupants (>64 years) with AIS 2+ injury was also greater than the proportion of younger occupants. Additionally, older occupants were more likely to sustain seat belt–induced serious chest injury in low- and moderate-speed frontal crashes. In both front seating positions, the low SBL provided the best chest injury protection, without increasing the risk to other body regions. In severe impacts, the low SBL allowed the driver to move dangerously close to the steering wheel. Compared to the driver side, greater ride-down space on the passenger side gave a higher potential for using the low SBLs. When applying the AIS 2+ risk reduction findings to the weighted accident data sample, the risk of sustaining an AIS 2+ seat belt injury changed to 0.9, 4.9, and 8.1% for young, mid, and older occupants, respectively, from their actual injury risk of 1.3, 7.6, and 13.1%.

Conclusions: These results suggest the potential for improving the safety of older occupants with the development of smarter restraint systems. This is an important finding because the number of older users is expected to increase rapidly over the next 20 years. The greatest benefits were seen at lower crash severities. This is also important because most real-world crashes occur at lower speeds.     

Structuring decisions about energy in developing communities: an example from Canada's north

Decisions about energy in developing communities are challenging from a technical standpoint, and because of the unique characteristics that typify them, e.g. limited infrastructure and government budgets, complex social and political arrangements, and economic vulnerability. Against the backdrop of these challenges, the government of Canada's Northwest Territories (NWT) is attempting to reform the region's energy system. This paper provides insights from the decision sciences, stemming from our work on the NWT's energy planning process, about how to structure decisions about energy development and delivery so as to effectively meet a range of stakeholders’ objectives in a transparent and inclusive manner.     

Project XL: cheaper,cleaner, and smarter ways to protect the environment

Are you interested in making the job of complying with federal environmental requirements cheaper and smarter for your business? The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is committed to helping business and other sectors make more sense of environmental requirements through a number of innovative programs, one of the most far‐reaching being Project XL. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Unprecedented Low Levels of Genetic Variation and Inbreeding Depression in an Island Population of the Black-Footed Rock-Wallaby

Abstract: It has been argued that demographic and environmental factors will cause small, isolated populations to become extinct before genetic factors have a significant negative impact. Islands provide an ideal opportunity to test this hypothesis because they often support small, isolated populations that are highly vulnerable to extinction. To assess the potential negative impact of isolation and small population size, we compared levels of genetic variation and fitness in island and mainland populations of the black-footed rock-wallaby ( Petrogale lateralis [Marsupialia: Macropodidae]). Our results indicate that the Barrow Island population of P. lateralis has unprecedented low levels of genetic variation (  H _e = 0.053, from 10 microsatellite loci) and suffers from inbreeding depression (reduced female fecundity, skewed sex ratio, increased levels of fluctuating asymmetry). Despite a long period of isolation ( ∼ 1600 generations) and small effective population size (  N _e ∼ 15), demographic and environmental factors have not yet driven this population to extinction. Nevertheless, it has been affected significantly by genetic factors. It has lost most of its genetic variation and become highly inbred (  F _e = 0.91), and it exhibits reduced fitness. Because several other island populations of P. lateralis also exhibit exceptionally low levels of genetic variation, this phenomenon may be widespread. Inbreeding in these populations is at a level associated with high rates of extinction in populations of domestic and laboratory species. Genetic factors cannot then be excluded as contributing to the extinction proneness of small, isolated populations.