The insurance market’s influence on investments in safety measures

In a risky process there are three alternative ways to treat the negative consequences of the risk or the accident. We can: (1) take all the consequences when an accidental event occurs, (2) reduce the probability and/or the consequences of an accidental event by safety measures or (3) transfer the consequences of the occurrence to parties better able to carry them (i.e. buying insurance). In safety management a prevailing practice is that access to an insurance market does not affect the investment in safety measures. In this paper we discuss what the consequences are of this common practice in relation to insurance and mandatory safety requirements. We conclude that an overinvestment in safety measures is very likely if insurance is not taken into account. Moreover, mandatory safety measures and insurance can lead to both over- and underinvestment in safety measures.     

Pulsed laser micro polishing: Surface prediction model

The objective of this work is to predict the final roughness of metal surfaces that have undergone pulsed laser micro polishing. The motivation for pulsed laser micro polishing is to reduce the surface roughness of parts whose surface texture can approach the feature size. Being able to predict the magnitude of the polishing and frequency (wavelength) content of the surface will assist in the design of optimal processing parameters with minimal experiments. Laser pulses are used to create shallow melt pools with a controlled size (e.g., depth) and duration in order to allow surface tension forces to “pull down” asperities with small radius of curvature. There is no ablation occurring in the process being modeled. The melt depth and duration are predicted with a transient, two-dimensional axisymmetric heat transfer model with temperature-dependent material properties. The surface of the melt pool is analytically modeled as oscillations of stationary capillary waves with damping resulting from the forces of surface tension and viscosity. Above a critical spatial frequency, f_cr, a significant reduction in the amplitude of the spatial Fourier components is expected. The work described in this paper extends the concept of critical frequency to a physics-based prediction methodology for predicting the spatial frequency content and surface roughness after polishing, given the features of the original surface, the material properties, and laser parameters. The proposed prediction methodology was validated using line polishing data for stainless steel 316L and area polishing results for pure nickel, Ti6Al4V, and Al-6061-T6. The predicted average surface roughnesses were within 12% of the values measured on the polished surfaces.     

Rapid detection of aneuploidy in uncultured chorionic villus cells using fluorescence in situ hybridization

Rapid detection of aneuploidy using chromosome-specific repetitive DNA probes and the potential diagnostic accuracy of fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) on interphase cells of chorionic villus samples (CVS) are presented. Analyses demonstrated the ability to correctly identify aneuploidy using FISH in uncultured CVS. Our preliminary investigation suggests that this technique offers a significant clinical potential to circumvent problems of culture, time, and cost in cytogenetic analysis.     

Epidemiological assessment of food aid in the Bosnian conflict, 1994-97

Surveys in emergency settings are important for the accountability of food aid. Four household surveys conducted between 1994 and 1997 measured the performance of the Bosnia food aid programme, covering a random sample of clusters in Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Republica Srpska. The team calculated coverage, exclusion and inclusion errors, programme misses, and under-supply. Despite intended universal coverage from 1994-96, 15, 19, and 31 per cent, respectively, did not receive food across the three-year time frame. Households categorised as vulnerable were somewhat more likely to receive food. Programme misses were rare, whereas under-supply fell from 30 per cent in 1994 to four per cent in 1997, as the availability of other food increased. Extrapolation suggested that 61 per cent of the food distributed did not reach households. The programme introduced priority categories for targeting in 1997, yet nearly one-half of the highest priority households did not receive food. Incomplete coverage and weak targeting were related to political constraints.     

Assessing the impact of microfinance programming on children: an evaluation from post‐tsunami Aceh

This paper presents an evaluation of the long‐term impact of microfinance programmes on Acehnese children during the post‐tsunami recovery. The study, conducted from June to August 2010, examined the impact of microfinance programming six years after the tsunami. The sample consisted of 185 microfinance participants, with a comparison group of 192 individuals who did not participate in microfinance programmes. All respondents were parents, interviewed through a structured survey. The study used four child protection indicators—diet, health, childcare and education—in contrast to traditional repayment rate indicators. The primary results were insignificant with respect to all four child protection indicators, suggesting that, with respect to these indicators, there was no long‐term difference between the impact of microfinance on beneficiaries' children and non‐beneficiaries' children. These findings signify a need for microfinance actors to move beyond traditional indicators of economic success to evaluate the social changes microfinance programmes are presumed to effect.     

Spatially differentiated management-revised discharge scenarios for an integrated analysis of multi-realisation climate and land use scenarios for the Elbe River basin

A spatially differentiated, management-revised projection of natural water availability up to 2053 was requested for a basin-wide scenario study about the impact of global change in the Elbe River basin. Detailed discharge and weather information of the recent years 1951–2003 were available for model calibration and validation. However, the straightforward “classic” approach of calibrating a hydrological model on observed data and running it with a climate scenario could not be taken, because most observed river runoffs in Central Europe are modified by human management. This paper reports how the problem was addressed and how a major projection bias could be avoided. The eco-hydrological model SWIM was set up to simulate the discharge dynamics on a daily time step. The simulation area of 134,890?km2 was divided into 2,278 sub-basins that were subdivided into more than 47,500 homogeneous landscape units (hydrotopes). For each hydrotope, plant growth and water fluxes were simulated while river routing calculation was based on the sub-basin structure. The groundwater module of SWIM had to be extended for accurate modelling of low flow periods. After basin-scale model calibration and revisions for known effects of lignite mining and water management, evapotranspiration and groundwater dynamics were adjusted individually for more than 100 sub-areas largely covering the entire area. A quasi-natural hydrograph was finally derived for each sub-area taking into account management data for the years 2002 (extremely wet) and 2003 (extremely dry). The validated model was used to access the effect of two climate change scenarios consisting of 100 realisations each and resembling temperature increases of 2 and 3?K, respectively. Additionally, four different land use scenarios were considered. In all scenario projections, discharge decreases strongly: The observed average discharge rate in the reference period 1961–1990 is 171?mm/a, and the scenario projections for the middle of the twenty-first century give 91–110?mm/a, mainly depending on the climate scenario. The area-averaged evapotranspiration increases only marginally within the scenario period, e.g., from about 570 to about 580?mm/a for the temperature increase of 2?K, while potential evapotranspiration increases considerably from about 780 to more than 900?mm/a. Both discharge and evapotranspiration changes vary strongly within the basin, correlating with elevation. The runoff coefficient that globally decreases from 0.244 to 0.160 in the 2?K scenario is locally governed primarily by land use; 68% of the variance of the decreases can be attributed to this factor.     

Uncertainty analysis in integrated assessment: the users’ perspective

Integrated Assessment (IA) models aim at providing information- and decision-support to complex problems. This paper argues that uncertainty analysis in IA models should be user-driven in order to strengthen science–policy interaction. We suggest an approach to uncertainty analysis that starts with investigating model users’ demands for uncertainty information. These demands are called “uncertainty information needs”. Identifying model users’ uncertainty information needs allows focusing the analysis on those uncertainties which users consider relevant and meaningful. As an illustrative example, we discuss the case of examining users’ uncertainty information needs in the SEAMLESS Integrated Framework (SEAMLESS-IF), an IA model chain for assessing and comparing alternative agricultural and environmental policy options. The most important user group of SEAMLESS-IF are policy experts at the European and national level. Uncertainty information needs of this user group were examined in an interactive process during the development of SEAMLESS-IF and by using a questionnaire. Results indicate that users’ information requirements differed from the uncertainty categories considered most relevant by model developers. In particular, policy experts called for addressing a broader set of uncertainty sources (e.g. model structure and technical model setup). The findings highlight that investigating users’ uncertainty information needs is an essential step towards creating confidence in an IA model and its outcomes. This alone, however, may not be sufficient for effectively implementing a user-oriented uncertainty analysis in such models. As the case study illustrates, it requires to include uncertainty analysis into user participation from the outset of the IA modelling process.