Past and future changes in Canadian boreal wildfire activity

Climate change in Canadian boreal forests is usually associated with increased drought severity and fire activity. However, future fire activity could well be within the range of values experienced during the preindustrial period. In this study, we contrast 21st century forecasts of fire occurrence (FireOcc, number of large forest fires per year) in the southern part of the Boreal Shield, Canada, with the historical range of the past 240 years statistically reconstructed from tree-ring width data. First, a historical relationship between drought indices and FireOcc is developed over the calibration period 1959-1998. Next, together with seven tree-ring based drought reconstructions covering the last 240 years and simulations from the CGCM3 and ECHAM4 global climate models, the calibration model is used to estimate past (prior to 1959) and future (post 1999) FireOcc. Last, time-dependent changes in mean FireOcc and in the occurrence rate of extreme fire years are evaluated with the aid of advanced methods of statistical time series analysis. Results suggest that the increase in precipitation projected toward the end of the 21st century will be insufficient to compensate for increasing temperatures and will be insufficient to maintain potential evapotranspiration at current levels. Limited moisture availability would cause FireOcc to increase as well. But will future FireOcc exceed its historical range? The results obtained from our approach suggest high probabilities of seeing future FireOcc reach the upper limit of the historical range. Predictions, which are essentially weighed on northwestern Ontario and eastern boreal Manitoba, indicate that, by 2061-2100, typical FireOcc could increase by more than 34% when compared with the past two centuries. Increases in fire activity as projected by this study could negatively affect the implementation in the next century of forest management inspired by historical or natural disturbance dynamics. This approach is indeed feasible only if current and future fire activities are sufficiently low compared with the preindustrial fire activity, so a substitution of fire by forest management could occur without elevating the overall frequency of disturbance. Conceivable management options will likely have to be directed toward minimizing the adverse impacts of the increasing fire activity.     

Global burned-land estimation in Latin America using MODIS composite data.

This paper presents results of the AQL2004 project, which has been develope within the GOFC-GOLD Latin American network of remote sensing and forest fires (RedLatif). The project intended to obtain monthly burned-land maps of the entire region, from Mexico to Patagonia, using MODIS (moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer) reflectance data. The project has been organized in three different phases: acquisition and preprocessing of satellite data; discrimination of burned pixels; and validation of results. In the first phase, input data consisting of 32-day composites of MODIS 500-m reflectance data generated by the Global Land Cover Facility (GLCF) of the University of Maryland (College Park, Maryland, U.S.A.) were collected and processed. The discrimination of burned areas was addressed in two steps: searching for "burned core" pixels using postfire spectral indices and multitemporal change detection and mapping of burned scars using contextual techniques. The validation phase was based on visual analysis of Landsat and CBERS (China-Brazil Earth Resources Satellite) images. Validation of the burned-land category showed an agreement ranging from 30% to 60%, depending on the ecosystem and vegetation species present. The total burned area for the entire year was estimated to be 153 215 km2. The most affected countries in relation to their territory were Cuba, Colombia, Bolivia, and Venezuela. Burned areas were found in most land covers; herbaceous vegetation (savannas and grasslands) presented the highest proportions of burned area, while perennial forest had the lowest proportions. The importance of croplands in the total burned area should be taken with reserve, since this cover presented the highest commission errors. The importance of generating systematic products of burned land areas for different ecological processes is emphasized.     

Leaching behaviour of hazardous demolition waste

Demolition wastes are generally disposed of in unlined landfills for inert waste. However, demolition wastes are not just inert wastes. Indeed, a small fraction of demolition waste contains components that are hazardous to human health and the environment, e.g., lead-based paint, mercury-contained in fluorescent lamps, treated wood, and asbestos. The objective of this study is to evaluate the release potential of pollutants contained in these hazardous components when they are mixed with inert wastes in unlined landfills. After identification of the different building products which can contain hazardous elements and which can be potentially pollutant in landfill scenario, we performed leaching tests using three different lysimeters: one lysimeter containing only inert wastes and two lysimeters containing inert wastes mixed with hazardous demolition wastes. The leachates from these lysimeters were analysed (heavy metals, chlorides, sulphates fluoride, DOC (Dissolved Organic Carbon), phenol index, and PAH). Finally, we compared concentrations and cumulative releases of elements in leachates with the limits values of European regulation for the acceptance of inert wastes at landfill. Results indicate that limit values are exceeded for some elements. We also performed a percolation column test with only demolition hazardous wastes to evaluate the specific contribution of these wastes in the observed releases.     

Indigenous guardians as an emerging approach to indigenous environmental governance

Over the past 3 decades, indigenous guardian programs (also known as indigenous rangers or watchmen) have emerged as an institution for indigenous governments to engage in collaborative environmental governance. Using a systematic review of peer-reviewed literature for research conducted in Australia, Canada, Aotearoa-New Zealand, and the United States, we sought to characterize the emergence of indigenous guardians in the literature and explore whether guardian approaches are representative of Indigenous approaches to environmental governance. Using a multistep relevance-screening method, we reviewed 83 articles published since 1995, that report on, critique, or comment on Indigenous guardians. Our findings indicated that most articles on the topic were published in the last decade (88%), focused on Australia (65%), and were in a social science discipline (53%). The lead author of the majority of articles was an academic, although only half of the articles included an indigenous scholar or member of an indigenous group or organization as a coauthor. Finally, 11 articles were on research of guardian programs that were locally led and only 5 exemplified indigenous governance, based on 2 well-known community-based monitoring typologies. Our findings indicate that more research is required to understand the implications of current guardian programs for indigenous self-determination, particularly when such programs are embedded in a broader western environmental governance structure.     

Conservation resource allocation,small population resiliency,and the fallacy of conservation triage

Some conservation prioritization methods are based on the assumption that conservation needs overwhelm current resources and not all species can be conserved; therefore, a conservation triage scheme (i.e., when the system is overwhelmed, species should be divided into three groups based on likelihood of survival, and efforts should be focused on those species in the group with the best survival prospects and reduced or denied to those in the group with no survival prospects and to those in the group not needing special efforts for their conservation) is necessary to guide resource allocation. We argue that this decision-making strategy is not appropriate because resources are not as limited as often assumed, and it is not evident that there are species that cannot be conserved. Small population size alone, for example, does not doom a species to extinction; plants, reptiles, birds, and mammals offer examples. Although resources dedicated to conserving all threatened species are insufficient at present, the world's economic resources are vast, and greater resources could be dedicated toward species conservation. The political framework for species conservation has improved, with initiatives such as the UN Sustainable Development Goals and other international agreements, funding mechanisms such as The Global Environment Facility, and the rise of many nongovernmental organizations with nimble, rapid-response small grants programs. For a prioritization system to allow no extinctions, zero extinctions must be an explicit goal of the system. Extinction is not inevitable, and should not be acceptable. A goal of no human-induced extinctions is imperative given the irreversibility of species loss.     

Offspring sex ratio in relation to parental structural size and body condition in the long-lived wandering albatross (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Diomedea exulans</Emphasis>)

Sex ratio theory is one of the most controversial topics in evolutionary ecology. Many deviations from an equal production of males and females are reported in the literature, but few patterns appear to hold across species or populations. There is clearly a need to identify fitness effects of sex ratio variation. We studied this aspect in a population of a long-lived seabird, the wandering albatross (Diomedea exulans), using molecular sex-identification techniques. We report that parental traits affect both (1) fledgling traits in a sex-dependent way and (2) chick sex: Sons are overproduced when likely to be large at fledging and, to a lesser extent, daughters are overproduced when likely to be in good body condition at fledging. Because for the same population, a previous study reported that post-fledging survival was positively affected by size in males and by body condition in females, our results suggest that wandering albatrosses manipulate offspring sex to increase post-fledging survival.     

The importance of biological factors affecting trace metal concentration as revealed from accumulation patterns in co-occurring terrestrial invertebrates

As physicochemical properties of the soil highly influence the bioavailable fraction of a particular trace metal, measured metal body burdens in a particular species are often assumed to be more reliable estimators of the contamination of the biota. To test this we compared the Cd, Cu and Zn content of three spiders (generalist predators) and two amphipods (detritivores), co-occurring in seven tidal marshes along the river Schelde, between each other and with the total metal concentrations and the concentrations of four sequential extractions of the soils. Correlations were significant in only one case and significant site x species interactions for all metals demonstrate that factors affecting metal concentration were species and site specific and not solely determined by site specific characteristics. These results emphasize that site and species specific biological factors might be of the utmost importance in determining the contamination of the biota, at least for higher trophic levels. A hypothetical example clarifies these findings.     

Vegetation dynamics after compost amendment in a Mediterranean post-fire ecosystem

On Mediterranean calcareous soils, high fire frequency induces soil impoverishment and the development of stable Quercus coccifera garrigues. Organic amendment could increase soil fertility levels, and could alter the vegetation dynamics and the established dominance relationships. In this study, the plant cover evolution is monitored in an amended burnt shrub during two years. Three treatments are studied: control (D0), 50 t ha⁻¹ (D50) and 100 t ha⁻¹ (D100) of fresh co-composted sewage sludge and greenwastes.First, the spreading process leads to the squashing of the vegetation, whose intensity reaches a threshold on D100 and limits the woody species’ recovery after amendment. Consequently, the dominant herb Brachypodium retusum is favoured. On D50, woody species are favoured compared to herbs, probably due to the space colonization strategy of Q. coccifera after squashing. Thus, compost at both rates favours the two dominant resprouter species until they have colonized all the free space created by squashing.Secondly, compost has some fertilizing effects on Rosmarinus officinalis and Ulex parviflorus, that improves their cover on D50. However, compost also increases U. parviflorus’ sensitivity to drought.At the end of the experiment, a third compost effect appears, as seeder cover becomes greater than D0 on D50. After amendment, compost covers rocky stones, which creates a new territory where species with superficial rooting can establish (mulch effect).     

Effect of Classification Procedure on the Performance of Numerically Defined Ecological Regions

Ecological regionalizations define geographic regions exhibiting relative homogeneity in ecological (i.e., environmental and biotic) characteristics. Multivariate clustering methods have been used to define ecological regions based on subjectively chosen environmental variables. We developed and tested three procedures for defining ecological regions based on spatial modeling of a multivariate target pattern that is represented by compositional dissimilarities between locations (e.g., taxonomic dissimilarities). The procedures use a “training dataset” representing the target pattern and models this as a function of environmental variables. The model is then extrapolated to the entire domain of interest. Environmental data for our analysis were drawn from a 400 m grid covering all of Switzerland and consisted of 12 variables describing climate, topography and lithology. Our target patterns comprised land cover composition of each grid cell that was derived from interpretation of aerial photographs. For Regionalization 1 we used conventional cluster analysis of the environmental variables to define 60 hierarchically organized levels comprising from 5 to 300 regions. Regionalization 1 provided a base-case for comparison with the model-based regionalizations. Regionalization 2, 3 and 4 also comprised 60 hierarchically organized levels and were derived by modeling land cover composition for 4000 randomly selected “training” cells. Regionalization 2 was based on cluster analysis of environmental variables that were transformed based on a Generalized Dissimilarity Model (GDM). Regionalization 3 and 4 were defined by clustering the training cells based on their land cover composition followed by predictive modeling of the distribution of the land cover clusters using Classification and Regression Tree (CART) and Random Forest (RF) models. Independent test data (i.e. not used to train the models) were used to test the discrimination of land cover composition at all hierarchical levels of the regionalizations using the classification strength (CS) statistic. CS for all the model-based regionalizations was significantly higher than for Regionalization 1. Regionalization 3 and 4 performed significantly better than Regionalization 2 at finer hierarchical levels (many regions) and Regionalization 4 performed significantly better than Regionalization 3 for coarse levels of detail (few regions). Compositional modeling can significantly increase the performance of numerically defined ecological regionalizations. CART and RF-based models appear to produce stronger regionalizations because discriminating variables are able to change at each hierarchic level.     

Linking intra-seasonal variations in climate and tree-ring δC: A functional modelling approach

Stable carbon isotopic composition (δ¹³C) in tree rings is a widely recognized tool for climate reconstruction, and several works suggest that seasonal information can be extracted from intra-ring δ¹³C variations. In this study, we explored the link between climate and intra-seasonal oak ring δ¹³C using a process-based modelling approach. The ISOCASTANEA model was developed to compute the seasonal dynamics of tree-ring δ¹³C for deciduous species from half-hourly climatic data by accounting for photosynthetic discrimination and carbon translocation and allocation at the tree scale and in tree rings.The model was applied from March 2005 to December 2007 in a 150-year-old deciduous oak forest. Canopy photosynthesis and stomatal conductance were calibrated using H₂O and CO₂ fluxes measured by the eddy flux technique, and simulated δ¹³C values were compared to seasonal patterns of total organic matter δ¹³C measured in tree rings for 2006 and 2007 at the same site. With the inclusion of carbon translocation and with regard to ¹³C enrichment of starch compared to soluble sugars, the model can reasonably simulate the intra-seasonal and inter-annual variability of tree-ring δ¹³C using the same parameter values for 2006 and 2007. The amplitude of the seasonal carbon isotope pattern in tree rings was influenced by both photosynthetic and post-photosynthetic processes (starch enrichment and reserve use). The δ¹³C variations in the early part of the ring, i.e., mainly in the earlywood, were related mostly to carbohydrate metabolism, although diluted information about environmental conditions during the previous year could also be found. The last part of the ring, consisting mainly of latewood, was found to be a good recorder of current-year environmental conditions, in particular relative humidity, at a fine temporal resolution when the growth rate was high. The sensitivity of the δ¹³C in the early part of the ring to carbohydrate metabolism suggests that intra-ring δ¹³C could be used to explore the relationship between tree decline or mortality and carbohydrate deficiency.