GENETIC PROGRAMMING AND ITS APPLICATION IN REAL‐TIME RUNOFF FORECASTING1

ABSTRACT: Genetic programming (GP), a relatively new evolutionary technique, is demonstrated in this study to evolve codes for the solution of problems. First, a simple example in the area of symbolic regression is considered. GP is then applied to real‐time runoff forecasting for the Orgeval catchment in France. In this study, GP functions as an error updating scheme to complement a rainfall‐runoff model, MIKE11/NAM. Hourly runoff forecasts of different updating intervals are performed for forecast horizons of up to nine hours. The results show that the proposed updating scheme is able to predict the runoff quite accurately for all updating intervals considered and particularly for updating intervals not exceeding the time of concentration of the catchment. The results are also compared with those of an earlier study, by the World Meteorological Organization, in which autoregression and Kalman filter were used as the updating methods. Comparisons show that GP is a better updating tool for real‐time flow forecasting. Another important finding from this study is that nondimensionalizing the variables enhances the symbolic regression process significantly.     

Distribution of some organochlorine compounds in pine needles from Central and Northern Europe

Levels of selected organochlorine compounds in pine needles were measured in two sampling series. The first series collected in 1989 covered Southern Germany to Northern Scandinavia, and the second collected in 1990 covered Czechoslovakia to Estonia. The levels of alpha-hexachlorocyclohexane (alpha-HCH) and hexachlorobenzene (HCB) were relatively uniform throughout Europe, while the levels of gamma-hexachlorocyclohexane (gamma-HCH) and the DDT group show higher levels in the southern parts of the investigated area. The deposition patterns of all compounds except alpha-HCH indicate a dependence on fresh release from diffuse or point sources rather than global fractionation. The analytes accumulate in the needles until senescence starts and, generally, the oldest needles have the highest concentrations. The accumulation rate of the analytes in mountain pine needles is about half that of Scots pine needles indicating the importance of species differences.     

Effects of preference heterogeneity among landowners on spatial conservation prioritization

The participation of private landowners in conservation is crucial to efficient biodiversity conservation. This is especially the case in settings where the share of private ownership is large and the economic costs associated with land acquisition are high. We used probit regression analysis and historical participation data to examine the likelihood of participation of Danish forest owners in a voluntary conservation program. We used the results to spatially predict the likelihood of participation of all forest owners in Denmark. We merged spatial data on the presence of forest, cadastral information on participation contracts, and individual‐level socioeconomic information about the forest owners and their households. We included predicted participation in a probability model for species survival. Uninformed and informed (included land owner characteristics) models were then incorporated into a spatial prioritization for conservation of unmanaged forests. The choice models are based on sociodemographic data on the entire population of Danish forest owners and historical data on their participation in conservation schemes. Inclusion in the model of information on private landowners’ willingness to supply land for conservation yielded at intermediate budget levels up to 30% more expected species coverage than the uninformed prioritization scheme. Our landowner‐choice model provides an example of moving toward more implementable conservation planning.     

Fragile X demonstrated retrospectively in amniotic cells cultured in low folate medium

Chromosome analysis in a boy aged 10 months, with psychomotor retardation, revealed the fragile X-chromosome in lymphocytes and skin fibroblasts cultured in low folate medium (TC 199). Amniocentesis and chromosomal analysis had been carried out during pregnancy because of advanced maternal age. Review of the slides from amniotic fluid cells grown routinely in low folate medium showed the marker X in 10.6 per cent of the metaphases. Possible explanations for the appearance of the marker X in amniotic cell culture are discussed.     

Disaccharidase deficiency in amniotic fluid from cases of cystic fibrosis

The activities of the disaccharidases maltase and sucrase in 4 amniotic fluid from cystic fibrosis (CF) pregnancies have been compared to those of 120 non CF-pregnancies. Very low levels were found in 3 of the CF-fluids. The fourth CF-fluid was normal in all measured microvillar enzyme activities. Elevated levels of disaccharidases in meconium from one of the patients born with CF, supports the idea that these enzymes are trapped in the intestinal cavity by sticky meconium.     

High resolution chromosomes from first trimester trophoblast cultures

A simple method for obtaining prometaphase chromosomes from cultured first trimester cells involves the addition of BrdU and FdU 11 h before harvest and ethidium bromide 1.5 h before harvest. High resolution R-banding is obtained by acridine orange staining.     

Nestling American robins compete with siblings by begging

Summary The evolution of intense begging by dependent nestling birds has recently been the subject of several theoretical papers. The interesting problem here is that nestlings should be able to communicate their nutritional status to parents in ways that are less costly energetically and less likely to attract predators. Thus, conspicuous begging behaviour is thought to have evolved as a result of either competition among nestmates or the manipulation of their parents to provide more food than would otherwise be favoured by selection. We studied sibling competition for parental feedings in the American robin (Turdus migratorius). We demonstrate that the probability that an individual nestling received food was related to several indices of begging. When we experimentally prevented parents from feeding part of their brood, both the intensity of begging and the number of feedings subsequently received by food-deprived nestlings increased. Furthermore, the begging intensity of those nestlings that were not food-deprived also increased in response to the begging of their hungrier siblings.Offprint requests to: R. Montgomerie     

Transabdominal chorionic villi sampling for first trimester fetal diagnosis. First 26 pregnancies followed to term

A consecutive series of 26 women followed to term after first trimester transabdominal chorionic villi sampling is presented. The clinical application of transabdominal chorionic villi sampling (TA-CVS) seems to have certain advantages, especially from the patients' point of view, but also in regard to successful sampling and to the complication ratio. The results in this clinical trial revealed no cases of abortions, no signs of placental damage and no cases of vaginal bleeding or infections.