Echoes from the Past: A Healthy Baltic Sea Requires More Effort

Integrated sediment multiproxy studies and modeling were used to reconstruct past changes in the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Results of natural changes over the past 6000 years in the Baltic Sea ecosystem suggest that forecasted climate warming might enhance environmental problems of the Baltic Sea. Integrated modeling and sediment proxy studies reveal increased sea surface temperatures and expanded seafloor anoxia (in deep basins) during earlier natural warm climate phases, such as the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Under future IPCC scenarios of global warming, there is likely no improvement of bottom water conditions in the Baltic Sea. Thus, the measures already designed to produce a healthier Baltic Sea are insufficient in the long term. The interactions between climate change and anthropogenic impacts on the Baltic Sea should be considered in management, implementation of policy strategies in the Baltic Sea environmental issues, and adaptation to future climate change.     

A Top-Down Regional Assessment of Urban Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Europe

This paper provides an account of urban greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from 40 countries in Europe and examines covariates of emissions levels. We use a “top-down” analysis of emissions as spatially reported in the Emission Dataset for Global Atmospheric Research supplemented by Carbon Monitoring for Action from 1153 European cities larger than 50 000 population in 2000 (comprising >81 % of the total European urban population). Urban areas are defined spatially and demographically by the Global Rural Urban Mapping Project. We compare these results with “bottom-up” carbon accounting method results for cities in the region. Our results suggest that direct (Scopes 1 and 2) GHG emissions from urban areas range between 44 and 54 % of total anthropogenic emissions for the region. While individual urban GHG footprints vary from bottom-up studies, both the mean differences and the regional energy-related GHG emission share support previous findings. Correlation analysis indicates that the urban GHG emissions in Europe are mainly influenced by population size, density, and income and not by biophysical conditions. We argue that these data and methods of analysis are best used at the regional or higher scales.     

Knowledge Production and Learning for Sustainable Landscapes: Forewords by the Researchers and Stakeholders

This special issue of AMBIO presents a new approach to sustainability science that goes beyond interdisciplinary research. Using coupled natural and human systems, or landscapes, as multiple case studies in Europe’s East and West knowledge production and learning toward transdisciplinary research was applied in Sweden, countries in Central and Eastern Europe, and Russia. First, the research group Forest-Landscape-Society summarizes the research program (2005–2012) behind this special issue of AMBIO and its development to participate in transdisciplinary research. Second, stakeholders at multiple levels provide their views on the new approach presented and reported.     

Representing large-scale land acquisitions in land use change scenarios for the Lao PDR

Regional Environmental Change - Agricultural large-scale land acquisition (LSLA) is a process that is currently not captured by land change models. We present a novel land change modeling approach...     

Integrating data-driven ecological models in an expert-based decision support system for water management in the Du river basin (Vietnam)

In this study, classification trees were combined with the Water Framework Directive (WFD)-Explorer, a modular toolbox that supports integrated water management in a river basin to evaluate the impact of different restoration measures on river ecology. First, the WFD-Explorer toolbox analysed the effect of different restoration options on the abiotic river characteristics based on the water and substance balance embedded in the simulation environment. Based on these abiotic characteristics, the biological index Biological Monitoring Working Party for Vietnam was then predicted by classification trees that were trained on biological and abiotic data collected in the Du river basin in northern Vietnam. The ecological status of streams in the basin ranged from nearly pristine headwaters to severely impacted river stretches. Elimination of point sources from ore extraction and decentralised domestic wastewater treatment proved to be the most effective measures to improve the ecological condition of the Du river basin. The combination of the WFD-Explorer results with data-driven models enabled model application in a situation where expert knowledge was lacking. Consequently, this approach appeared promising for decision support in the context of river restoration and conservation management.     

From mother to child: investigation of prenatal and postnatal exposure to persistent bioaccumulating toxicants using breast milk and placenta biomonitoring

The exposure levels of placenta and paired breast milk samples to selected organochlorine compounds and pesticides from Danish and Finnish samples have been investigated. p,p'-DDE is the dominant pollutant, beta-HCH, hexachlorobenzene, endosulfan-I, dieldrin, oxychlordane, cis-heptachlor epoxide and p,p'-DDT being the other major constituents. Their concentrations are linearly correlated between milk and placenta in similar patterns for Danish and Finnish samples. Milk samples have higher levels of these pollutants than placenta on lipid base. However, the apparently not correlated compounds, such as alpha-HCH, pentachlorobenzene, pentachloroanisole and methoxychlor, are generally accumulated more in placenta, which may suggest a tissue specific metabolic activity. Thus, depending on the compound of interest, biomonitoring may be done in placenta only or in both matrices.     

Effects of preference heterogeneity among landowners on spatial conservation prioritization

The participation of private landowners in conservation is crucial to efficient biodiversity conservation. This is especially the case in settings where the share of private ownership is large and the economic costs associated with land acquisition are high. We used probit regression analysis and historical participation data to examine the likelihood of participation of Danish forest owners in a voluntary conservation program. We used the results to spatially predict the likelihood of participation of all forest owners in Denmark. We merged spatial data on the presence of forest, cadastral information on participation contracts, and individual‐level socioeconomic information about the forest owners and their households. We included predicted participation in a probability model for species survival. Uninformed and informed (included land owner characteristics) models were then incorporated into a spatial prioritization for conservation of unmanaged forests. The choice models are based on sociodemographic data on the entire population of Danish forest owners and historical data on their participation in conservation schemes. Inclusion in the model of information on private landowners’ willingness to supply land for conservation yielded at intermediate budget levels up to 30% more expected species coverage than the uninformed prioritization scheme. Our landowner‐choice model provides an example of moving toward more implementable conservation planning.     

The globalization of the carbon market: Welfare and competitiveness effects of linking emissions trading schemes

In the light of the prevailing goal to keep global temperature increase below 2° and recent challenges to reach a global climate agreement in the near term, linking emissions trading schemes has emerged as a prominent complementing policy option. To this end, we explicitly assess (1) the macroeconomic welfare impacts and (2) the trade-based competitiveness effects of linking the European Union (EU) Emissions Trading Scheme in the year 2020. A stylized partial market analysis suggests that, independently of regional cost characteristics, the integration of emissions trading schemes (ETS) yields economic welfare gains for all participating regions. A computable general equilibrium analysis confirms these findings at the macroeconomic level: The economic efficiency losses from emissions regulation are diminished for both EU Member States and non-EU regions by linking ETS. However, the quantitative analysis suggests opposite trade-based incentives for linking up: while EU Member States improve their terms of trade by integrating with emerging ETS, non-EU linking candidates face competitiveness losses by linking. We conclude that, for non-EU regions, the attractiveness of linking ETS is a matter of priorities for economic welfare or international competitiveness. If these priorities are hierarchized in favor of welfare, the globalization of the carbon market could become a promising policy option complementing the efforts to reach a global climate agreement in 2015.