Moving beyond the linear model of expertise? IPCC and the test of adaptation

In early 2009, few would have expected that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) would come under such massive attack. The IPCC had enjoyed a pristine reputation and had even advanced to become a role model for biodiversity and food security assessments (Loreau et al. 2006; Watson 2005). However, public trust and, with it, the organization’s credibility eroded dramatically after November 2009 with the events that became known as ‘climategate’. This article seeks to contribute to current debates about how to reform the IPCC. It argues that there are major flaws in the design of the IPCC which are rooted in the linear model of expertise and which are helping to stoke the backlash against the IPCC. The article analyzes the ways in which the IPCC’s activities conform to the linear model of expertise and considers the consequences of this for integrating adaptation into the IPCC assessments. It explains why adaptation played only a marginal role up until the IPCC Third Assessment Report. It then demonstrates why the use of the linear model of expertise constrains the scientific and political debate about adaptation and leads to proxy debates about scientific evidence, which result in depoliticizing the politics of adaptation and politicizing science. Finally, the article calls for the debate to be opened up to accommodate alternatives that are both politically more feasible and at the same time more appropriate to the specific needs of adaptation policies at different levels of decision-making.     

Bill color, not badge size, indicates testosterone-related information in house sparrows

The honesty of ornamental signals of quality is often argued to be enforced via costs associated with testosterone. It is still poorly understood, however, how seasonal variation of testosterone within individuals is related to the timing and extent of ornament development. Here, we studied inter- and intra-individual variability of plasma testosterone levels in a population of 150 captive male house sparrows (Passer domesticus) through the course of a full year. We further analyzed the relationship between plasma testosterone levels and two sexually dimorphic ornaments: badge size and bill coloration. Also, because of a known negative relation between molt and circulating testosterone levels, we analyzed the relationship between ornamentation and molt status during the fall. We found that testosterone levels increased towards the breeding season and decreased before the onset of annual molt. However, within individuals, relative testosterone titers demonstrated low repeatability between seasons. Plasma testosterone levels were not correlated with badge size in any season but were correlated strongly with bill coloration during all periods, except the breeding season when variation in bill color was low. Finally, we found that bill coloration strongly correlated with molt status during fall. Our results indicate that bill coloration, not badge size, is the best ornamental indicator of a “running average” of male testosterone in house sparrows and therefore the best potential indicator of qualities and/or behavioral strategies associated with testosterone.     

On ethical leadership impact: The role of follower mindfulness and moral emotions

With the present paper, we aim to provide new conceptual insights and empirical evidence on ethical leadership contingencies: we analyze under what conditions ethical leadership can positively impact follower discretionary work behaviors (extra effort and helping). We argue that followers vary in terms of their sensitivity toward and processing of moral information, as conveyed by ethical leaders, and that these individual differences determine the strength of the link between ethical leadership and follower discretionary work behaviors. In a multisource study with 135 leader–follower dyads, we examine two prototypical examples of affective and cognitive individual differences that involve a heightened inclination toward morality: follower moral emotions and follower mindfulness. Our findings indicate that ethical leadership is more strongly related to follower extra effort and helping at higher levels of follower moral emotions and higher levels of follower mindfulness. We discuss the implications of this moral information processing perspective on ethical leadership for research and managerial practice. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assesment of Trace Elements and Organic Pollutants from a Marine Oil Complex into the Coral Reef System of Cayo Arcas, Mexico

Possible contaminants produced by the Petroleos Mexicanos (PEMEX) marine oil complex in the vicinity of the Cayo Arcas (Mexico) coral reef ecosystem were evaluated by analyzing sediments and sea water for hydrocarbons and metal elements. We found that the concentrations of aliphatic hydrocarbons in the sea water were generally low, with the highest values detected near the oil station; the concentration of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) was generally below the detection limit. The hydrocarbons found in the sediments seem to have a pyrogenic origin, and were probably produced by marine traffic in the study area. The total PAH concentration did not exceed the NOAA criteria, although levels of some individual PAHs did. The only metal detected in the sea water at high concentrations was nickel. The Ni/V ratio in the sediments indicates the contribution of crude oil to the system. The high content of Ni and Zn was attributed to the ballast waters from the oil tankers that load at the station's monobuoys. The presence of fine sediments that commonly originate from terrestrial ecosystems supported this assumption.     

Suitability of the vegetation types in Mexico's Tamaulipas state for the siting of hazardous waste treatment plants

A land suitability study was carried out by applying a multiple-criteria technique to 12 different vegetation types in Mexico's Tamaulipas state to help select potentially suitable sites for hazardous waste treatment plants. Species richness, spatial distribution, and uniqueness were selected as the criteria for estimating a vegetation type's suitability. Using the analytical hierarchy process, we ranked and mapped vegetation types, then compared the results with rankings of the same vegetation types based only on their number of endemic species. The suitabilities of the various vegetation types were ordered in more or less the same way by both methods, except in two cases for which the results were very different. The method proved to be a useful tool despite the availability of only partial (mostly qualitative) information; under such circumstances, expert experience can be incorporated in the evaluation process to a limited degree. The technique described in this paper has a high potential to aid decisions when many opinions and options must be considered simultaneously.     

Identification of realistic worst case aquatic macroinvertebrate species for prospective risk assessment using the trait concept

Purpose  

Approaches in environmental risk assessment for pesticides are becoming more and more realistic. Thereby, risk assessment has to be protective in a way that no long-lasting (adverse) effects on populations will occur in the environment. Since this imperative includes species generally showing high population vulnerability due to their life history traits, prospective risk assessment should be based on realistic worst cases. Based on life history traits, the purpose of the current study was to verify whether a worst case combination of low potential for intrinsic recovery and low ability for recolonisation can be found in the field.     

Investigation on the heavy metal content of zinc-carbon and alkaline manganese dry cells

The objective of this work was to test the compliance of commercially available batteries with the German Battery Ordinance, a project of the German government that was initiated by the Federal Environment Agency. Different types of commercially available dry cells were analysed for their cadmium, lead and mercury contents. The dry cells underwent mechanical pre-treatment, separation of the different components and microwave-assisted digestion before determination of the heavy metals. Mercury is sometimes added to prevent the generation of gaseous hydrogen from the electrochemical process. Lead could be present since it is sometimes used as an alloying element of zinc. Cadmium has no technical importance and is an undesirable impurity. None of the batteries contained higher heavy metal mass fractions than the permissible limits.     

Scenario realism and welfare estimates in choice experiments--a non-market valuation study on the European water framework directive

Using choice experiment data for economic valuation we analyse how disbelief in survey information could affect the retrieved welfare estimates. We distinguish between two types of survey information to the respondents. The first type of information concerns the current environmental status of a water body. This information is provided prior to the valuation questions and the corresponding beliefs in the provided information are also elicited before valuation. The second type of information concerns the proposed improvements in the environmental status of the water body. We find that average welfare measures differ considerably according to whether respondents who disagree with the status quo levels and find proposed scenarios unlikely are included or not.