非洲中部生态系统的碳排放及碳截留潜力

<京都议定书>中的<气候变化框架公约共同行动计划>和<清洁开发机制>要求对目前生态系统的碳蓄积、碳通量及碳截留潜力进行科学的理解,特别是对于碳贮库大但碳排放显著的、存在大面积和可重新造林土地的热带生态系统的了解.非洲中部拥有世界上10%的现有热带湿润森林,但有关该地区的碳研究甚少.1980年,非洲中部生态系统地上部分的碳蓄积为28.92Pg,到1990年则减少到24.79Pg.以增加生物量碳密度为目标而改善的森林管理能够截留18.32Pg的碳,到2050年还有超过50万km2原为森林的土地可以重新造林,从而增加截留10Pg的碳.了解生物量碳蓄积及其潜在截留量的空间分布对于通过<共同行动计划>和<清洁开发机制>所启动的碳贸易行动具有重大的意义.     

Carbon mitigation potential and costs of forestry options in Brazil,China, India,Indonesia, Mexico,the Philippines and Tanzania

This paper summarizes studies of carbon (C) mitigation potential and costs of about 40 forestry options in seven developing countries. Each study uses the same methodological approach – Comprehensive Mitigation Assessment Process (COMAP) – to estimate the above parameters between 2000 and 2030. The approach requires the projection of baseline and mitigation land-use scenarios. Coupled with data on a per ha basis on C sequestration or avoidance, and costs and benefits, it allows the estimation of monetary benefit per Mg C, and the total costs and carbon potential. The results show that about half (3.0 Pg C) the cumulative mitigation potential of 6.2 Petagram (Pg) C between 2000 and 2030 in the seven countries (about 200× 10⁶ Mg C yr^-1) could be achieved at a negative cost and the remainder at costs ranging up to $100 Mg C^-1. About 5 Pg C could be achieved, at a cost less than $20 per Mg C. Negative cost potential indicates that non-carbon revenue is sufficient to offset direct costs of these options. The achievable potential is likely to be smaller, however, due to market, institutional, and sociocultural barriers that can delay or prevent the implementation of the analyzed options.