Responses to projected changes in climate and UV-B at the species level

Environmental manipulation experiments showed that species respond individualistically to each environmental-change variable. The greatest responses of plants were generally to nutrient, particularly nitrogen, addition. Summer warming experiments showed that woody plant responses were dominant and that mosses and lichens became less abundant. Responses to warming were controlled by moisture availability and snow cover. Many invertebrates increased population growth in response to summer warming, as long as desiccation was not induced. CO2 and UV-B enrichment experiments showed that plant and animal responses were small. However, some microorganisms and species of fungi were sensitive to increased UV-B and some intensive mutagenic actions could, perhaps, lead to unexpected epidemic outbreaks. Tundra soil heating, CO2 enrichment and amendment with mineral nutrients generally accelerated microbial activity. Algae are likely to dominate cyanobacteria in milder climates. Expected increases in winter freeze-thaw cycles leading to ice-crust formation are likely to severely reduce winter survival rate and disrupt the population dynamics of many terrestrial animals. A deeper snow cover is likely to restrict access to winter pastures by reindeer/caribou and their ability to flee from predators while any earlier onset of the snow-free period is likely to stimulate increased plant growth. Initial species responses to climate change might occur at the sub-species level: an Arctic plant or animal species with high genetic/racial diversity has proved an ability to adapt to different environmental conditions in the past and is likely to do so also in the future. Indigenous knowledge, air photographs, satellite images and monitoring show that changes in the distributions of some species are already occurring: Arctic vegetation is becoming more shrubby and more productive, there have been recent changes in the ranges of caribou, and "new" species of insects and birds previously associated with areas south of the treeline have been recorded. In contrast, almost all Arctic breeding bird species are declining and models predict further quite dramatic reductions of the populations of tundra birds due to warming. Species-climate response surface models predict potential future ranges of current Arctic species that are often markedly reduced and displaced northwards in response to warming. In contrast, invertebrates and microorganisms are very likely to quickly expand their ranges northwards into the Arctic.     

Evaluating the effects of elevated levels of atmospheric trace gases on herbs and shrubs: a prototype dual array field exposure system

In the context of global climate change, an understanding of the long-term effects of increasing concentrations of atmospheric trace gases (carbon dioxide, CO(2), ozone, O(3), oxides of nitrogen, NO(x) etc.) on both cultivated and native vegetation is of utmost importance. Over the years, under field conditions, various trace gas-vegetation exposure methodologies with differing advantages and disadvantages have been used. Because of these variable criteria, with elevated O(3) or CO(2) levels, at the present time the approach of free-air experimental-release of the gas into study plots is attracting much attention. However, in the case of CO(2), this approach (using 15 m diameter study plot with a single circular array of vent pipes) has proven to be cost prohibitive (about 59000-98000 dollars/year/replicate) due to the consumption of significant quantities of the gas to perform the experiment (CO(2) level elevated to 400 ppm above the ambient). Therefore, in this paper, we present a new approach consisting of a dual, concentric exposure array of vertical risers or vent pipes. The purpose of the outer array (17 m diameter) is to vent ambient air outward and toward the incoming wind, thus providing an air curtain to reduce the velocity of that incoming wind to simulate the mode or the most frequently occurring wind speed at the study site. The inner array (15 m diameter) vents the required elevated levels of trace gases (CO(2), O(3), etc.) into the study plot. This dual array system is designed to provide spatial homogeneity (shown through diffusion modeling) of the desired trace-gas levels within the study plot and to also reduce its consumption. As an example, while in the single-array free-air CO(2)-release system the consumption of CO(2) to elevate its ambient concentration by 400 ppm is calculated to be about 980 tons/year/replicate, it is estimated that in the dual array system it would be approximately 590 tons/year/replicate. Thus, the dual array system may provide substantial cost savings (24000-39000 dollars/year/replicate) in the CO(2) consumption (60-100 dollars/ton of CO(2)) alone. Similarly, benefits in the requirements of other trace gases (O(3), NO(x), etc.) are expected, in future multivariate studies on global climate change.     

Effects on the structure of Arctic ecosystems in the short- and long-term perspectives

Species individualistic responses to warming and increased UV-B radiation are moderated by the responses of neighbors within communities, and trophic interactions within ecosystems. All of these responses lead to changes in ecosystem structure. Experimental manipulation of environmental factors expected to change at high latitudes showed that summer warming of tundra vegetation has generally led to smaller changes than fertilizer addition. Some of the factors manipulated have strong effects on the structure of Arctic ecosystems but the effects vary regionally, with the greatest response of plant and invertebrate communities being observed at the coldest locations. Arctic invertebrate communities are very likely to respond rapidly to warming whereas microbial biomass and nutrient stocks are more stable. Experimentally enhanced UV-B radiation altered the community composition of gram-negative bacteria and fungi, but not that of plants. Increased plant productivity due to warmer summers may dominate food-web dynamics. Trophic interactions of tundra and sub-Arctic forest plant-based food webs are centered on a few dominant animal species which often have cyclic population fluctuations that lead to extremely high peak abundances in some years. Population cycles of small rodents and insect defoliators such as the autumn moth affect the structure and diversity of tundra and forest-tundra vegetation and the viability of a number of specialist predators and parasites. Ice crusting in warmer winters is likely to reduce the accessibility of plant food to lemmings, while deep snow may protect them from snow-surface predators. In Fennoscandia, there is evidence already for a pronounced shift in small rodent community structure and dynamics that have resulted in a decline of predators that specialize in feeding on small rodents. Climate is also likely to alter the role of insect pests in the birch forest system: warmer winters may increase survival of eggs and expand the range of the insects. Insects that harass reindeer in the summer are also likely to become more widespread, abundant and active during warmer summers while refuges for reindeer/caribou on glaciers and late snow patches will probably disappear.