Evaluating impacts of forage fish abundance on marine predators

Forage fish—small, low trophic level, pelagic fish such as herrings, sardines, and anchovies—are important prey species in marine ecosystems and also support large commercial fisheries. In many parts of the world, forage fish fisheries are managed using precautionary principles that target catch limits below the maximum sustainable yield. However, there are increasing calls to further limit forage fish catch to safeguard their fish, seabird, and marine mammal predators. The effectiveness of these extra-precautionary regulations, which assume that increasing prey abundance increases predator productivity, are under debate. In this study, we used prey-linked population models to measure the influence of forage fish abundance on the population growth rates of 45 marine predator populations representing 32 fish, seabird, and mammal species from 5 regions around the world. We used simulated data to confirm the ability of the statistical model to accurately detect prey influences under varying levels of influence strength and process variability. Our results indicate that predator productivity was rarely influenced by the abundance of their forage fish prey. Only 6 predator populations (13% of the total) were positively influenced by increasing prey abundance and the model exhibited high power to detect prey influences when they existed. These results suggest that additional limitation of forage fish harvest to levels well below sustainable yields would rarely result in detectable increases in marine predator populations.     

Numerical simulation of reactive processes in an experiment with partially saturated bentonite

Bentonites are preferred materials for use as engineered barriers for high-level nuclear waste repositories. Simulation of geochemical processes in bentonite is therefore important for long-term safety assessment of those repositories. In this work, the porewater chemistry of a bentonite sample subject to simultaneous heating and hydration, as studied by Cuevas et al. [Cuevas, J., Villar, M., Fernández, A., Gómez, P., Martín, P., 1997. Porewaters extracted from compacted bentonite subjected to simultaneous heating and hydration. Applied Geochemistry 12, 473-481.], was assessed with a non-isothermal reactive transport model by coupling the geochemical software PHREEQC2 with the object-oriented FEM simulator GeoSys/RockFlow. Reactive transport modelling includes heat transport, two-phase flow, multicomponent transport and geochemical reactions in the liquid phase, i.e. ion exchange, mineral dissolution/precipitation and equilibrium reactions. Simulations show that the easily soluble minerals in bentonite determine the porewater chemistry. Temperature affects both two-phase flow and geochemical reactions. Porosity change due to dissolution/precipitation is low during the experiment. However, changes of the effective porosity caused by bentonite swelling can be very large. The simulated results agree well with the experimental data.     

An Analysis of the Yearly Changes in Sulfur Concentrations at Various National Parks in the United States, 1980-1996

ABSTRACT

An apparent increasing trend in the summer concentrations of particulate sulfur at Shenandoah (for the time period 1982-1995) and at Great Smoky Mountains (for the time period 1984-1995) has been pointed out by some researchers. Others have suggested that these increasing trends may be an analytical artifact resulting from the switch from the Stacked Filter Units (SFU) measurement system to the IMPROVE (Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments) measurement system that occurred during the winter of 1987. To obtain a better understanding of the effect of the protocol change, we investigate the changes in the seasonal averages of sulfur concentrations for successive pairs of years for the period 1980-1996 for about 20 national park sites in the United States. For the period 1980-1987, we use sulfur data from the old (SFU) database and for the period 1988-1996, we use the IMPROVE database. Changes from one year to the next similar to that between 1987 and 1988 occurred during other years and seasons suggesting that chance causes alone could perhaps explain it, the degree to which chance could have caused the changes was measured using the permutation test for matched. At the very least, additional information such as side by side readings using SFU and IMPROVE measurement methods, may be needed to better understand any systematic effect in the sulfur measurements that may be ascribable to the protocol change.     

Uncertainty Assessment for Management of Soil Contaminants with Sparse Data

In order for soil resources to be sustainably managed, it is necessary to have reliable, valid data on the spatial distribution of their environmental impact. However, in practice, one often has to cope with spatial interpolation achieved from few data that show a skewed distribution and uncertain information about soil contamination. We present a case study with 76 soil samples taken from a site of 15 square km in order to assess the usability of information gleaned from sparse data. The soil was contaminated with cadmium predominantly as a result of airborne emissions from a metal smelter. The spatial interpolation applies lognormal anisotropic kriging and conditional simulation for log-transformed data. The uncertainty of cadmium concentration acquired through data sampling, sample preparation, analytical measurement, and interpolation is factor 2 within 68.3 % confidence. Uncertainty predominantly results from the spatial interpolation necessitated by low sampling density and spatial heterogeneity. The interpolation data are shown in maps presenting likelihoods of exceeding threshold values as a result of a lognormal probability distribution. Although the results are not deterministic, this procedure yields a quantified and transparent estimation of the contamination, which can be used to delineate areas for soil improvement, remediation, or restricted area use, based on the decision-makers probability safety requirement.     

On the tragedy of the commons: When predation and livestock loss may improve the economic lot of herders

This paper studies the practice of semi-domestic reindeer (Rangifer t. tarandus) herding in Finnmark county in northern Norway. In this area, the Saami reindeer herders compete for space and grazing areas and keep large herds, while at the same time, the reindeer population is heavily exposed to carnivore predation by the lynx (Lynx lynx), the wolverine (Gulo gulo), and the golden eagle (Aquila chrysaetos). It is demonstrated that predation actually may improve the economic lot of livestock holders in this unmanaged local common setting. There are ecological as well as economic reasons as to why this happens. The ecological reason is that predation compensates for natural mortality; that is, increased predation reduces natural mortality, indicating that the net loss due to predation actually may be quite small. When predation reduces livestock density, the feeding conditions of the animals will improve, resulting in increased livestock weight and higher per animal slaughter value. At the same time, a smaller stock reduces the operating costs of the herders.     

Effect of solution pH on aging dynamics and surface structural evolution of mZVI particles: H<Subscript>2</Subscript> production and spectroscopic/microscopic evidence

A microscale zero-valent iron (mZVI)-based in situ reactive zone is a promising technology for contaminated groundwater remediation. Estimation of mZVI aging behavior after its injection into the subsurface is essential for efficiency and longevity assessments. In this study, batch tests were conducted to investigate the effect of initial pH on mZVI aging dynamics, as well as the formation and evolution of aging products over 112 days. Results indicated that mZVI aging accelerated with decreasing initial pH. Corrosion rates of mZVI particles under pH 6.0 and 7.5 were approximately two orders of magnitude higher than those observed at pH 9.0. The morphological, structural, and compositional evolution of mZVI particles in three systems (pH = 6.0, 7.5, and 9.0) were investigated using scanning electron microscopy, X-ray diffraction, and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy. In acidic and neutral solutions, a thick passivation layer with loosely and unevenly distributed aging precipitates was observed, and Fe₃O₄ was the final aging precipitate. Nevertheless, in alkaline solutions, minute aging precipitates were detected on the mZVI surface at 112 day. Characterization results suggested that mZVI was oxidized via the Fe⁰–Fe(OH)₂–Fe₃O₄ route. These findings shed new light on mZVI aging mechanisms, particularly its physicochemical characteristics and the structural evolution of mZVI in field-scale groundwater remediation applications.     

Aerosol physical,chemical and optical properties during the Rocky Mountain Airborne Nitrogen and Sulfur study

During the Rocky Mountain Airborne Nitrogen and Sulfur (RoMANS) study, conducted during the spring and summer of 2006, a suite of instruments located near the eastern boundary of Rocky Mountain National Park (RMNP) measured aerosol physical, chemical and optical properties. Three instruments, a differential mobility particle sizer (DMPS), an optical particle counter (OPC), and an aerodynamic particle sizer (APS), measured aerosol size distributions. Aerosols were sampled by an Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) sampler and a URG denuder/filter-pack system for compositional analysis. An Optec integrating nephelometer measured aerosol light scattering. The spring time period had lower aerosol concentrations, with an average volume concentration of 2.2 ± 2.6 μm³ cm^?3 compared to 6.5 ± 3.9 μm³ cm^?3 in the summer. During the spring, soil was the single largest constituent of PM_2.5 mass, accounting for 32%. During the summer, organic carbon accounted for 60% of the PM_2.5 mass. Sulfates and nitrates had higher fractional contributions in the spring than the summer. Variability in aerosol number and volume concentrations and in composition was greater in the spring than in the summer, reflecting differing meteorological conditions. Aerosol scattering coefficients (b_sp) measured by the nephelometer compared well with those calculated from Mie theory using size distributions, composition data and modeled RH dependent water contents.     

Approaches to integrating indicators into 3D landscape visualisations and their benefits for participative planning situations

In discussing issues of landscape change, the complex relationships in the landscape have to be assessed. In participative planning processes, 3D visualisations have a high potential as an aid in understanding and communicating characteristics of landscape conditions by integrating visual and non-visual landscape information. Unclear is, which design and how much interactivity is required for an indicator visualisation that would suit stakeholders best in workshop situations. This paper describes the preparation and application of three different types of integrated 3D visualisations in workshops conducted in the Entlebuch UNESCO Biosphere Reserve (CH). The results reveal that simple representations of a complex issue created by draping thematic maps on the 3D model can make problematic developments visible at a glance; that diagrams linked to the spatial context can help draw attention to problematic relationships not considered beforehand; and that the size of species as indicators of conditions of the landscape's production and biotope function seems to provide a common language for stakeholders with different perspectives. Overall, the of the indicators the functions required to assist in information processing. Further research should focus on testing the effectiveness of the integrated visualisation tools in participative processes for the general public.