Evaluating impacts of forage fish abundance on marine predators

Forage fish—small, low trophic level, pelagic fish such as herrings, sardines, and anchovies—are important prey species in marine ecosystems and also support large commercial fisheries. In many parts of the world, forage fish fisheries are managed using precautionary principles that target catch limits below the maximum sustainable yield. However, there are increasing calls to further limit forage fish catch to safeguard their fish, seabird, and marine mammal predators. The effectiveness of these extra-precautionary regulations, which assume that increasing prey abundance increases predator productivity, are under debate. In this study, we used prey-linked population models to measure the influence of forage fish abundance on the population growth rates of 45 marine predator populations representing 32 fish, seabird, and mammal species from 5 regions around the world. We used simulated data to confirm the ability of the statistical model to accurately detect prey influences under varying levels of influence strength and process variability. Our results indicate that predator productivity was rarely influenced by the abundance of their forage fish prey. Only 6 predator populations (13% of the total) were positively influenced by increasing prey abundance and the model exhibited high power to detect prey influences when they existed. These results suggest that additional limitation of forage fish harvest to levels well below sustainable yields would rarely result in detectable increases in marine predator populations.     

Numerical simulation of reactive processes in an experiment with partially saturated bentonite

Bentonites are preferred materials for use as engineered barriers for high-level nuclear waste repositories. Simulation of geochemical processes in bentonite is therefore important for long-term safety assessment of those repositories. In this work, the porewater chemistry of a bentonite sample subject to simultaneous heating and hydration, as studied by Cuevas et al. [Cuevas, J., Villar, M., Fernández, A., Gómez, P., Martín, P., 1997. Porewaters extracted from compacted bentonite subjected to simultaneous heating and hydration. Applied Geochemistry 12, 473-481.], was assessed with a non-isothermal reactive transport model by coupling the geochemical software PHREEQC2 with the object-oriented FEM simulator GeoSys/RockFlow. Reactive transport modelling includes heat transport, two-phase flow, multicomponent transport and geochemical reactions in the liquid phase, i.e. ion exchange, mineral dissolution/precipitation and equilibrium reactions. Simulations show that the easily soluble minerals in bentonite determine the porewater chemistry. Temperature affects both two-phase flow and geochemical reactions. Porosity change due to dissolution/precipitation is low during the experiment. However, changes of the effective porosity caused by bentonite swelling can be very large. The simulated results agree well with the experimental data.     

An Analysis of the Yearly Changes in Sulfur Concentrations at Various National Parks in the United States, 1980-1996

ABSTRACT

An apparent increasing trend in the summer concentrations of particulate sulfur at Shenandoah (for the time period 1982-1995) and at Great Smoky Mountains (for the time period 1984-1995) has been pointed out by some researchers. Others have suggested that these increasing trends may be an analytical artifact resulting from the switch from the Stacked Filter Units (SFU) measurement system to the IMPROVE (Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments) measurement system that occurred during the winter of 1987. To obtain a better understanding of the effect of the protocol change, we investigate the changes in the seasonal averages of sulfur concentrations for successive pairs of years for the period 1980-1996 for about 20 national park sites in the United States. For the period 1980-1987, we use sulfur data from the old (SFU) database and for the period 1988-1996, we use the IMPROVE database. Changes from one year to the next similar to that between 1987 and 1988 occurred during other years and seasons suggesting that chance causes alone could perhaps explain it, the degree to which chance could have caused the changes was measured using the permutation test for matched. At the very least, additional information such as side by side readings using SFU and IMPROVE measurement methods, may be needed to better understand any systematic effect in the sulfur measurements that may be ascribable to the protocol change.     

Uncertainty Assessment for Management of Soil Contaminants with Sparse Data

In order for soil resources to be sustainably managed, it is necessary to have reliable, valid data on the spatial distribution of their environmental impact. However, in practice, one often has to cope with spatial interpolation achieved from few data that show a skewed distribution and uncertain information about soil contamination. We present a case study with 76 soil samples taken from a site of 15 square km in order to assess the usability of information gleaned from sparse data. The soil was contaminated with cadmium predominantly as a result of airborne emissions from a metal smelter. The spatial interpolation applies lognormal anisotropic kriging and conditional simulation for log-transformed data. The uncertainty of cadmium concentration acquired through data sampling, sample preparation, analytical measurement, and interpolation is factor 2 within 68.3 % confidence. Uncertainty predominantly results from the spatial interpolation necessitated by low sampling density and spatial heterogeneity. The interpolation data are shown in maps presenting likelihoods of exceeding threshold values as a result of a lognormal probability distribution. Although the results are not deterministic, this procedure yields a quantified and transparent estimation of the contamination, which can be used to delineate areas for soil improvement, remediation, or restricted area use, based on the decision-makers probability safety requirement.     

Aerosol light scattering measurements as a function of relative humidity

The hygroscopic nature of atmospheric fine aerosol was investigated at a rural site in the Great Smoky Mountains National Park during July and August 1995. Passing the sample aerosol through an inlet, which housed an array of Perma Pure diffusion dryers, controlled the sample aerosol's relative humidity (RH). After conditioning the aerosol sample in the inlet, the light scattering coefficient and the aerosol size distribution were simultaneously measured. During this study, the conditioned aerosol's humidity ranged between 5% < RH < 95%. Aerosol response curves were produced using the ratio bspw/bspd; where bspw is the scattering coefficient measured at some RH greater than 20% and bspd is the scattering coefficient of the "dry" aerosol. For this work, any sample RH values below 15% were considered dry. Results of this investigation showed that the light scattering ratio increased continuously and smoothly over the entire range of relative humidity. The magnitude of the ratio at a particular RH value, however, varied considerably in time, particularly for RH values greater than approximately 60%. Curves of the scattering coefficient ratios as a function of RH were generated for each day and compared to the average 12-hour chemical composition of the aerosol. This comparison showed that for any particular RH value the ratio was highest during time periods of high sulfate concentrations and lowest during time periods of high soil or high organic carbon concentrations.     

Estimates of particle hygroscopicity during the Southeastern Aerosol and Visibility Study

Aerosol water content was determined from relative humidity controlled optical particle counter (ASASP-X) size distribution measurements made during the Southeastern Aerosol and Visibility Study (SEAVS) in the Great Smoky Mountains National Park during summer 1995. Since the scattering response function of the ASASP-X is sensitive to particle refractive index, a technique for calibrating the ASASP-X for any real refractive index was developed. A new iterative process was employed to calculate water mass concentration and wet refractive index as functions of relative humidity. Experimental water mass concentrations were compared to theoretically predicted values assuming only ammonium sulfate compounds were hygroscopic. These comparisons agreed within experimental uncertainty. Estimates of particle hygroscopicity using a rural aerosol model of refractive index as a function of relative humidity demonstrated no significant differences from those made with daily varying refractive index estimates. Although aerosol size parameters were affected by the assumed chemical composition, forming ratios of these parameters nearly canceled these effects.     

Self-Rated Physical Loads of Work Tasks Among Firefighters

Objectives. The present study sought to identify firefighters’ rated physical demands for the most frequently occurring work tasks and to determine if the ratings differed between full-time and part-time firefighters to help create a basis for the development of physical employment tests for firefighters. Methods. An extensive questionnaire was completed by 125 and 68 firefighters in 2000 and 2010, respectively. The data were analysed with the Mann-Whitney U test and binominal test and ranked on the basis of the responses in each category. Results. Significant differences were seen between the full- and part-time firefighters. The work tasks rated as the most physically strenuous in terms of aerobic fitness, muscle strength, work posture and body control by most respondents were smoke diving upstairs (carrying a hose), victim rescue in different ways, carrying a stretcher over terrain and pulling a hose. Conclusions. Physically strenuous work tasks should be included in the end-point performance variables used to select physical performance tests for firefighters. The part-time firefighters with no experience in several of the work tasks suggests that work-related exercises are important if both groups of firefighters are expected to do similar work.