EVALUATION OF CURVE NUMBER PROCEDURES TO PREDICT RUNOFF IN GLEAMS1

ABSTRACT: Proper selection of curve number values will improve the capability of the SCS-Curve Number procedure in predicting runoff. Both CREAMS and GLEAMS models use the Smith and Williams (1980) approach of converting CNII (curve number value for average antecedent moisture conditions) into CNI (curve number value for dry antecedent moisture conditions) in calculating the soil retention parameter (S). CREAMS and GLEAMS have been found to under predict runoff because of the internal conversion of CNII to CNI. This study shows modifications of the GLEAMS model using CMI without converting it to CM and it also shows the seasonal curve number approaches with and without converting CNII to CNI. Results indicate that using CNII without internal conversion to CNI provides better runoff and erosion predictions than the original version of GLEAMS and versions with seasonal curve numbers when tested with four years of field data in the Coastal Plain physiographic region of Maryland.     

Is love of nature in the US becoming love of electronic media? 16-year downtrend in national park visits explained by watching movies,playing video games,internet use,and oil prices

After 50 years of steady increase, per capita visits to US national parks have declined since 1988. This decline, coincident with the rise in electronic entertainment media, may represent a shift in recreation choices with broader implications for the value placed on biodiversity conservation and environmentally responsible behavior. We compared the decline in per capita visits with a set of indicators representing alternate recreation choices and constraints. The Spearman correlation analyses found this decline in NPV to be significantly negatively correlated with several electronic entertainment indicators: hours of television, (rs=-0.743, P<0.001), video games (rs=-0.773, P<0.001), home movies (rs=-0.788, P<0.001), theatre attendance (rs=-0.587, P<0.025) and internet use (rs=-0.783, P<0.001). There were also significant negative correlations with oil prices (rs=-0.547, P<0.025), foreign travel (rs=-0.452, P<0.05), and Appalachian Trail hikers (rs=-0.785, P<0.001). Income was significantly positively correlated with foreign travel (rs=0.621, P<0.005) but negatively correlated with national park visits (rs=-0.697, P<0.005). There was no significant correlation of mean number of vacation days, indicating available vacation time is probably not a factor. Federal funding actually increased during this period, and so was rejected as a probable factor. Park capacity was rejected as limiting since both total overnight stays and visits at the seven most popular parks rose well into the mid-1990s. Aging of baby boomers was also rejected as they are only now reaching retirement age, and thus during the period of visitation decline were still of prime family vacation age. Multiple linear regression of four of the entertainment media variables as well as oil prices explains 97.5% of this recent decline (r=0.975, multiple r2=0.950, adjusted multiple r2=0.925, SE=0.015, F=37.800, P<0.0001). We may be seeing evidence of a fundamental shift away from people's appreciation of nature (biophilia, Wilson 1984) to 'videophilia,' which we here define as "the new human tendency to focus on sedentary activities involving electronic media." Such a shift would not bode well for the future of biodiversity conservation.     

Benefits of Collaborative Learning for Environmental Management: Applying the Integrated Systems for Knowledge Management Approach to Support Animal Pest Control

Resource management issues continually change over time in response to coevolving social, economic, and ecological systems. Under these conditions adaptive management, or “learning by doing,” offers an opportunity for more proactive and collaborative approaches to resolving environmental problems. In turn, this will require the implementation of learning-based extension approaches alongside more traditional linear technology transfer approaches within the area of environmental extension. In this paper the Integrated Systems for Knowledge Management (ISKM) approach is presented to illustrate how such learning-based approaches can be used to help communities develop, apply, and refine technical information within a larger context of shared understanding. To outline how this works in practice, we use a case study involving pest management. Particular attention is paid to the issues that emerge as a result of multiple stakeholder involvement within environmental problem situations. Finally, the potential role of the Internet in supporting and disseminating the experience gained through ongoing adaptive management processes is examined.     

Assessing effects of aerobic and anaerobic conditions on phosphorus sorption and retention capacity of water treatment residuals

Water treatment residuals (WTRs) are the by-products of drinking water clarification processes, whereby chemical flocculants such as alum or ferric chloride are added to raw water to remove suspended clay particles, organic matter and other materials and impurities. Previous studies have identified a strong phosphorus (P) fixing capacity of WTRs which has led to experimentation with their use as P-sorbing materials for controlling P discharges from agricultural and forestry land. However, the P-fixing capacity of WTRs and its capacity to retain sorbed P under anaerobic conditions have yet to be fully demonstrated, which is an issue that must be addressed for WTR field applications. This study therefore examined the capacity of WTRs to retain sorbed P and sorb further additional P from aqueous solution under both aerobic and anaerobic conditions. An innovative, low cost apparatus was constructed and successfully used to rapidly establish anoxic conditions in anaerobic treatments. The results showed that even in treatments with initial solution P concentrations set at 100 mg l(-1), soluble reactive P concentrations rapidly fell to negligible levels (due to sorption by WTRs), while total P (i.e. dissolved + particulate and colloidal P) was less than 3 mg l(-1). This equated to an added P retention rate of >98% regardless of anaerobic or aerobic status, indicating that WTRs are able to sorb and retain P in both aerobic and anaerobic conditions.     

A Risk-Based Predictive Tool to Prevent Accidental Introductions of Nonindigenous Marine Species

Preventing the introduction of nonindigenous species (NIS) is the most efficient way to avoid the costs and impacts of biological invasions. The transport of fouling species on ship hulls is an important vector for the introduction of marine NIS. We use quantitative risk screening techniques to develop a predictive tool of the abundance and variety of organisms being transported by ocean-going yachts. We developed and calibrated an ordinal rank scale of the abundance of fouling assemblages on the hulls of international yacht hulls arriving in New Zealand. Fouling ranks were allocated to 783 international yachts that arrived in New Zealand between 2002 and 2004. Classification tree analysis was used to identify relationships between the fouling ranks and predictor variables that described the maintenance and travel history of the yachts. The fouling ranks provided reliable indications of the actual abundance and variety of fouling assemblages on the yachts and identified most (60%) yachts that had fouling on their hulls. However, classification tree models explained comparatively little of the variation in the distribution of fouling ranks (22.1%), had high misclassification rates (∼43%), and low predictive power. In agreement with other studies, the best model selected the age of the toxic antifouling paint on yacht hulls as the principal risk factor for hull fouling. Our study shows that the transport probability of fouling organisms is the result of a complex suite of interacting factors and that large sample sizes will be needed for calibration of robust risk models.     

Australian junior exploration floats, 2001–06, and their implications for IPOs

An analysis of 179 junior exploration floats, listed on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) between July 2001 and June 2006, helped to build a basic understanding of the strategy and business structure of these companies. The “typical” junior explorer raised A$4 million at initial public offering (IPO) to finance a 2-year, mainly greenfields exploration program. The capital raised at IPO entitled its investors to approximately half of the company, with the balance in the hands of the promoters, vendors and/or seed capital investors. Of the A$4 million raised at IPO, it intended to spend approximately two-thirds on exploration, while the remainder was absorbed in corporate overheads and the costs of the IPO. Once these were paid, ongoing corporate overheads averaged approximately 28% of its total operational expenditure. However, given an average total annual expenditure of approximately A$2.6 million, most juniors held insufficient capital reserves to meet operational costs beyond a time frame of 2 years. As at October 2006, 9% of the companies were in the process of mine construction, whereas 6% had made it to producer status. The lead time from listing to production ranged from 1.5 to 53 months, giving a median of 28 months.