北极4个亚区的影响分析

在评价北极陆地生态系统影响时,人们常常强调物种和生态系统对环境变化响应的地理变化,这种变化往往与气候、生物多样性、植被带、生态系统结构和功能的南-北梯度相关联,可是,环境、生态系统的功能和结构上,以及环境史和当前气候变化的明显东-西变化显然也很重要.尽管一些地方变得温暖,但另一些地方却降温了,海洋、群岛和山脉等地理屏障的东西差异过去也对物种和植被带响应气候变化而改变分布区的能力产生了很大影响,同时,这些地理屏障为种群遗传分化和生物多样性热点区的形成提供了必要的隔离条件,这些屏障在未来气候变暖时,也将影响物种重新分布的能力.为了说明这种东西向的变化,同时也避免过分笼统或过于专业化,基于大尺度的天气和气候形成因素,北极气候影响评价项目确定了4个主要亚区.通过模拟与4个北极气候影响评价亚区有关的主要信息,导致物种分布区发生改变的地理屏障,特别是大陆的分布和海洋产生的隔离,明显会影响植被带的向北移动.对植被区向北移动的地理限制或者促进将影响将来碳的贮存和释放,以及生物圈与大气之间水和能量的交换.此外,气候变化使受威胁物种数量在各个亚区之间差别很大(白令海地区别尤其是热点),各个植被亚区重新分布的能力差异将影响每个区的生物多样性.总而言之,亚区分析表明,在整个北极地区水平上概括生态系统结构和功能的反应、物种的丧失,以及生物圈对气候系统的反馈的趋势是困难的,说明需要对北极陆地生态系统对于气候变化响应的空间变化性有深刻的认识.     

Responses to projected changes in climate and UV-B at the species level

Environmental manipulation experiments showed that species respond individualistically to each environmental-change variable. The greatest responses of plants were generally to nutrient, particularly nitrogen, addition. Summer warming experiments showed that woody plant responses were dominant and that mosses and lichens became less abundant. Responses to warming were controlled by moisture availability and snow cover. Many invertebrates increased population growth in response to summer warming, as long as desiccation was not induced. CO2 and UV-B enrichment experiments showed that plant and animal responses were small. However, some microorganisms and species of fungi were sensitive to increased UV-B and some intensive mutagenic actions could, perhaps, lead to unexpected epidemic outbreaks. Tundra soil heating, CO2 enrichment and amendment with mineral nutrients generally accelerated microbial activity. Algae are likely to dominate cyanobacteria in milder climates. Expected increases in winter freeze-thaw cycles leading to ice-crust formation are likely to severely reduce winter survival rate and disrupt the population dynamics of many terrestrial animals. A deeper snow cover is likely to restrict access to winter pastures by reindeer/caribou and their ability to flee from predators while any earlier onset of the snow-free period is likely to stimulate increased plant growth. Initial species responses to climate change might occur at the sub-species level: an Arctic plant or animal species with high genetic/racial diversity has proved an ability to adapt to different environmental conditions in the past and is likely to do so also in the future. Indigenous knowledge, air photographs, satellite images and monitoring show that changes in the distributions of some species are already occurring: Arctic vegetation is becoming more shrubby and more productive, there have been recent changes in the ranges of caribou, and "new" species of insects and birds previously associated with areas south of the treeline have been recorded. In contrast, almost all Arctic breeding bird species are declining and models predict further quite dramatic reductions of the populations of tundra birds due to warming. Species-climate response surface models predict potential future ranges of current Arctic species that are often markedly reduced and displaced northwards in response to warming. In contrast, invertebrates and microorganisms are very likely to quickly expand their ranges northwards into the Arctic.     

Design and off-design analyses of a pre-combustion CO2 capture process in a natural gas combined cycle power plant

In this study, a cycle designed for capturing the greenhouse gas CO₂ in a natural gas combined cycle power plant has been analyzed. The process is a pre-combustion CO₂ capture cycle utilizing reforming of natural gas and removal of the carbon in the fuel prior to combustion in the gas turbine. The power cycle consists of a H₂-fired gas turbine and a triple pressure steam cycle. Nitrogen is used as fuel diluent and steam is injected into the flame for additional NO_x control. The heat recovery steam generator includes pre-heating for the various process streams. The pre-combustion cycle consists of an air-blown auto-thermal reformer, water–gas shift reactors, an amine absorption system to separate out the CO₂, as well as a CO₂ compression block. Included in the thermodynamic analysis are design calculations, as well as steady-state off-design calculations. Even though the aim is to operate a plant, as the one in this study, at full load there is also a need to be able to operate at part load, meaning off-design analysis is important. A reference case which excludes the pre-combustion cycle and only consists of the power cycle without CO₂ capture was analyzed at both design and off-design conditions for comparison. A high degree of process integration is present in the cycle studied. This can be advantageous from an efficiency stand-point but the complexity of the plant increases. The part load calculations is one way of investigating how flexible the plant is to off-design conditions. In the analysis performed, part load behavior is rather good with efficiency reductions from base load operation comparable to the reference combined cycle plant.     

Evaluation of Multi-level Social Learning for Sustainable Landscapes: Perspective of a Development Initiative in Bergslagen, Sweden

To implement policies about sustainable landscapes and rural development necessitates social learning about states and trends of sustainability indicators, norms that define sustainability, and adaptive multi-level governance. We evaluate the extent to which social learning at multiple governance levels for sustainable landscapes occur in 18 local development initiatives in the network of Sustainable Bergslagen in Sweden. We mapped activities over time, and interviewed key actors in the network about social learning. While activities resulted in exchange of experiences and some local solutions, a major challenge was to secure systematic social learning and make new knowledge explicit at multiple levels. None of the development initiatives used a systematic approach to secure social learning, and sustainability assessments were not made systematically. We discuss how social learning can be improved, and how a learning network of development initiatives could be realized.     

Site Access and Sample Frame Issues for R-EMAP Central Valley, California, Stream Assessment

The Central Valley of California contains critical habitat for many aquatic and terrestrial biological resources. The purpose of this R-EMAP project was to assess the effects from a highly modified agriculturally dominated landuse area on the aquatic resources of the lower portion of the Central Valley watersheds. The study area is 24,346 mi2 and comprises the Sacramento Valley and San Joaquin Valley watersheds to the 1,000 ft. elevation contour. Populations of interest are man-made conveyances and wadeable natural streams. There are 40,756 miles of streams and constructed conveyances within the Central Valley as designated by RF3 database. Sample sites were selected to represent 14,399 miles of streams and sloughs, and 16,697 miles of constructed conveyances.     

Uncertainty analyses for calibrating a soil carbon balance model to agricultural field trial data in Sweden and Kenya

How do additional data of the same and/or different type contribute to reducing model parameter and predictive uncertainties? Most modeling applications of soil organic carbon (SOC) time series in agricultural field trial datasets have been conducted without accounting for model parameter uncertainty. There have been recent advances with Monte Carlo-based uncertainty analyses in the field of hydrological modeling that are applicable, relevant and potentially valuable in modeling the dynamics of SOC. Here we employed a Monte Carlo method with threshold screening known as Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) to calibrate the Introductory Carbon Balance Model (ICBM) to long-term field trail data from Ultuna, Sweden and Machang’a, Kenya. Calibration results are presented in terms of parameter distributions and credibility bands on time series simulations for a number of case studies. Using these methods, we demonstrate that widely uncertain model parameters, as well as strong covariance between inert pool size and rate constant parameters, exist when root mean square simulation errors were within uncertainties in input estimations and data observations. We show that even rough estimates of the inert pool (perhaps from chemical analysis) can be quite valuable to reduce uncertainties in model parameters. In fact, such estimates were more effective at reducing parameter and predictive uncertainty than an additional 16 years time series data at Ultuna. We also demonstrate an effective method to jointly, simultaneously and in principle more robustly calibrate model parameters to multiple datasets across different climatic regions within an uncertainty framework. These methods and approaches should have benefits for use with other SOC models and datasets as well.     

Effects on the structure of Arctic ecosystems in the short- and long-term perspectives

Species individualistic responses to warming and increased UV-B radiation are moderated by the responses of neighbors within communities, and trophic interactions within ecosystems. All of these responses lead to changes in ecosystem structure. Experimental manipulation of environmental factors expected to change at high latitudes showed that summer warming of tundra vegetation has generally led to smaller changes than fertilizer addition. Some of the factors manipulated have strong effects on the structure of Arctic ecosystems but the effects vary regionally, with the greatest response of plant and invertebrate communities being observed at the coldest locations. Arctic invertebrate communities are very likely to respond rapidly to warming whereas microbial biomass and nutrient stocks are more stable. Experimentally enhanced UV-B radiation altered the community composition of gram-negative bacteria and fungi, but not that of plants. Increased plant productivity due to warmer summers may dominate food-web dynamics. Trophic interactions of tundra and sub-Arctic forest plant-based food webs are centered on a few dominant animal species which often have cyclic population fluctuations that lead to extremely high peak abundances in some years. Population cycles of small rodents and insect defoliators such as the autumn moth affect the structure and diversity of tundra and forest-tundra vegetation and the viability of a number of specialist predators and parasites. Ice crusting in warmer winters is likely to reduce the accessibility of plant food to lemmings, while deep snow may protect them from snow-surface predators. In Fennoscandia, there is evidence already for a pronounced shift in small rodent community structure and dynamics that have resulted in a decline of predators that specialize in feeding on small rodents. Climate is also likely to alter the role of insect pests in the birch forest system: warmer winters may increase survival of eggs and expand the range of the insects. Insects that harass reindeer in the summer are also likely to become more widespread, abundant and active during warmer summers while refuges for reindeer/caribou on glaciers and late snow patches will probably disappear.