Baselines for land-use change in the tropics: application to avoided deforestation projects

Although forest conservation activities, particularly in the tropics, offer significant potential for mitigating carbon (C) emissions, these types of activities have faced obstacles in the policy arena caused by the difficulty in determining key elements of the project cycle, particularly the baseline. A baseline for forest conservation has two main components: the projected land-use change and the corresponding carbon stocks in applicable pools in vegetation and soil, with land-use change being the most difficult to address analytically. In this paper we focus on developing and comparing three models, ranging from relatively simple extrapolations of past trends in land use based on simple drivers such as population growth to more complex extrapolations of past trends using spatially explicit models of land-use change driven by biophysical and socioeconomic factors. The three models used for making baseline projections of tropical deforestation at the regional scale are: the Forest Area Change (FAC) model, the Land Use and Carbon Sequestration (LUCS) model, and the Geographical Modeling (GEOMOD) model. The models were used to project deforestation in six tropical regions that featured different ecological and socioeconomic conditions, population dynamics, and uses of the land: (1) northern Belize; (2) Santa Cruz State, Bolivia; (3) Paraná State, Brazil; (4) Campeche, Mexico; (5) Chiapas, Mexico; and (6) Michoacán, Mexico. A comparison of all model outputs across all six regions shows that each model produced quite different deforestation baselines. In general, the simplest FAC model, applied at the national administrative-unit scale, projected the highest amount of forest loss (four out of six regions) and the LUCS model the least amount of loss (four out of five regions). Based on simulations of GEOMOD, we found that readily observable physical and biological factors as well as distance to areas of past disturbance were each about twice as important as either sociological/demographic or economic/infrastructure factors (less observable) in explaining empirical land-use patterns. We propose from the lessons learned, a methodology comprised of three main steps and six tasks can be used to begin developing credible baselines. We also propose that the baselines be projected over a 10-year period because, although projections beyond 10 years are feasible, they are likely to be unrealistic for policy purposes. In the first step, an historic land-use change and deforestation estimate is made by determining the analytic domain (size of the region relative to the size of proposed project), obtaining historic data, analyzing candidate baseline drivers, and identifying three to four major drivers. In the second step, a baseline of where deforestation is likely to occur–a potential land-use change (PLUC) map—is produced using a spatial model such as GEOMOD that uses the key drivers from step one. Then rates of deforestation are projected over a 10-year baseline period based on one of the three models. Using the PLUC maps, projected rates of deforestation, and carbon stock estimates, baseline projections are developed that can be used for project GHG accounting and crediting purposes: The final step proposes that, at agreed interval (e.g., about 10 years), the baseline assumptions about baseline drivers be re-assessed. This step reviews the viability of the 10-year baseline in light of changes in one or more key baseline drivers (e.g., new roads, new communities, new protected area, etc.). The potential land-use change map and estimates of rates of deforestation could be re-done at the agreed interval, allowing the deforestation rates and changes in spatial drivers to be incorporated into a defense of the existing baseline, or the derivation of a new baseline projection.     

Disclosure of climate risk information by the world’s largest companies

The risks related to global climate change are seen as threats to companies, taking into consideration their impact on the return on investment. In order to mitigate climate risk and introduce new opportunities to financiers, companies need to identify, manage, and report climate risks. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the climate risks disclosed by the 100 largest companies in the world, according to the Bloomberg and Price Waterhouse Coopers (PwC 2015) classification, and identify some characteristics of these companies that explain the disclosure level of such information. Preliminary results revealed that of the companies investigated, 14% did not disclose any climate risk information in the Carbon Disclosure Program (CDP) report. Also, from the companies that disclosed information according to the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI), 9.9% did not provide information regarding policies, actions, and strategies for mitigating the risks related to climate change. The results shown by the content analysis suggested that, in general, there is still a low level of disclosure about climate risks by these companies. The final results through econometric instruments and statistical tests indicate that the size of the company or the fact that corporations are from developed countries do not necessarily explain the level of information disclosed. However, the activity sector, the continent, and the efficiency of the Board of Directors are factors that strongly explain the level of climate risk disclosure. We conclude that more effort is needed to encourage an engaging attitude from corporations to develop actions, policies, and strategies to mitigate climate change risks and threats. In addition, the world’s largest companies should make a greater investment in climate risk disclosure.     

Disaster risk from a macroeconomic perspective: a metric for fiscal vulnerability evaluation

The Disaster Deficit Index (DDI) measures macroeconomic and financial risk in a country according to possible catastrophic scenario events. Extreme disasters can generate financial deficit due to sudden and elevated need of resources to restore affected inventories. The DDI captures the relationship between the economic loss that a country could experience when a catastrophic event occurs and the availability of funds to address the situation. The proposed model utilises the procedures of the insurance industry in establishing probable losses, based on critical impacts during a given period of exposure; for economic resilience, the model allows one to calculate the country's financial ability to cope with a critical impact. There are limitations and costs associated with access to resources that one must consider as feasible values according to the country's macroeconomic and financial conditions. This paper presents the DDI model and the results of its application to 19 countries of the Americas and aims to guide governmental decision‐making in disaster risk reduction.     

Identification, analysis and dissemination of information on near misses: A case study in the construction industry

Near misses are well-known for providing a major source of useful information for safety management. They are more frequent events than accidents and their causes may potentially result in an accident under slightly different circumstances. Despite the importance of this type of feedback, there is little knowledge on the characteristics of near misses, and on the use of this information in safety management. This article proposes guidelines for identifying, analyzing and disseminating information on near misses in construction sites. In particular, it is proposed that near misses be analyzed based on four categories: (a) whether or not it was possible to track down the event; (b) the nature of each event, in terms of its physical features (e.g. falling objects); (c) whether they provided positive or negative feedback for the safety management system; and (d) risk, based on the probability and severity associated with each event. The guidelines were devised and tested while a safety management system was being developed in a healthcare building project. The monitoring of near misses was part of a safety performance measurement system. Among the main results, a dramatic increase in both the number and quality of reports stands out after the workforce was systematically encouraged to report. While in the first 4 months of the study – when the workforce was not encouraged to report – there were just 12 reports, during the subsequent 4 months – when the workforce was so encouraged – there were 110 reports, all of them being analyzed based on the four analytical categories proposed.     

Age-dependent effects of carotenoids on sexual ornaments and reproductive performance of a long-lived seabird

Understanding the mechanisms mediating age-dependent reproductive effort in wild animals is a major challenge in evolutionary ecology. The acquisition of molecules able to deter somatic damage could potentially improve reproductive performance, especially in physiologically compromised individuals. Carotenoids are antioxidants and immunoenhancers that animals can only obtain through diet. We tested in male blue-footed boobies whether carotenoid supplementation during incubation improves condition and reproductive performance, particularly of older males. Old birds showed lower levels of peroxidative damage than middle-aged males; however, changes of males' antioxidant capacity and peroxidative damage were not affected by carotenoid supplementation irrespective of age. Experimental old males displayed more colourful feet than control old males after 13 days of first carotenoid supplementation. The effect of carotenoids on male reproductive performance was dependent upon age: young males receiving extra-carotenoids produced chicks with smaller growth rates than control young males, whereas old males receiving extra-carotenoids produced chicks with higher growth rates than control old males. Our results highlight that carotenoids influence the relationship between age and reproductive performance and suggest a positive effect of carotenoids on reproduction of old males.     

Platinum in PM2.5 of the metropolitan area of Mexico City

The increase in platinum (Pt) in the airborne particulate matter with size ≤2.5 µm (PM_2.5) in urban environments may be interpreted as result of the abrasion and deterioration of automobile catalyst. Nowadays, about four million vehicles in Mexico City use catalytic converters, which means that their impact should be considered. In order to evaluate the contribution of Pt to environmental pollution of the metropolitan area of Mexico City (MAMC), airborne PM_2.5 was collected at five different sites in the urban area (NW, NE, C, SW, SE) in 2011 during April (dry-warm season), August (rainy season) and December (dry-cold season). Analytical determinations were carried out using a ICP-MS with a collision cell and kinetic energy discrimination. The analytical and instrument performance was evaluated with standard road dust reference material (BCR-723). Median Pt concentration in the analyzed particulate was is 38.4 pg m^?3 (minimal value 1 pg m^?3 maximal value 79 pg m^?3). Obtained Pt concentrations are higher than those reported for other urban areas. Spatial variation shows that SW had Pt concentration significantly higher than NW and C only. Seasonal variation shows that Pt median was higher in rainy season than in both dry seasons. A comparison of these results with previously reported data of PM₁₀ from 1991 and 2003 in the same studied area shows a worrying increase in the concentration of Pt in the air environment of MAMC.     

Heavy Metals in Macroalgae of Havana's Northern Littoral,Cuba

Copper, iron, lead, manganese, and zinc contents were determined in various phyla of macroalgae typical of the rocky mesolittoral zone of Cuba and widely distributed in the Caribbean Region. the samples were collected in different zones along the shores of Havana City which are more or less influenced by anthropogenic activities. Differences in metal contents were observed due to seasonal variations and differences between sampling sites. of the analyzed species, only one brown alga, Padina vickersiae is considered as a suitable candidate for the monitoring of metal contamination.     

Safe betting: males help dull females only when they raise high-quality offspring

In evolutionary biology, whether parents should enhance or reduce parental care according to mate ornamentation is a subject of great debate. However, the evolution of female ornaments can shed light on this question. In theory, female ornamentation should be traded off against fecundity and thus cannot be wholly informative to males without a direct indication of fecundity. Hence, direct cues of offspring quality should affect the relationship between male investment and female ornamentation. Under this hypothesis, we manipulated two direct cues of offspring quality (egg size and color) after first egg laying in the blue-footed booby and registered male incubation patterns. In this species, foot color is a dynamic signal of current condition and in females is traded off with egg size. We found that males spent more time incubating when paired with dull females but only in nests with large eggs. Males also spent less time incubating small dull eggs. Results indicate that egg size, a direct cue of reproductive value, affected the relationship between male effort and female ornamentation. Males may be willing to help females that have invested in offspring at the expense of ornamentation, which suggests compensation when females are in low condition. Another possibility is that males relax their effort when paired with highly ornamented and fecund females because they have high parenting abilities. Our findings suggest that the information conveyed by female ornaments may depend on direct cues of fecundity. Results also highlight that parental decisions are complex, modulated by a combination of information sources.