RAINFALL POINT INTENSITIES IN AN AIR MASS THUNDERSTORM ENVIRONMENT: WALNUT GULCH,ARIZONA1

ABSTRACT: Point rainfall intensities for a given return period are often used to formulate design storms for rainfall/runoff models to simulate design floods. These design floods are in turn used to design bridges, culverts, and a variety of drainage and flood control structures. The projected rapid growth in the southwestern United States will require very substantial monetary investments in drainage infrastructure. Accurate estimates of point rainfall intensities are critical to ensure both safe designs while not wasting dollars in overdesign. Rainfall point intensities (accumulated rainfall depth over a specified duration) for 5‐, 15‐, 30‐, and 60‐minute durations for the 2‐, 5‐, 10‐, 25‐, 50‐, and 100‐year return periods were determined for southeast Arizona. Thirty‐five years of rainfall record (1961 to 1995) were used in this study. The records came from 20 stations that were grouped into five sets of four independent stations to extend the rainfall records. The stations are in the USDA‐ARS Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed (WGEW), which is representative of large portions of the Southwest whose runoff generation is dominated by air‐mass thunderstorms. The 5‐, 15‐, 30‐, and 60‐minute maximum intensities per year followed log‐normal distributions. The mean point rainfall intensities of the five sets of gages are very close (between 0 and 11 percent) to the NOAA values of the 5‐, 15‐, 30‐, and 60‐minute durations for all return periods. Much larger differences between the mean point rainfall intensities for all durations were found when these results were compared to those of a previous study done with a shorter rainfall record (between 14 and 33 percent for the 25‐, 50‐, and 100‐year return‐periods). The difference between the largest and the smallest values of point rainfall intensities recorded by each group, for all durations, usually increases as the return period increases.     

THE ACCURACY OF WATER USE FORECASTS: EVALUATION AND IMPLICATIONS1

ABSTRACT: Forecasts of 1980 river basin water use presented in the reports of the 1960 Senate Select Committee on National Water Resources and in the Water Resources Council's First National Water Assessment of 1968 were compared to estimates of actual use in 1980 to assess the accuracy of efforts to forecast future water use. Results show that the majority of the forecasts were substantially in error. In general, the First National Assessment forecasts erred by a smaller margin, but tended to repeat the regional patterns of overestimation (underestimation) exhibited in the Senate Select Committee forecasts. Moreover, forecasts of the two groups that came within 20 percent of the 1980 withdrawals, in general were accurate, not because of superior prediction, but because of offsetting errors in forecast components. This performance leads us to conclude that water use forecasts, regardless of the time-frame or the forecast method employed, are likely to always be highly inaccurate. Accordingly, if such forecasting efforts are to be of value in contemporary water resources planning, forecasters should direct their attention toward methods which will illuminate the determinants of the demand for water.     

Organochlorine pesticides and polychlorinated biphenyl congeners in lanner Falco biarmicus feldeggli Schlegel chicks and lanner prey in Sicily, Italy

This paper reports on research conducted to elucidate the risk posed to the Sicilian population of the endangered lanner falcon Falco biarmicus feldeggii Schlegel by organochlorine (OC) pesticides and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), as part of a wider study on contaminant risk to the lanner. Seventeen lanner nest sites were studied in northern and central Sicily. Sampling (in 2005) and analysis were carried out for selected OC pesticides and PCB congeners in lanner chick blood (15 chicks from 6 nest sites) and in two of the main lanner prey species, magpie Pica pica (36 individuals from 6 lanner nest sites) and rock dove Columba livia (10 individuals from 2 lanner nest sites). No OC and PCB residues were found in lanner chick blood above the detection limits, except for one solitary congener PCB153 (21.8 ng g(-1) wet weight), suggesting that these contaminants do not pose a significant risk to lanner chicks in the study area. Magpie and dove appeared mostly free of contamination with OC pesticides, though contamination levels were significantly higher in magpie than in dove. The presence of exceptional DDE and HEOD values in approximately 8% of the P. pica sample, and one P. pica sample showing recent DDT contamination, may indicate a local OC pesticide hazard to some lanner. Future research to further elucidate the contaminant risk to lanner in Sicily is suggested.     

Curtin industrial safety trial: Managerial behavior and program effectiveness

Behavior-based safety has been found universally efficacious when evaluated under controlled conditions. The Curtin Trial aimed to test the general acceptability of behavior-based safety in Australian industry. A 50% failure rate was observed. This paper presents the results of a qualitative analysis of observed managerial behavior in relation to program effectiveness. Field notes taken in the course of 325 hours of participant observation during implementation of behavior-based safety in 9 work areas were analyzed qualitatively and categorized. These data were compared with statistical results of the safety program's effectiveness on improving safe practices and good housekeeping. Nine dimensions to managerial behavior were identified which were associated with program effectiveness. A relatively small number of studies investigating organizational characteristics and safety have found generally similar social environmental features to those observed in this study. Behavior-based safety appears to be effective only in organizations with recognizable managerial styles.     

Nitrate Vulnerable Zones and Nitrate Sensitive Areas: A Policy and Technical Analysis of Groundwater Source Protection in England and Wales

The Nitrate Sensitive Area (NSA) scheme and the more recent Nitrate Vulnerable Zone (NVZ) scheme are responses by the British Government to the growing demands of European legislation on water quality. Both are designed to check nitrate contamination from agriculture at source, with 'polluting' activities being changed or prohibited in areas forming the catchment of waters where the 1980 European Commission (EC) limit of 50 mg/l nitrate (N) is exceeded, or is likely to be exceeded. The NVZ scheme provides protection to surface and ground water,whereas the NSA scheme relates directly to the latter. Furthermore, action programmes to reduce nitrate pollution within NVZs are mandatory and uncompensated, whilst the more strict but voluntary measures of the NSA scheme are compensated. This paper sets out to critically analyse the NVZ scheme, with reference to the NSA scheme and further makes recommendations for an improved nitrate pollution land use control policy in relation to ground water protection. The study area is Minster NVZ on the Isle of Thanet in north east Kent.