Baseline Standardisation with Optimising Energy-System Models

Determining adequate baselinesis a major methodological problem whenquantifying emissions reductions achievedwith the project-based flexibilitymechanisms. Possible methodologies forbaseline setting may be classified intomulti-project and project-specificapproaches. While multi-project approachesprovide baselines for a series of typicalprojects within a certain geographicregion, a sector, or a load range,project-specific (orproject-by-project/single-project)approaches only cover one specific project.Project-by-project baseline approaches havebeen tested extensively within theActivities Implemented Jointly (AIJ) pilotphase; multi-project methodologies, on theother hand, have only rarely been applieddue to the (perceived) political andeconomic complexity of the issue, whichmakes the process of introducingstandardised baselines a very sensitivetask. In particular, there is a lack ofmulti-project baseline approaches takingadvantage of optimising computer modelswithin the electricity sector, even thoughother fields of research have made use ofsuch models quite successfully in the past.Experiences made in the PROBASE projectwith the calculation of standardised,aggregated multi-project baselines forJI/CDM projects using optimising energysystem models are illustrated in this paperfor South Africa, Russia, and Indonesia.Increased transparency and credibility ofstandardised approaches along withpotentially lower transaction costs areidentified as the main arguments for theiruse and further development. In addition,the text gives recommendations wheremodel-based baseline standardisation canpreferentially be applied.